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Job creation is slowing down in India

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Job creation is slowing down in India Empty Job creation is slowing down in India

Post by confuzzled dude Sun Oct 16, 2016 6:16 pm

As per the data released by Labour Bureau early 2016, India created only 1.35 lakh jobs in 2015 in comparison to 4.19 lakh in 2013 and 9 lakh in 2011, the group said in a statement.

"A deeper analysis of the data reveals a rather scary picture. Instead of growing, livelihoods are being lost in India on a daily basis. As many as 550 jobs are lost in India every day (in last four year as per Labour Bureau data) which means that by 2050, jobs in India would have got reduced by 7 million, while population would have grown by 600 million," the statement said.

The data clearly points to the fact that job creation in India is successively slowing down, which is very alarming, it pointed out.
It further said that the multinationals are particularly capitalistic a fact vindicated during investment commitments of USD 225 million made for the next five years during the Make in India Week in However, what went unnoticed is that these investments would translate into creation of only 6 million jobs, it said.

"India needs to go back to the basics and protect sectors like farming, unorganised retail, micro and small enterprises which contribute to 99 per cent of current livelihoods in the country. These sectors need support from the Government not regulation. India needs smart villages and not smart cities in the 21st century," it added.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/7-million-jobs-can-disappear-by-2050-says-a-study/articleshow/54880692.cms

What these idiots don't understand is that these lost jobs will be replaced by high paying jobs, Lord Narendra has magic wand err sudarshan chakra

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Post by confuzzled dude Sun Oct 16, 2016 6:32 pm

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is spending this week promoting his “Make In India” campaign, an ambitious program designed to turn the subcontinent into a “global manufacturing hub.” Modi’s vision is grand: He hopes to create 100 million manufacturing jobs in the next six years and spur the development of a middle class that will power the Indian economy for years to come.

Many are bullish on this vision. I’m not.

I worry that productivity gains arising from automation have made manufacturing-driven development an antiquated approach. It may have worked for China, but India is too late to reap the benefits of this strategy. Technology has progressed so rapidly over the past few decades that only very cheap wages can compete with capital equipment. And to be competitive with the rise of robotics, those wages must stay low — exactly the opposite of what India’s economy needs.
This is all great news for India. But it may not create the jobs Modi needs to achieve his goal. The outlook for the Make In India campaign is not as rosy as recent investments suggest. The country only created 4 million manufacturing jobs between 2010 and 2014. At that rate of growth, the sector would only produce 8 million more jobs by 2022 — far below Modi’s target of 100 million.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/make-in-india-promises-manufacturing-jobs-for-millions-heres-why-it-wont-work/

Going by the latest data from Labot Bureau, Mr. Mansharamani was right on the money with his prediction. Mr. Feku can not go on forever with his fake promises. Soon these lies will catch up him.

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Post by rawemotions Sun Oct 16, 2016 8:07 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is spending this week promoting his “Make In India” campaign, an ambitious program designed to turn the subcontinent into a “global manufacturing hub.” Modi’s vision is grand: He hopes to create 100 million manufacturing jobs in the next six years and spur the development of a middle class that will power the Indian economy for years to come.

Many are bullish on this vision. I’m not.

I worry that productivity gains arising from automation have made manufacturing-driven development an antiquated approach. It may have worked for China, but India is too late to reap the benefits of this strategy. Technology has progressed so rapidly over the past few decades that only very cheap wages can compete with capital equipment. And to be competitive with the rise of robotics, those wages must stay low — exactly the opposite of what India’s economy needs.
This is all great news for India. But it may not create the jobs Modi needs to achieve his goal. The outlook for the Make In India campaign is not as rosy as recent 0investments suggest. The country only created 4 million manufacturing jobs between 2010 and 2014. At that rate of growth, the sector would only produce 8 million more jobs by 2022 — far below Modi’s target of 100 million.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/make-in-india-promises-manufacturing-jobs-for-millions-heres-why-it-wont-work/

Going by the latest data from Labot Bureau, Mr. Mansharamani was right on the money with his prediction. Mr. Feku can not go on forever with his fake promises. Soon these lies will catch up him.
He is correct on both aspects. Job Creation has not caught up in two years.
Automation is a threat for every country not just India. But countries with large unskilled labour like India/China will be affected more.

Make in India is an attempt for manufacturing job creation, precisely an effort to improve the anemic numbers quoted in this article from 2010-2014 under UPA period.
It has not yielded results yet. 

Due to automation, in the long run (say a decade) India needs something else.
In the short run, it is an initiative to improve the manufacturing job growth rate. 

What is positive
Economists quote improvement in business friendliness, streamlined regulations, reforms of outdated laws, CEO's quote that top level officials are helpful.

