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Political gameplan of Congress Party for LS elections

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Political gameplan of Congress Party for LS elections Empty Political gameplan of Congress Party for LS elections

Post by rawemotions Sat Mar 30, 2013 7:10 am

Few points are emerging

a) Prefers NM as opposition candidate. Seems to think that this alone will drive all Sunni Muslims into its Lap, and is counting on caste divisions to prevent Hindu Unity (allegedly by using Media to sow disunity in the name of caste vote banks).
b) In UP, prefers pre/post-poll alliance with Mayawati. Get her Vote (her votes are always transferable) and Muslim Block votes for Congress (NM Factor). In addition with CBI cases, BSP can be controlled post elections, compared to the maverick Mulayam. Assembly elections proved that BSP's votebank does not care about her alleged corruption. SP will realize that Sunni Muslim votebank's loyalty is not like Yadav loyalty. Shias of Lucknow are likely to vote for SP/BJP due to Sunni polarization towards Congress. Mulayam risks being marginalized.
c) Is aiming to stitch up a post poll alliance with Nitish in Bihar (preferably pre-poll alliance if he plays ball), so keeping the lines open. If NM takes the mantle, JD-U goes alone, and that helps Congress, with Pasmanandas now split between JD-U/Congress and Hindu vote split between JD-U/BJP, but rest of the Muslims Voting Congress. RJD gets marginalized.
d) Is aiming to get a big chunk of seats in West Bengal, due to (NM) factor and cut TC to size. TC will realize that even regularizing 1000's of illegal Madrassas, will not get her the loyalty of illegal Bangladeshi Muslims, as belatedly realized by the Left.
e) Will use CBI cases to get Jagan to see reason and get him to support Congress in a pre-poll alliance. AP's 39 seats are very crucial for Congress.
f) Maharashtra is also important for Congress. With Bombay always contributing a good chunk (due to Illegal Bangladeshis and Muslim domination of votebanks there.) to the kitty for Congress, congress still gets decent seats in Maharashtra, unless NCP goes over to NDA (unlikely).
g)In TN (most likely Amma will contest alone) ADMK is likely to win a significant percentage of LS seats, and Amma will make her own deals with either NDA or UPA in post poll alliance. So 25-30+ seats from TN are available for Congress. The same goes with BJD.

Might go in for Snap Polls after expected victory in Karnataka , before BJP gets over the PM issue and gets it act together. Has successfully used Tactic (a) (with CBI cases) to get Yeddi to divide Hindu Vote. Expect big announcement of populist schemes, sanitized Lokpal bill, some black money retrieval successes and cash transfer successes. Even though they win by Sunni Muslim Block voting, they will attribute their success to cash transfer schemes, projecting Rahul/Sonia as Lula of Brazil.

Seems to think NM factor might get BJP a few extra seats in urban india (10-20), but more than made up by the assured 30(UP, where Muslims + BSP Votebank can tilt the scales)+(20) WB seats (Muslims alone can tilt the scales, mostly Illegal Bangladeshis allegedly granted Indian citizenship by Leftists and patronized by TC).

A tough call for BJP, given that Congress has shown significant success in dividing Hindus in these states. In addition, Rajnath singh has been uninspiring and he had not been able to improve BJP's strength in UP last time for assembly.

Congress is sitting pretty. It is ironic that Congress without being in power in many of the big states, barring AP/Rajasthan might get to win again, by getting votes from one community and allegedly by dividing Hindus. The end result is that UPA-3 is likely to have policies directly contravening constitution (Direct Muslim reservation - even though OBC reservation already includes a big chunk of Muslim community) and pander to Political Islamists etc..

If this happens, it will be Kerala Congress administration (in the grip of political Islamists) played over at a national scale. Hindus are fools, if they do not recognize the long term threat to security from political Islamist domination of next government in India.

rawemotions

Posts : 1690
Join date : 2011-05-03

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