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Post by Propagandhi711 on Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:50 pm

my guess is today's the top in S&P, market to resume it's upwards climb in Q2 after 10-15% correction. thoughts?

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Post by Idéfix on Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:41 pm

I think we are very near the top even if we are not exactly there. My holdings are mostly in tech and related stocks, plus some some ETFs. I cut my holdings in AMZN, AAPL and TSLA in half a couple weeks ago. I am on the verge of selling NFLX, GOOG and OKTA altogether. I can't decide whether to get totally out or hang on to some of these tech positions; will probably keep holding on EEM (emerging markets ETF) and GLD (gold ETF). I may end up putting in buys at between 10 and 20% lower than current prices on whatever I end up selling this week.

Why do you think the market will resume its climb in Q2 specifically? It seems to me like a really overheated market with more than 10-15% correction coming.
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Post by MaxEntropy_Man on Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:39 pm

I really envy people who can trust their gut about such things. The only thing I am capable of doing is asset allocation and passive investing and relying on the magic of time. Good for you guys.

In my entire investing career, I tried to time the market once and I got burned badly. Never again!
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Post by MaxEntropy_Man on Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:46 pm

Are price/earnings or price/book values of stocks in the s&p 500 index very different from historical averages?
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Post by Propagandhi711 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:29 pm

I dont think PE, PS type metrics are important in any market. only things that matter are sentiment, direction of money flow and interest rates for price action on stocks.

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Post by Idéfix on Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:55 pm

S&P 500 down almost 2% today. Is it a knee-jerk reaction to government dysfunction, or the beginning of a big correction?

I got out a little over a week ago, not sure when to get back in. In the next few weeks, Congress has to deal with DACA and the budget, as well the debt ceiling. I don't have confidence that this Congress and president can figure it all out in time. I still have plenty of exposure to the markets on my 401k, so I am thinking I will stay mostly cash in my brokerage account until the debt ceiling is raised.
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Post by Propagandhi711 on Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:16 pm

according to some technical indicators I follow, this correction should take us into end of Q1, early Q2. I think setting low buy targets and waiting for a panic sell is best course of action here if you have lots of cash.

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Post by silvermani on Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:09 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:according to some technical indicators I follow, this correction should take us into end of Q1, early Q2. I think setting low buy targets and waiting for a panic sell is best course of action here if you have lots of cash.
Any names you can suggest?
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Post by Propagandhi711 on Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:23 pm

think VIX is going to run this quarter with a vengeance. it's been up 70% over past 3 weeks since I bought a small piece. I'd stick with the secular growth stories in tech tho - nvda, amzn are my favorites to pickup after 15% correction.

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Post by Idéfix on Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:14 pm

Vix is a good idea for these times, will pick it up!
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Post by FluteHolder on Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:45 pm

So the  Memo/FBI/WH Feud causing the drop?

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Post by Propagandhi711 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:28 pm

fucking vixx, up 115% today

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Post by Hellsangel on Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:29 pm

FluteHolder wrote:So the  Memo/FBI/WH Feud causing the drop?
Algorithms.
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Post by FluteHolder on Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:26 pm

Are you sure it is algo? On what basis? Bounce/Breach of certain S/R levels? or any volume or volatility?

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Post by Hellsangel on Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:29 pm

FluteHolder wrote:Are you sure it is algo? On what basis? Bounce/Breach of certain S/R levels? or any volume or volatility?
You should make some friends who work for Hedge funds Smile
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Post by FluteHolder on Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:29 pm

Then it does not amount to insider trading? I have no friends at top to save me from charges of insider trading....

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Post by Hellsangel on Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:31 pm

FluteHolder wrote:Then it does not amount to insider trading? I have no friends at top to save me from charges of insider trading....
By definition, Insider trading is if you actually trade based on inside information.
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Post by TruthSeeker on Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:55 am

When U attempt to "trade" i.e. play short term, it can indeed be all about sentiments, news, Trump, and what not.

P/E ratio is so important that Robert Schiller was even awarded Nobel prize for his research on it.

Here is my take on it:

When you deposit $100 in the bank, are you not careful to know what your interest return is? Lets say in ING it is 1.1% now, and in Wells Fargo it is 0.001%. 

P/E ratio to me is the same. The return. If I invest $100 in a company, how much does that company earn on this? With an Earning Per Share (EPS) of $5, it earns 5%, so Price to Earnings (P/E) is $100/$5 = 20x; same company earning $20 on my $100 investment would have a P/E of 5x. Lower the better.

Benjamin Graham says to pick companies which have a P/E ratio of no more than 15. 

Simplistically put, P/E tells you how expensive a stock is. Schiller won the Nobel Prize saying that one should look at the last 10 years average, and not current scenario.

In any case, Ignoring P/E is like saying I want to open a CD with a bank, or take a loan to buy a home but do not care what the APR is?

Stocks are more complicated, I understand. 

But thats the importance of this ratio.

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Post by silvermani on Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:56 pm

Great call, Prop! Right on the mark.
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Post by southindian on Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:36 am

silvermani wrote:Great call, Prop! Right on the mark.
Pussy-grabber's news outlet has already blamed Obama through Hannity for this Stock-market fall. Interestingly, Pussy-grabber credited himself for gains in the stock-market throughout last year. Tells us about the group you are associated with. Smile
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Post by smArtha on Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:43 am

Propagandhi711 wrote:think VIX is going to run this quarter with a vengeance. it's been up 70% over past 3 weeks since I bought a small piece. I'd stick with the secular growth stories in tech tho - nvda, amzn are my favorites to pickup after 15% correction.

