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The omniscient market
by Idéfix Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:09 pm
Conservatives believe that markets are efficient, so this must be worrisome for them...
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-impeachment-odds-comey-testimony-623358
Those who put their money where their mouth is believe that it is increasingly likely that Trump will either be impeached or resign. The odds on Trump’s term being cut short moved from 4/5 to 4/7 with British betting firm Ladbrokes in the wake of Comey’s testimony. The new odds equate to a 63.6 percent chance of Trump failing to make it to 2020.
“Political punters are starting to think it's genuinely a case of when and not if Trump has to wave goodbye to the White House, and they're willing to stake money that could be tied up for nearly four years,” Ladbrokes spokesperson Jessica Bridge said in an emailed statement.
I think Trump has much better odds than that of making it through his full term. Yes, markets are sometimes wrong. I would put the likelihood of early removal from office at around 25%. To my fellow liberals who think he will be booted out after the 2018 election, I say that we need 67 votes in the Senate to convict him. It is unlikely we will have 51 in January 2019, because more than 20 of the 32 seats up are Democrats. Republicans will not convict Trump even if he turns back during the State of the Union and bodyslams Mitch McConnell.
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-impeachment-odds-comey-testimony-623358
Those who put their money where their mouth is believe that it is increasingly likely that Trump will either be impeached or resign. The odds on Trump’s term being cut short moved from 4/5 to 4/7 with British betting firm Ladbrokes in the wake of Comey’s testimony. The new odds equate to a 63.6 percent chance of Trump failing to make it to 2020.
“Political punters are starting to think it's genuinely a case of when and not if Trump has to wave goodbye to the White House, and they're willing to stake money that could be tied up for nearly four years,” Ladbrokes spokesperson Jessica Bridge said in an emailed statement.
I think Trump has much better odds than that of making it through his full term. Yes, markets are sometimes wrong. I would put the likelihood of early removal from office at around 25%. To my fellow liberals who think he will be booted out after the 2018 election, I say that we need 67 votes in the Senate to convict him. It is unlikely we will have 51 in January 2019, because more than 20 of the 32 seats up are Democrats. Republicans will not convict Trump even if he turns back during the State of the Union and bodyslams Mitch McConnell.
Idéfix- Posts : 8808
Join date : 2012-04-26
Location : Berkeley, CA
Re: The omniscient market
by silvermani Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:50 pm
The odds of Brexit we're very low too.
silvermani- Posts : 1631
Join date : 2014-01-18
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