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Indian stock market - prognosis

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Post by rawemotions Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:20 am

[size=12.800000190734863]Where is it headed in 2014 & beyond ?[/size]


[size=12.800000190734863]How will election results impact Indian stock market.[/size]

My gut feel
2014 is likely to a tough financial year for any new government, given the scorched earth policy adopted by Chidu. Even if investment Friendly NDA comes to power, euphoria is likely to be short lived, given the skulduggery adopted by the Congress FM to queer the pitch for the next FM. The combined weight of financial entitlement will make 2014 a bad year for fiscal deficit, short term debt maturity, and unbridled inflation.

Technical trends still indicate an upward trend as of now.

Elections results of either UPA or NDA majority could ensure that long term MA line of 17500 is maintained along with upward trend.  Short term bump would be higher for NDA. Any rag tag coalition supported by Congress on the outside will result in MA support line breakdown and reversal of upward trend.


Even if a stable government comes in, it takes time for any coalition to settle and policies to be framed. That wont happen before Sep./Oct. Key things to watch out for

  • [size=12.800000190734863] Vagaries of monsoon [/size]
  • [size=12.800000190734863] Oil Prices have big impacts on Indian economy. [/size]
  • [size=12.800000190734863] Real-estate  bubble in big cities.[/size]
  • [size=12.800000190734863]Immigration Bill and Visa related bills in US can have big impacts on Service Dominated parts of Indian IT.[/size]
  • [size=12.800000190734863]Inflation and Structural measures to curb Inflation [/size]
  • [size=12.800000190734863]Short term External debt Maturity and debt re-issuance [/size]


If new government takes massive action on Black money, and interest rates and tax policies radically altered to reign in long term inflation and get debt under control, they can alter the dynamics of the stock market. But even then it might be 2015 before any action is seen.

Knowledgeable folks, Please comment.

rawemotions

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Join date : 2011-05-03

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Post by rawemotions Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:23 am

Have no idea why I am seeing these size size/ tags with a bunch of numbers. Admin, please help in getting this fixed.

rawemotions

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Post by TruthSeeker Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:50 am

INXX up 50% YTD?

SCIN, SMIN up 60%?

INDL up 70% this year?

Uff Indeed.

Where does it go from here?

TruthSeeker

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Join date : 2012-08-18

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Post by Merlot Daruwala Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:11 am

TruthSeeker wrote:INXX up 50% YTD?

SCIN, SMIN up 60%?

INDL up 70% this year?

Uff Indeed.

Where does it go from here?

No idea. What does your True Self say? Or are you yet to find him?
Merlot Daruwala
Merlot Daruwala

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