Trading strategies

by Idéfix Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:55 pm

I closed my last position today for a profit, and I am now all cash in my brokerage account. I left the 401k alone on autopilot. I think there is a good chance of a deal not being reached in time to prevent another downgrade, and when that happens, I expect the markets will fall. I am thinking of jumping in if there is a big fall.

I know there's also a chance of a deal being reached and money pouring back into the market and I might miss out on a big rally of relief. But I think the chances of a slump are more than that of a rally. What are people here doing to prepare for the deadline being breached tonight?

by Hellsangel Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:59 pm

Damn! You are just another Wall Street looter profiting off the shutdown.

by MaxEntropy_Man Tue Oct 15, 2013 3:06 pm

i don't think the deadline will be breached. my worry is that they'll work out some short term deal to get over the deadline and then keep haggling with longer term uncertainty which the markets are going to hate even more than deadline breaches. this is not good for anyone. we are going to get a self inflicted recession thanks to the house republicans. just when things were looking like finally recovering, we are going to reward ourselves with a market that's going nowhere for a few more years.

by Propagandhi711 Tue Oct 15, 2013 4:27 pm

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:i don't think the deadline will be breached. my worry is that they'll work out some short term deal to get over the deadline and then keep haggling with longer term uncertainty which the markets are going to hate even more than deadline breaches. this is not good for anyone. we are going to get a self inflicted recession thanks to the house republicans. just when things were looking like finally recovering, we are going to reward ourselves with a market that's going nowhere for a few more years.

few things that are wrong with above post:

1. market hasnt been going nowhere for past few years. infact it's gone no where but up since the bottom was put in feb 2009.
2. uncertainty over debt limit has been going on since last time, market didnt swoon over that, infact it made higher highs.

I wont touch the thanks to house republicans part, it's a waste of time arguing with fairly biased neutral observers.

by truthbetold Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:27 pm

S&p and Dow futures are up at 9 pm.
This debacle is now focused on few unstable emotional individuals. So rational predictions are irrational.
Chances of a default are very slim. But rewards of a crash due to default are high. In this case it is pure gambling.

by Idéfix Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:42 am

Propagandhi711 wrote:I wont touch the thanks to house republicans part, it's a waste of time arguing with fairly biased neutral observers.

Yeah, I am sure McCain is biased too.

“It’s very, very serious,” warned Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona. “Republicans have to understand we have lost this battle, as I predicted weeks ago, that we would not be able to win because we were demanding something that was not achievable.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/16/us/politics/congress-budget-debate.html

by truthbetold Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:15 am

Isn't mccain and Graham a lost pair of mavericks?
At 5 am est futures are still for s&p and Dow (around 7 and 40).
Rest of the world is mildly negative.

by Idéfix Wed Oct 16, 2013 9:58 am

truthbetold wrote:Isn't mccain and Graham a lost pair of mavericks?

How about the Wall Street Journal editorial board?

The conservatives thus undermined whatever small leverage the House GOP had left. Without a united majority of 218 votes, Republicans might as well hand the Speaker's gavel to Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid.

This is the quality of thinking—or lack thereof—that has afflicted many GOP conservatives from the beginning of this budget showdown. They picked a goal they couldn't achieve in trying to defund ObamaCare from one House of Congress, and then they picked a means they couldn't sustain politically by pursuing a long government shutdown and threatening to blow through the debt limit.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304561004579137791687537388

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