Interest Rates are coming down to reasonable levels

Not yet working
Capex investment has not taken off.
Many projects still stuck, despite faster approvals from environmental ministry
Exports are not picking up since it is not easy to wean away companies to setup operations. 

Bottlenecks
Land Acquisition law related issues (which congress blocked), and 
lack of labour reforms were the biggest bottleneck quoted here.

Policy ambivalence in certain sectors, Rural demand doubts (due to poor monsoon in the last two years), had been quoted by industrialists for not starting stalled projects. 

Logistics bottlenecks, transportation and port operations are not streamlined yet. This is causing issues in food processing

Pharmaceuticals which are India's strengths is facing massive competition from China. 

Way Forward
Eitherway with heavy competition from China for Jobs, an alternative should be suggested, rather than just lamenting that the strategy is not correct. There is NITI Aayog, and Commerce Ministry. Both should spruce up their socks and work to create a Japanese MITI/Singapore EDB kind of organization to improve job creation and target sectors where we can have employment.

In India probably instead of engineering a shift from Rural areas to Cities, rural employment needs to be increased. 


Threats
a) Biggest threat from automation is likely to be in IT sector, unless the companies move up the value chain.
b) BPO philippines is already #1, and even here automation can fast take away jobs

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Post by confuzzled dude Sun Oct 16, 2016 8:34 pm

rawemotions wrote: Due to automation, in the long run (say a decade) India needs something else.
In the short run, it is an initiative to improve the manufacturing job growth rate.
Hmm.. In short run? Last month, Raymond textiles announced that they are going to cut 10,000 jobs in next three years, they will be replaced by robots

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Post by truthbetold Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:00 pm

raw,

Very objective assessment of ground realities. 

Congress has a right to criticize Modi govt  for being unable to meet people's aspirations. Whether criticism is justified or not, ruling party gets the blame. Opposition party does not have to be moralistic or objective about causes and it will savage Modi about lack of job growth. If Modi does not have enough evidence to show progress, he may well lose next elections. 

CD is not interested in what Modi govt is doing given the world economic growth. He is in following his neta Rahul (and Jagan) and focus on throwing stones. But that is his role as loser opposition party.  He would not agree that the blame lays directly at the feet of Congress party which failed to join the Asian growth in 1970 and 1980s causing India to miss the opportunity of massive manufacturing job growth. 

Indian will never solve its job creation needs through manufacturing. Indian militant labor unions and Idian workforce attitudes make India a less desirable manufacturing location compared to many alternatives to increasingly expensive China. Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines are some examples. Even with all those hindrances, India has a large scope of manufacturing job improvement due to India's internal needs, defense manufacturing, and engineering customization skills. It may grow 20 million or 30 million jobs instead of 100 million jobs predicted by Indian govt ( or 8 million predicted by Vikram). These are good jobs that are worth pursuing.

India is already on the forefront of service Industry jobs. Software and BPO sectors provided massive employment and huge foreign exchange cushion. India also provided huge labor force to many countries earning huge foreign exchange. 

As you correctly pointed, the current need is to show new areas of opportunity.  Indian govt is doing its best by reducing corruption at top levels and maintaining serious fiscal discipline. Its efforts to reduce legacy bank non performing loans will take away one or two percentage of economic growth (again thanks to congress corruption).  Infrastructure projects, transportation (railways, shipping, and surface) projects and defense manufacturing projects were pushed ahead to create new opportunities despite lack of Capex growth. 

Modi govt is thinking and doing what is sensible given the legacy problems and world economic (anemic) growth.

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Post by truthbetold Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:08 pm

truthbetold wrote:raw,

Very objective assessment of ground realities. 

Congress has a right to criticize Modi govt  for being unable to meet people's aspirations. Whether criticism is justified or not, ruling party gets the blame. Opposition party does not have to be moralistic or objective about causes and it will savage Modi about lack of job growth. If Modi does not have enough evidence to show progress, he may well lose next elections. 

CD is not interested in what Modi govt is doing given the world low economic growth. He is following his neta Rahul (and Jagan) and focus on throwing stones. But that is his role as loser opposition party.  He would not agree that the blame lays directly at the feet of Congress party which failed to join the Asian growth in 1970s and 1980s causing India to miss the opportunity of massive manufacturing job growth. 

Indian will never solve its job creation needs through manufacturing. Indian militant labor unions and Indian workforce attitudes make India a less desirable manufacturing location compared to many alternatives to increasingly expensive China. Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines are some examples. Even with all those hindrances, India has a large scope of manufacturing job improvement due to India's internal needs, defense manufacturing, and engineering customization skills. It may grow 20 million or 30 million jobs instead of 100 million jobs predicted by Indian govt ( or 8 million predicted by Vikram). These are good jobs that are worth pursuing.

