BJP 4-0, India Today predicts

by indophile Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:13 pm

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-today-org-exit-poll-predicts-clean-sweep-for-bjp-in-rajasthan-mp-and-chhattisgarh/1/327834.html

If this trend holds till spring then Narendra Modi may well be the next PM.

by truthbetold Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:22 pm

Indo,
You just beat me to posting this.

Raw,
Where are you with your chickenshit execuses?
Restate that modi does not deserve any credit for these victories.

by oldmonk Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:25 pm

indophile wrote:http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-today-org-exit-poll-predicts-clean-sweep-for-bjp-in-rajasthan-mp-and-chhattisgarh/1/327834.html

If this trend holds till spring then Narendra Modi may well be the next PM.

NAMO namaha! Govinda GOOOOvinda@congress.

by truthbetold Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:20 pm

Indian market will show a strong reaction.

by rawemotions Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:32 pm

truthbetold wrote:Indo,
You just beat me to posting this.

Raw,
Where are you with your chickenshit execuses?
Restate that modi does not deserve any credit for these victories.

I do not know why you are assuming that my position changed. My position was not conditioned on the results. Did I say so ?
Unlike you I did not repeatedly change my position on this issue in the original thread.
Then where is the need to restate ? This is just a battle. The war awaits.

May be next time you should think twice before throwing out words that is not conducive to a meaningful discussion and avoid repeated change in positions, that leads to overall confusion.

by rawemotions Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:54 pm

indophile wrote:http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-today-org-exit-poll-predicts-clean-sweep-for-bjp-in-rajasthan-mp-and-chhattisgarh/1/327834.html

If this trend holds till spring then Narendra Modi may well be the next PM.

I very much doubt Delhi (unless Middle class Hindu supporters turned back on AAP due to Tauqeer Rana episode and openly anti-BJP pamphlets)and also doubt the margins in Rajasthan. India today has again swung back to backing NDA, so we will have to take this with a pinch of salt.

We should wait for results. Please also note this is the first elections where RG was given free hand to try out his system. Old Kingmakers like Ahmed Patel reportedly took a back seat to let RG try out his ideas. The Old guards will jump back in with the negative results, and plot a turn around in the Campaign, for the war ahead and are putting up a huge IT infrastructure for the statistics and associated number crunching. They have a huge Party warchest almost twice of NDA. NDA needs to beware! There is already a plan for many divisive bills (ironically called Communal violence bill, Rayala Telengana Imbroglio etc ). These folks and FM are also arming the Centre with a warchest for enough freebies. BJP should double up and fight with vigour and ensure that they put up a stiff fight for the war ahead. Allegedly, Communal divisive Congress might still prevail with help from (pseudo) secular Allies, but atleast NDA should give a tough fight.

by rawemotions Thu Dec 05, 2013 12:24 am

rawemotions wrote:
indophile wrote:http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-today-org-exit-poll-predicts-clean-sweep-for-bjp-in-rajasthan-mp-and-chhattisgarh/1/327834.html

If this trend holds till spring then Narendra Modi may well be the next PM.
I very much doubt Delhi (unless Middle class Hindu supporters turned back on AAP due to Tauqeer Rana episode and openly anti-BJP pamphlets)and also doubt the margins in Rajasthan. India today has again swung back to backing NDA, so we will have to take this with a pinch of salt.

We should wait for results. Please also note this is the first elections where RG was given free hand to try out his system. Old Kingmakers like Ahmed Patel reportedly took a back seat to let RG try out his ideas. The Old guards will jump back in with the negative results, and plot a turn around in the Campaign, for the war ahead and are putting up a huge IT infrastructure for the statistics and associated number crunching. They have a huge Party warchest almost twice of NDA. NDA needs to beware! There is already a plan for many divisive bills (ironically called Communal violence bill, Rayala Telengana Imbroglio etc ). These folks and FM are also arming the Centre with a warchest for enough freebies. BJP should double up and fight with vigour and ensure that they put up a stiff fight for the war ahead. Allegedly, Communal divisive Congress might still prevail with help from (pseudo) secular Allies, but atleast NDA should give a tough fight.

BTW the sample size of 4500 for each state is too small to be considered meaningful for these large states. Only a sample size that is at least 1000+ in each constituency and representative of the demographics can be meaningful in such diverse nations like India. But this would mean a overall sample size of 2.3L votes. That would entail lots of expenses, that only the most well-funded media houses have. Thus, it is better to wait for the results, rather than assume that the results would follow the pattern. Since the margins are too small even a slight difference can shift the results by 20-30 seats and change the picture completely, especially in Rajasthan, Delhi and Chattishgarh.

by truthbetold Thu Dec 05, 2013 4:21 am

Raw,
once again you create your own insular world and suggest rest of us are all wrong.

Exit polls are much more accurate than opinion polls but it is prudent to hold celebrations till Dec 8. So we will continue the discussion after that.

