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could chinese banking be on brink of collapse?
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could chinese banking be on brink of collapse?
credit swaps hit record high, much like in '08 for US. but this also gave false signals in jan when they hit a record..this might be the straw that breaks the market, am going to sell much of everything EOD:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/crisis-gauge-rises-to-record-high-as-swaps-avoided.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/crisis-gauge-rises-to-record-high-as-swaps-avoided.html
Propagandhi711- Posts : 6941
Join date : 2011-04-29
Re: could chinese banking be on brink of collapse?
Propagandhi711 wrote:credit swaps hit record high, much like in '08 for US. but this also gave false signals in jan when they hit a record..this might be the straw that breaks the market, am going to sell much of everything EOD:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/crisis-gauge-rises-to-record-high-as-swaps-avoided.html
I would agree with you that the odds of shit hitting the fan are higher than seeing gains.
I'm following you, pal. Will be selling all my stocks by eod.
Re: could chinese banking be on brink of collapse?
harharmahadev wrote:Propagandhi711 wrote:credit swaps hit record high, much like in '08 for US. but this also gave false signals in jan when they hit a record..this might be the straw that breaks the market, am going to sell much of everything EOD:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/crisis-gauge-rises-to-record-high-as-swaps-avoided.html
I would agree with you that the odds of shit hitting the fan are higher than seeing gains.
I'm following you, pal. Will be selling all my stocks by eod.
something doesnt smell right: increasingly narrower group of momo stocks going up while everything else stalls on falling volume, frothy momo stocks just zooming like it is march 2000, yellen & dimon handwringing that soft data is due to weather, chinese banking issues....maybe we're setting up for a fall in march. am sitting out for a little while until things become clearer
Propagandhi711- Posts : 6941
Join date : 2011-04-29
Re: could chinese banking be on brink of collapse?
harharmahadev wrote:Propagandhi711 wrote:credit swaps hit record high, much like in '08 for US. but this also gave false signals in jan when they hit a record..this might be the straw that breaks the market, am going to sell much of everything EOD:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/crisis-gauge-rises-to-record-high-as-swaps-avoided.html
I would agree with you that the odds of shit hitting the fan are higher than seeing gains.
I'm following you, pal. Will be selling all my stocks by eod.
Just a clarification ... I'm going to hold on to SDS and FB puts. I will continue to hold PDI and PML, which has done well so far this year. I'll hold on to GLD and get rid of NUGT today.
Also, getting rid of all my long positions!
Re: could chinese banking be on brink of collapse?
Well, something is cooking with VXX is on an uptrend (despite contango), and despite the fact that stocks themselves rising.
NPA's in Chinese banks can be funded by the gargantuan Chinese Foreign Exchange reserves. However China would have to curtail fresh loans to unproductive sectors, to prevent NPA's getting even worse. So at the least Chinese growth numbers are coming down.
They are looking at India to solve the idle excess capacity of their factories. They have offered to fund 30% of India's infrastructure requirement around 150 Billion$.
The catch would be that they would fund it possibly interest free, but men , material and capital equipment would only come from China. In effect they are essentially giving seed capital so that they can get customers for their factories which have excess capacity. Clearly this would be projected as a great help, but instead what is happening is that they are solving their own problems with India's help, while stabbing India at the back by laying a road across Pakistan Occupied Kashmir thus legitimizing Pakistan's occupation of a portion of the state of J&K.
Co-incidentally China is also pushing for a change in the band for reminibi, and have for all practical purposes, given up on the one-child policy. Basically they are bringing in another factor for demography drive growth.
So we need to watch China does.
NPA's in Chinese banks can be funded by the gargantuan Chinese Foreign Exchange reserves. However China would have to curtail fresh loans to unproductive sectors, to prevent NPA's getting even worse. So at the least Chinese growth numbers are coming down.
They are looking at India to solve the idle excess capacity of their factories. They have offered to fund 30% of India's infrastructure requirement around 150 Billion$.
The catch would be that they would fund it possibly interest free, but men , material and capital equipment would only come from China. In effect they are essentially giving seed capital so that they can get customers for their factories which have excess capacity. Clearly this would be projected as a great help, but instead what is happening is that they are solving their own problems with India's help, while stabbing India at the back by laying a road across Pakistan Occupied Kashmir thus legitimizing Pakistan's occupation of a portion of the state of J&K.
Co-incidentally China is also pushing for a change in the band for reminibi, and have for all practical purposes, given up on the one-child policy. Basically they are bringing in another factor for demography drive growth.
So we need to watch China does.
rawemotions- Posts : 1690
Join date : 2011-05-03
Re: could chinese banking be on brink of collapse?
rawemotions wrote:Well, something is cooking with VXX is on an uptrend (despite contango), and despite the fact that stocks themselves rising.
NPA's in Chinese banks can be funded by the gargantuan Chinese Foreign Exchange reserves. However China would have to curtail fresh loans to unproductive sectors, to prevent NPA's getting even worse. So at the least Chinese growth numbers are coming down.
They are looking at India to solve the idle excess capacity of their factories. They have offered to fund 30% of India's infrastructure requirement around 150 Billion$.
The catch would be that they would fund it possibly interest free, but men , material and capital equipment would only come from China. In effect they are essentially giving seed capital so that they can get customers for their factories which have excess capacity. Clearly this would be projected as a great help, but instead what is happening is that they are solving their own problems with India's help, while stabbing India at the back by laying a road across Pakistan Occupied Kashmir thus legitimizing Pakistan's occupation of a portion of the state of J&K.
Co-incidentally China is also pushing for a change in the band for reminibi, and have for all practical purposes, given up on the one-child policy. Basically they are bringing in another factor for demography drive growth.
So we need to watch China does.
Good analysis!!
:thumbs:
Re: could chinese banking be on brink of collapse?
Long live the banks and currency which not many foreigners care about!
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