This is what Mr. Cramer thinks - VIX and the related instruments signalling the end of sell off

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/cramer-these-4-securities-will-signal-the-end-of-the-sell-off.html

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man on Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:03 am

I picked up AAPL yesterday at $155.
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Post by smArtha on Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:33 am

BABA, FB, GOOGL in IRA portfolio all down by about 10-20% since their recent peaks. Any sell, hold recos on these or buy other techs viz. NFLX, AMZN, AAPL for portfolio diversity in the Sector?

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Post by rasāsvāda on Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:43 am

my IRA went down 2% today, and i think it went down 2% yesterday too.

So I mean. Once I am no longer a competitive programmer, I will sell my house and cut all my losses, then move into an extended-stay motel and do multiple end-jobs. The kind where i am doing manual jobs all day sporting super gray hair, then come home with pizza and beer and watch tv while cursing at the government, in between step out to smoke (maybe i will pick up that habit too). in appropriate seasons, will find a job on one of those cruise ships, so that i could travel while at work. Hopefully ex-hubs will be able to support college of younger. Hopefully older will be done with school by then.

this drama was sponsored by: yet another 700 dollar repair done at home

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man on Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:04 pm

smArtha wrote:BABA, FB, GOOGL in IRA portfolio all down by about 10-20% since their recent peaks. Any sell, hold recos on these or buy other techs viz. NFLX, AMZN, AAPL for portfolio diversity in the Sector?

For the next few years I like NOC and GD.
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Post by smArtha on Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:56 pm

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
smArtha wrote:BABA, FB, GOOGL in IRA portfolio all down by about 10-20% since their recent peaks. Any sell, hold recos on these or buy other techs viz. NFLX, AMZN, AAPL for portfolio diversity in the Sector?

For the next few years I like NOC and GD.

Thanks Max. These have done very well over the recent 5 years or so. Will research on them. Thanks for the recommendation again.

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man on Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:19 pm

smArtha wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
smArtha wrote:BABA, FB, GOOGL in IRA portfolio all down by about 10-20% since their recent peaks. Any sell, hold recos on these or buy other techs viz. NFLX, AMZN, AAPL for portfolio diversity in the Sector?

For the next few years I like NOC and GD.

Thanks Max. These have done very well over the recent 5 years or so. Will research on them. Thanks for the recommendation again.

60% of a previous 401 k that I rolled over into an IRA is in GD stock. I have been long GD for upwards of 17 years.
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Post by Idéfix on Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:51 am

I have limit buy orders on these tech (or very tech-like) stocks: AMZN, NVDA, AAPL, NFLX, OKTA, BCOR, TSLA, GOOG. All at 15-20% below peak, TSLA at 25% below peak. None of them has hit yet. I sold all of these stocks between 2 and 3 weeks ago after holding them for a couple of years. Other tech stocks I watch are: DATA, SPLK, WDAY.

My 401k is another story altogether. It won't let me pick individual stocks, so I put it all in an actively-managed retirement plan for 2040. That is down about 2% year-to-date.
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Post by Idéfix on Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:57 am

This article from November is a good read... helps explain (with 20/20 hindsight) some of the sentiment about interest rates.

https://www.businessinsider.in/Wall-Streets-faith-in-the-Fed-might-soon-be-tested/articleshow/61807642.cms

Federal Reserve turnover is unusually high, with four seats on the central bank's board still awaiting presidential nominations.

Many market participants welcome Jerome Powell, the new chair, as having market experience and signaling a degree of policy continuity with outgoing chair Janet Yellen.

There are also fears, however, that the dwindling number of economics PhDs at the highest levels could hamper interest rate policy in coming years.
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Post by MaxEntropy_Man on Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:52 pm

If inflation really takes off, what is your investing plan?
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Post by Propagandhi711 on Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:18 am

precious metals and commodities. gdx's been basically flat for 12+ yrs after a monster move from '07-'11 and then a huge drop from '11-'16. think it's overdue for a run as gold like high inflation environments. also there's some huge block trades happening in it real time after last week's drop so seems like smart money positioning itself for a runup. it could also go the other way....

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man on Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:28 am

Idefix-- what's the expense ratio on your lifecycle fund? The reason I've stayed away from these funds is the high expense ratios. What they basically offer is asset allocation changes as you age.  I can do that myself although it requires closer watching.
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Post by TruthSeeker on Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:04 am

After P/E ratio, it is important to learn about PEG ratio.

There are only 3-4 things that one  needs to look at ANY stock, to decide if they want to look ANY further.

Different folks look at different things to initially "screen".

For me, its PEG ratio - the foremost. Thanks to Peter Lynch.

What is it?

How do U tell if a company is going to do well in FUTURE?

All analysts analyze past.

PEG ratio tells you some sense of future.

Price To Earnings Growth Ratio. PEG.

For e.g. next 5 years PEG ratio for Apple is 1.22 and for Amazon is 6.16 today.

PEG ratio tells you how cheap or expensive a stock is trading at, based on its expectation of future growth.

Lower the better. PEG = Price of stock divided by expected growth rate. Higher the growth expected, less is better.

Peter Lynch, the most famed investor of all times in any Mutual Fund, came up with this.

But is P/E ratio, and PEG enough to tell if a stock is a buy?

No.

But its a start.

The story continues.

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Post by Propagandhi711 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:43 pm

gdx up 4.5% today and inflation fears are starting to get louder.

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Post by Idéfix on Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:07 pm

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:Idefix-- what's the expense ratio on your lifecycle fund? The reason I've stayed away from these funds is the high expense ratios. What they basically offer is asset allocation changes as you age.  I can do that myself although it requires closer watching.
Good point that I had not considered. The site shows the expense ratio as 0.09%, which on the face of it is quite low, but I suspect there is a catch that I am missing.
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