Trump's China strategy

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Trump's China strategy

Post by truthbetold on Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:36 pm

Media jumped all over Trump over Taiwan president's call. ( Dems are  still licking their wounds and left the role of opposition to media)I do not if one can believe Trump's accepting call was done after well thought out policy discussion inside his camp. I also do not know if he will continue this undiplomatic acerbic strategy. But it cannot be completely dismissed as immature. 

In 1970s and 1980s , USA and World treated China with Kid gloves to bring it into world community. Goals of this strategy were (a) Pull China to American side in cold war  (b) Help China's economy to adopt capitalist economic model and (c) Hope a developed Chinese economy will be opened to western goods. 

In 2016,  Goals (a) and (b) were met successfully. End of cold war and near 10% growth resulted in the second largest economy in the world. However, western expectation that China will also abandon its single party dictatorship has failed. Communist party is still maintaining a strong control of China and market is still government controlled. 

China allowed US and western companies to make stuff in china helping create millions of jobs for Chinese.   USA and  west benefited from cheap products and low cost products were now entrenched in the daily lives of people. 

China now needs western markets to continue to sell its products. It no longer needs to treated with kid gloves as it is fully integrated into world economy. It cannot live without west. But China limits its internal markets to western goods. Over the past 40 years China sucked western labor content but is not allowing its vast new markets to be used to help create any labor (or jobs) in western countries. 

If US takes an aggressive stance to force China to open its markets in exchange for continued access to US markets, it may bring good results. 

The problem with such strategy is what are the products US companies can sell in China?  Facebook may benefit from a change in Chinese attitude. What else?  US will not sell arms to China and China will not buy arms from US due to adversarial relationship. 

If US continues this policy for longer time, will people support a strategy that will make products they use every day become more expensive? Another argument I heard is that Chinese may take punishment for much longer than US citizens. 

But if US stands firm,  China may be forced to concede in few areas to avoid messy trade war. We can only hope and pray, US govt will do its home work and evolve a smart strategy based on facts and objective evidence.

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Re: Trump's China strategy

Post by Idéfix on Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:21 pm

I do not if one can believe Trump's accepting call was done after well thought out policy discussion inside his camp.
It was well-thought out in the Trump camp -- just not the American national interest, but the Trump business interest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/04/world/asia/taiwan-city-planning-makeover-says-trump-agent-showed-interest.html

If US continues this policy for longer time, will people support a strategy that will make products they use every day become more expensive?
No way. Nobody enjoys spending time at Walmart, but it is the nation's largest retailer because of everyday low prices.
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