Post Demonitization - latest status

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Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by truthbetold on Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:16 pm

You can read and get what news media is reporting. I did little bit of my own survey.

Talked to family, friends, politicos and non politicos. Mostly middle class, employees, business people, and people's representatives. Includes people who talked to  informal sector workers.

People located in Telangana (mostly Hyderabad),  and A.P. (Five different towns of different sizes including Vijayawada).

1.  Almost all of the middle class people said (today) they have no problems in conducting daily business (Going to work, eating out, groceries, and other services).

2. Many of the above people said they did go to bank to get some money few days back and had to endure lines. 

3. Increased usage of digital/credit card transactions.

4. Small business are not much impacted as all most all transactions are done through banks.

5. There are still some lines at banks but lines are getting smaller.

6.  Many people in informal sector, daily wage earners, are very supportive of demonitization and hope it will help them in long run. 

7.  Left politicos said that Modi is not doing this to help common man. This is a scam.  One even said some of the supporters were pre-informed. 

Overall, IN AP and T area, Modi's demonitization is not viewed negatively. Life is returning to normal.

This is a small sample of my acquaintances. I am not claiming this sample reflects local or national sentiment. But wanted to share with you. 

Would like to hear what you are hearing from your acquaintances.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by confuzzled dude on Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:22 pm

Upper middle class/Rich living in a big city = Flawed Survey

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by confuzzled dude on Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:30 pm

From what I gather Income Tax officials had a windfall in this. They're cutting deals with black money hoarders to enrich themselves.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by truthbetold on Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:07 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:From what I gather Income Tax officials had a windfall in this. They're cutting deals with black money hoarders to enrich themselves.
I also heard that a recent marriage spent 500 crores. Some of it is earned during your favorite YSR tenure as AP CM. So what is new?

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by confuzzled dude on Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:11 pm

truthbetold wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:From what I gather Income Tax officials had a windfall in this. They're cutting deals with black money hoarders to enrich themselves.
I also heard that a recent marriage spent 500 crores. Some of it is earned during your favorite YSR tenure as AP CM. So what is new?
Oh! Yes Let's not talk about his BJP ties.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by truthbetold on Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:14 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:From what I gather Income Tax officials had a windfall in this. They're cutting deals with black money hoarders to enrich themselves.
I also heard that a recent marriage spent 500 crores. Some of it is earned during your favorite YSR tenure as AP CM. So what is new?
Oh! Yes Let's not talk about his BJP ties.
Who stopped you? (or should I say who bribed you?)

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by confuzzled dude on Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:27 pm

truthbetold wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:From what I gather Income Tax officials had a windfall in this. They're cutting deals with black money hoarders to enrich themselves.
I also heard that a recent marriage spent 500 crores. Some of it is earned during your favorite YSR tenure as AP CM. So what is new?
Oh! Yes Let's not talk about his BJP ties.
Who stopped you? (or should I say who bribed you?)
I assume, your biases.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by truthbetold on Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:36 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:Upper middle class/Rich living in a big city = Flawed Survey
http://www.huffingtonpost.in/2016/11/19/demonetisation-queues-getting-shorter-at-banks-but-long-wait-at/?utm_hp_ref=in-homepage

looks like Huffingtonpost, no friend of modi, also spoke to 'Upper middle class/Rich living in a big city'.  Or may be you are full of it. 

CD,

I am tired of news papers repeating old news.  I did not claim that my survey is reflective of any larger segment of population. It is one source of my information and I shared it with you. Instead of commenting about people you have not met, why don't you give us some factual data from your personal interactions.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by truthbetold on Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:38 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:From what I gather Income Tax officials had a windfall in this. They're cutting deals with black money hoarders to enrich themselves.
I also heard that a recent marriage spent 500 crores. Some of it is earned during your favorite YSR tenure as AP CM. So what is new?
Oh! Yes Let's not talk about his BJP ties.
Who stopped you? (or should I say who bribed you?)
I assume, your biases.
How did my biases stopped your desire to act? or is there no desire on your part to act?

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by Merlot Daruwala on Sat Nov 19, 2016 7:36 pm

The opinion of the middle classes and people like us is hugely positive. I've found myself in the odd position of defending this and praising Modi for his political courage (and getting called a bhakt). But small businessmen, traders and those in real estate are furious. The execution has been just pathetic. The worst victims are the very poor spl in rural areas. All daily wage work has come to a standstill for lack of cash to pay them. Retailers at every level talk of a 70% hit as people conserve cash and only buy if card/online option is available. And the latter is something only the urban affluent use anyway.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by truthbetold on Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:30 pm

MD,

Couple of well known real estate business people in Hyderabad felt comfortable and thought it is a positive in the long term due to the possibility of interest rates coming down. 

There are anecdotal stories of informal sector problems.  But no well researched stories yet in media.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by truthbetold on Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:31 pm

MD,

Couple of well known real estate business people in Hyderabad felt comfortable and thought it is a positive in the long term due to the possibility of interest rates coming down. 

There are anecdotal stories of informal sector problems.  But no well researched stories yet in media.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by confuzzled dude on Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:50 pm

truthbetold wrote:MD,

Couple of well known real estate business people in Hyderabad felt comfortable and thought it is a positive in the long term due to the possibility of interest rates coming down. 

There are anecdotal stories of informal sector problems.  But no well researched stories yet in media.
Anecdotal?! You expect newspapers to check business ledger before publishing or what?

Well known RE business people, what else do you think they will say? BTW, we all know that 80-90% of RE transactions in India involve unaccounted cash transfers. Which means everyone suffers.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by Merlot Daruwala on Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:02 am

truthbetold wrote:MD,

Couple of well known real estate business people in Hyderabad felt comfortable and thought it is a positive in the long term due to the possibility of interest rates coming down. 