India is already on the forefront of service Industry jobs. Software and BPO sectors provided massive employment and huge foreign exchange cushion. India also provided huge labor force to many countries earning huge foreign exchange. 

Modi govt is thinking and doing what is sensible given the legacy problems and world economic (anemic) growth. Indian govt is doing its best by reducing corruption at top levels and maintaining serious fiscal discipline. Its efforts to reduce legacy bank non performing loans will take away one or two percentage of economic growth (again thanks to congress corruption).  Infrastructure projects, transportation (railways, shipping, and surface) projects and defense manufacturing projects were pushed ahead to create new opportunities despite lack of Capex growth. 

 As you correctly pointed, the current need is to show new areas of opportunity. 

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Post by confuzzled dude Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:09 pm

TBT, please cut out your nonsense and tell me, if it is a sensible thing to keep repeating (a lie) that make in India will create $100 million jobs? Isn't it more of a political propaganda than working towards country's future?

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Post by truthbetold Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:17 pm

CD,

Read what I said about the role of opposition party. Ruling party has to sell its policies and in many cases they use best case scenario. 

Unknown " Focus on what you can control".

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Post by confuzzled dude Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:39 pm

truthbetold wrote:CD,

Read what I said about the role of opposition party. Ruling party has to sell its policies and in many cases they use best case scenario. 

Unknown " Focus on what you can control".
Most of the FDI inflows are focused on profiting off of consumer base than creating jobs, for example, would Amazon India create more jobs than it will take away from unorganized retail?

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Post by truthbetold Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:18 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:CD,

Read what I said about the role of opposition party. Ruling party has to sell its policies and in many cases they use best case scenario. 

Unknown " Focus on what you can control".
Most of the FDI inflows are focused on profiting off of consumer base than creating jobs, for example, would Amazon India create more jobs than it will take away from unorganized retail?
 Similar arguments were made in 1970s and 1980s, while South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand created huge manufacturing base for export to western countries. 

Let us assume that Flipkart is more successful and drives away Amazon, would that create more jobs in India? Whatever job loss is due to evolving technology and India should learn to cope with those technologies. Or India can turn to luddite philosophy and destroy machines to save jobs.

[size=32]Lud·dite[/size]
ˈlədˌīt/
noun

[list=lr_dct_sf_sens]
[*]a member of any of the bands of English workers who destroyed machinery, especially in cotton and woolen mills, that they believed was threatening their jobs (1811–16).

  • a person opposed to increased industrialization or new technology.
    "a small-minded Luddite resisting progress"



[/list]

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Post by confuzzled dude Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:39 pm

The point here is about this administration's nonstop bragging about FDI inflows (as vehicles for job creation)  without paying attention to the true nature of those. Some will create jobs but some won't so summing up all the inflows won't tell us the real story

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Post by truthbetold Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:36 pm

CD,

Inflows are like imports. Some imports such as diamond raw materials create jobs and exports. Some like Mercedes Benz cars take away from money from local economy.  But countries do not separate imports into job creating imports and money flying away imports. 

In general, FDI are considered good and India has to learn to create follow up opportunities from these investments. 

Capitalists go where profit is.  It is upto the locals to create the follow up initial FDI.

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Post by truthbetold Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:39 pm

truthbetold wrote:CD,

Inflows are like imports. Some imports such as diamond raw materials create jobs and exports. Some like Mercedes Benz cars take away money from local economy.  But countries do not separate imports into job creating imports and money flying away imports. 

Capitalists go where profit is.  It is upto the locals to create the follow up to initial investiment.

In general, FDIs are considered good and India has to learn to create follow up opportunities from these investments. 


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Post by confuzzled dude Thu Oct 27, 2016 10:47 am

Mumbai: This development could not come at a more inopportune time than this. A day after the country was ranked a lowly 130th globally in terms of ease of doing business by the World Bank, New Taipei-based electronics giants Foxconn is likely to back out from investing $5 billion in Maharashtra.

Although the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer — which makes Apple's iPhone and iPad — had entered into a pact with the state government in August last year, the company is yet to start its production unit in the "absence" of customers.

The lack of enthusiasm from the Taiwanese firm to invest could prove to be a major jolt to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Make in India programme. It is hardly a good news for the Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis as well who is already wading through a myriad of problems.
http://www.firstpost.com/business/foxconn-likely-to-shy-away-from-5-bn-investment-in-maharashtra-jolt-to-modi-fadnavis-3074688.html

After Ford, GM, it is Foxconn's turn now. Looks like Modinomics are either fake or suck.

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