You are well trained in what they call gobbles propaganda technilques. It is your characterization that I changed my arguments. They you repeat it. By repeating you think you turned them into facts. However most of us standing outside your insular world can see that your characterizations are meaningless and fabrications of your imagination.

Your new chickenshit execuses are sample size in polls and the vast money of Congress. And the socalled Congress old guard stepping back. No point in starting new discussions and repeating them after Dec 8. So we will meet again after results.

by rawemotions Thu Dec 05, 2013 10:38 am

truthbetold wrote:Raw,
once again you create your own insular world and suggest rest of us are all wrong.

You are well trained in what they call gobbles propaganda technilques. It is your characterization that I changed my arguments. They you repeat it. By repeating you think you turned them into facts. However most of us standing outside your insular world can see that your characterizations are meaningless and fabrications of your imagination.

The sections in italics below are some of the statements you made in the post. Please tell me what I am supposed to make of them. My point: I concede the right of yours or Media's perception on Modi. I just stated the facts that he is not directly accountable for results of state elections. But you on the other hand went back and forth in your positions, trying to find a rationale for your perceptions for giving Modi the direct responsibility, and in the process gave a bunch of inconsistent statements like the ones below. It is ok we all make mistakes. So may be you should be careful about your posts rather than focus your energies on calling me names.

if you cannot win in this round bjp should be barred from contesting in 2014 for incompetence. they shouldbe tried for tall claims fraud.
modi should be given a third degree treatment for breaching people's confidence. he should never be allowed outside gujarat .

all politics is local. These elections are no exception. But modi got the best opportunity of his life to unite party and lead it to victory in bjp's strong holds.

If bjp loses this round it is not all modi's fault. But he wil bel blamed and rightly so

but the ram singh, hariharan, bhavani or crores of Indians are looking for a hero who can overcome internal squabbles and external impediments to a better India.
Upa is in deep shit with all scandals. Economy is in a downshift mode. Onions are expensive. Elections are in bjp's strongholds.
people are looking for a strong figure who can deliver such as Indira, mgr or ntr .

National scandals provide the backdrop and media talking points for bjp. Those aspects help rally middle class. Then local politics mobilize vast majority of people of all sections. These are not mutually exclusive. When leaders explain how local issues are tied to national scandals through misuse of scarce resources, people respond.

He is the head of election Comm.
Few months ago when he was declared as pm to be, rajnath was given the charge of election Comm.

Your new chickenshit execuses are sample size in polls and the vast money of Congress. And the socalled Congress old guard stepping back. No point in starting new discussions and repeating them after Dec 8. So we will meet again after results.

Sample size in polls is NOT an excuse. It is to make a point, that it makes sense to wait for the real results, which you also seem to agree, it is just that you mis-construed the point in relation to which it was made. Vast money and other points are in relation to the challenges BJP faces w.r.to Lok Sabha elections. Please read my posts carefully.

The table below gives a small sample of one of the exit polls conducted for the Assembly elections, which typically.
The reasons directly attributed to Modi's persona for assembly votes in favor of BJP's is 3%. The CM candidate's came out higher at 9%. Need i say anything better.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/rajasthan-postpoll-survey-bjp-to-win-126136-seats-congress-4957/437705-80-262.html

[ltr]Table 3: Main reasons given by BJP and Cong voters for voting for the party[/ltr]

[ltr]Main reasons for voting for party/candidate[/ltr]	[ltr]BJP voters[/ltr]	[ltr]INC voters[/ltr]
[ltr]I generally like the party/it has good leaders/it has a good programme[/ltr]	[ltr]32[/ltr]	[ltr]42[/ltr]
[ltr]I am satisfied with the Cong govt./Gehlot[/ltr]	[ltr]0[/ltr]	[ltr]11[/ltr]
[ltr]I like the candidate fielded by the party/accessible candidate[/ltr]	[ltr]4[/ltr]	[ltr]6[/ltr]
[ltr]Caste considerations in favour of party/candidate[/ltr]	[ltr]7[/ltr]	[ltr]3[/ltr]
[ltr]My family members are traditional[/ltr] [ltr]supporters of the party[/ltr]	[ltr]5[/ltr]	[ltr]5[/ltr]
[ltr]Party is capable of controlling price rise[/ltr]	[ltr]8[/ltr]	[ltr]4[/ltr]
[ltr]I am dissatisfied with the Cong govt./CM[/ltr]	[ltr]2[/ltr]	[ltr]0[/ltr]
[ltr]Party is capable of controlling corruption[/ltr]	[ltr]3[/ltr]	[ltr]2[/ltr]
[ltr]I like Vasundhara Raje[/ltr]	[ltr]9[/ltr]	[ltr]0[/ltr]
[ltr]I like Rahul Gandhi[/ltr]	[ltr]0[/ltr]	[ltr]4[/ltr]
[ltr]I like Narendra Modi[/ltr]	[ltr]3[/ltr]	[ltr]0[/ltr]

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