There are anecdotal stories of informal sector problems.  But no well researched stories yet in media.

Ya, realty firms are putting on a brave face but their stocks are down 20%+ in the last 10 days and more punishment likely in Jan/Feb when they report a disastrous Dec qtr.

In most like Mbai where real estate transactions entailed a 25-30% component, the demonetization has sucked all oxygen from the room, paving the way for a sharp price correction.

I had enquired about a new property last month and had backed off after the seller demanded 20% in cash. Last week, while I was out of the country, I saw multiple missed calls and SMSes from the broker, saying the seller is now ready to deal. Ha.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by truthbetold on Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:57 pm

MD/CD,

Policy of demonitization: I feel it is a good policy.  You feel it is not.

Implementation of Demonitization:  Every body, except Venkaiah and Jaitley, thinks it is badly handled. 

Real estate , informal sectors,  big item sales, daily wage workers and rural areas are hurt and will hit GDP for this quarter and may be another one or even two more quarters.  We all agree on that.

It is a fact that common man was subjected to most of the pain even though they did not cause the problem. 

However,  to their credit Indians handled it very well. They understood the policy and worked through it rather than riot on streets. After 10 days, lines are getting short and life is getting to be normal. There is expectation that real estate prices will come down and Mortgage rate will also come down increasing home affordability.  Current account deficit may improve. 

BJP will pay a price for its shoddy implementation.  It may see a backlash in 5 state elections ( even though people alleged BJP took this step to gain advantage in those elections).  BJP may be able to recover for next general election if it minimizes the implementation problems in the next few weeks and benefits such as lower mortgage rates, increased tax revenues and more financial transparency becomes reality in the coming year. If economy recovers by middle to end of 2017,  BJP could survive demonitization.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by confuzzled dude on Sun Nov 20, 2016 8:53 pm

truthbetold wrote:MD/CD,

Policy of demonitization: I feel it is a good policy.  You feel it is not.

Implementation of Demonitization:  Every body, except Venkaiah and Jaitley, thinks it is badly handled. 

Real estate , informal sectors,  big item sales, daily wage workers and rural areas are hurt and will hit GDP for this quarter and may be another one or even two more quarters.  We all agree on that.

It is a fact that common man was subjected to most of the pain even though they did not cause the problem. 

However,  to their credit Indians handled it very well. They understood the policy and worked through it rather than riot on streets. After 10 days, lines are getting short and life is getting to be normal. There is expectation that real estate prices will come down and Mortgage rate will also come down increasing home affordability.  Current account deficit may improve. 

BJP will pay a price for its shoddy implementation.  It may see a backlash in 5 state elections ( even though people alleged BJP took this step to gain advantage in those elections).  BJP may be able to recover for next general election if it minimizes the implementation problems in the next few weeks and benefits such as lower mortgage rates, increased tax revenues and more financial transparency becomes reality in the coming year. If economy recovers by middle to end of 2017,  BJP could survive demonitization.
Hmm.. What about the scores of people that already bought at exorbitant prices? This reminds me of Telugu saying కొండ నాలుకకి మందేస్తే ఉన్న నాలుక పోయినట్టు

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by southindian on Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:27 am

Merlot Daruwala wrote:The opinion of the middle classes and people like us is hugely positive. I've found myself in the odd position of defending this and praising Modi for his political courage (and getting called a bhakt). But small businessmen, traders and those in real estate are furious. The execution has been just pathetic. The worst victims are the very poor spl in rural areas. All daily wage work has come to a standstill for lack of cash to pay them. Retailers at every level talk of a 70% hit as people conserve cash and only buy if card/online option is available. And the latter is something only the urban affluent use anyway.
Yup! Off course.

Sure! The execution could have been better, but the more people govt. involved, the murkier it would get.

I was talking to someone who said the Government gave 3 extensions up to September end to declare and deposit monies uin banks. As usual, people ignored.

ALL simple, playing-by-the-rules people are happy. MANY normal (non-corrupt) are not. People who hoarded cash for small tax savings are also roped in. They vote for all parties (BJP, Congress and others).

The Mayawatis, Mulayams, Mamtas, Sonias, Jayas don't now how to cry.

Govt. can still win this by making cash available faster to remote and rural areas.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by Merlot Daruwala on Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:43 am

confuzzled dude wrote:Hmm.. What about the scores of people that already bought at exorbitant prices? This reminds me of Telugu saying కొండ నాలుకకి మందేస్తే ఉన్న నాలుక పోయినట్టు

Bingo!! The hit on asset values impacts everyone, including folks who invested with their hard-earned, post-tax savings.

So far, the sheer schadenfreude of watching the cash hoarders scurrying frantically to avoid the tax net has kept this realization from sinking in. But the signs are there for all to see. The stock markets have wiped out all of the year's gains already and I expect more correction in the next 3 months. The real estate mkt will be moribund for the next 3 years at least, especially after the new Benami Property Act starts biting.

At some point, the middle and upper middle classes -- who are so far only mildly discomfited by the long lines -- will sit up and realize that they are collateral damage too. Modi better have some plan to assuage them. Rumor has it that he'll cut income taxes at that point as a sop. Let's see.

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by truthbetold on Tue Nov 22, 2016 8:58 pm

Everyone who owned property will lose some value. Most people understand and will take in stride. Most properties are not traded on day to day basis. Speculation will go down. Modi has nothing to apologize for reduction of speculation.


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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by confuzzled dude on Tue Nov 22, 2016 9:28 pm

Speculation?! Who is talking about speculation

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

Post by FluteHolder on Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:20 am

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Re: Post Demonitization - latest status

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