mooch gone?

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mooch gone?

Post by Propagandhi711 on Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:44 pm

CNN reporting it. haha@that fast talking NY midget on speed getting the fast boot

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Re: mooch gone?

Post by MaxEntropy_Man on Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:54 pm

LOL! Gen Kelly effect?
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Re: mooch gone?

Post by garam_kuta on Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:07 pm

spicey back...unlikely?

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Re: mooch gone?

Post by Idéfix on Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:33 pm

https://www.instagram.com/p/BXBU8i9l06D/

Max was spot on... he fired himself to stop the leaks.
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Re: mooch gone?

Post by Propagandhi711 on Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:52 pm

whitehouse reality tv, trump style. atleast we're all having so much fun while waiting for the winning to kick in.

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Re: mooch gone?

Post by Idéfix on Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:56 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:whitehouse reality tv, trump style. atleast we're all having so much fun while waiting for the winning to kick in.
I am already enjoying all the winning, and am afraid I can't take all this winning for much longer. Last week was one of the winningest weeks in politics. Let us see if this week beats last week.
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Re: mooch gone?

Post by Propagandhi711 on Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:06 pm

Idéfix wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:whitehouse reality tv, trump style. atleast we're all having so much fun while waiting for the winning to kick in.
I am already enjoying all the winning, and am afraid I can't take all this winning for much longer. Last week was one of the winningest weeks in politics. Let us see if this week beats last week.

even if you assume the dollar drop is due to ECB winding down their QE + pro EU french election result + stronger EU economic outlook + slower than expected fed rate increases this year, I dont understand why the WH turmoil isnt reflected in S&P...are they still betting on his corporate tax cuts & repatriation going thru? that must be the only positive the stock market must be looking forward to.

anyway I'm making a large bet on gold, one of the biggest I've ever made. hope it rallies into mid oct/nov.

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Re: mooch gone?

Post by Idéfix on Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:19 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:whitehouse reality tv, trump style. atleast we're all having so much fun while waiting for the winning to kick in.
I am already enjoying all the winning, and am afraid I can't take all this winning for much longer. Last week was one of the winningest weeks in politics. Let us see if this week beats last week.

even if you assume the dollar drop is due to ECB winding down their QE + pro EU french election result + stronger EU economic outlook + slower than expected fed rate increases this year, I dont understand why the WH turmoil isnt reflected in S&P...are they still betting on his corporate tax cuts & repatriation going thru? that must be the only positive the stock market must be looking forward to.

anyway I'm making a large bet on gold, one of the biggest I've ever made. hope it rallies into mid oct/nov.
Yes, corporate tax cuts are priced into the market right now. Border adjustment, repatriation and individual rates seem to be wild cards at this point. There have a lot of ground to cover.

My sense is that they will pull this one off. McConnell and Ryan will have hell to pay if they can't get so-called tax reform through. Their corporate owners don't care that much about Obamacare, but they will hold the party establishment accountable for their tax cuts. They may even turn on Trump and push for a coup to install Pence if they see this part of their wish-list blocked.

Trump is not helping them by insisting that they come back to Obamacare repeal after the August recess. There is limited time on the calendar, and Congress needs to raise the debt ceiling and tackle the budget for fiscal 2018 starting in September. If he seriously makes them spend precious time on another quixotic push to repeal Obamacare, we might see the markets start to doubt tax reform happening before the election. The good thing about "tax reform" is that it can be tackled in early 2018 as well, but if a fully drafted bill is not moving through committees this fall, it is doubtful they can pull it off before next spring. After that all bets are off because of the mid-terms.

I bought a decent amount of gold in the first half of October, given the uncomfortably-high odds of Trump winning. That position has been under water for months now, but I see that it is treading water now. I am going to hang on to it.
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Re: mooch gone?

Post by Propagandhi711 on Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:10 pm

Idéfix wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:whitehouse reality tv, trump style. atleast we're all having so much fun while waiting for the winning to kick in.
I am already enjoying all the winning, and am afraid I can't take all this winning for much longer. Last week was one of the winningest weeks in politics. Let us see if this week beats last week.

even if you assume the dollar drop is due to ECB winding down their QE + pro EU french election result + stronger EU economic outlook + slower than expected fed rate increases this year, I dont understand why the WH turmoil isnt reflected in S&P...are they still betting on his corporate tax cuts & repatriation going thru? that must be the only positive the stock market must be looking forward to.

anyway I'm making a large bet on gold, one of the biggest I've ever made. hope it rallies into mid oct/nov.
Yes, corporate tax cuts are priced into the market right now. Border adjustment, repatriation and individual rates seem to be wild cards at this point. There have a lot of ground to cover.

My sense is that they will pull this one off. McConnell and Ryan will have hell to pay if they can't get so-called tax reform through. Their corporate owners don't care that much about Obamacare, but they will hold the party establishment accountable for their tax cuts. They may even turn on Trump and push for a coup to install Pence if they see this part of their wish-list blocked.

Trump is not helping them by insisting that they come back to Obamacare repeal after the August recess. There is limited time on the calendar, and Congress needs to raise the debt ceiling and tackle the budget for fiscal 2018 starting in September. If he seriously makes them spend precious time on another quixotic push to repeal Obamacare, we might see the markets start to doubt tax reform happening before the election. The good thing about "tax reform" is that it can be tackled in early 2018 as well, but if a fully drafted bill is not moving through committees this fall, it is doubtful they can pull it off before next spring. After that all bets are off because of the mid-terms.

I bought a decent amount of gold in the first half of October, given the uncomfortably-high odds of Trump winning. That position has been under water for months now, but I see that it is treading water now. I am going to hang on to it.

agree, no tax cuts and there will be a regime change. funnily, the charts on SPX also agree - expecting a decent sized haircut for SPX from 2500 level to about 2350 or thereabouts in August followed by a decent size rally for Q4. if tax reform goes through then 2018 should be an orderly drop of about 15-20% which is a typical recession year.

regarding gold, I think current rally off july lows (1203) will continue till mid oct or nov to maybe 1380 or so...then a drop into dec followed by a rise next year corresponding to SPX drop. been trading miners a little for past two months profitably, but now planning to hold on while praying to allah, jewish god and baby jesus.

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Re: mooch gone?

Post by Idéfix on Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:17 pm

Makes sense. I have been holding the GLD ETF, will probably keep it for the next 2-3 months and then reassess.

I have very high exposure to emerging tech at this point, am worried about that taking a really bad beating if the market thinks the US economy is in a bad place. TSLA, FAANGs, etc. that I picked up 1-2 years ago. I keep debating when to unload them, but have been holding on so far. The volatility on some of the recent-IPO tech stocks is crazy.
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Re: mooch gone?

Post by confuzzled dude on Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:20 pm

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:LOL! Gen Kelly effect?
Kelly thus far has been proven as one heckuva useless guy; he was clueless and lacked spine during travel ban. That [travel ban] was a fine example of his leadership skills or lack thereof during chaos.

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