Overhyped economic growth

confuzzled dude wrote:"The truth is that India's economy tends to rise or fall with the global economy, not with the party in power. For virtually every five-year period since 1980, Indian GDP has grown at a rate about 1.5 percentage points faster than the emerging world average. This somewhat faster growth has mainly come about because India is a low-income economy and it is easier to grow fast from a low base. Over the course of the last three governments, India's average GDP growth rate has ranked somewhere between 40th and 50th place out of the 150 nations in the emerging world, whether Congress or BJP was in charge."

"The genuine Asian miracle economies, from Japan to Korea and China, were rising manufacturing powers that managed to put together long runs of rapid growth without always the help of global tailwinds. As yet, no Indian party has achieved that feat."

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Indias-unreal-election-debate/articleshow/33192451.cms

-> Looks like PVN, Vajpayee & MMS get heaps of prices for achieving nothing & gullible Indians placed them on the pedestals they don't really deserve. When PVN took over Indian economy hit rock bottom, the only way was up, any other leader would've done the same, including Chandra Shekhar, under whose watch Indian economy went down the tubes.

Propagandhi711 wrote:
yes it makes no difference who governs. country and economy runs by itself everywhere except in the US. due to some particular differences in how the magnetic poles work on this continent, economy is different in US: when democrats run the govt their spending policies spur growth. when repubs run it, it always tanks. in india, it makes zero difference who governs and what policies they set forth and institute.

confuzzled dude wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:
yes it makes no difference who governs. country and economy runs by itself everywhere except in the US. due to some particular differences in how the magnetic poles work on this continent, economy is different in US: when democrats run the govt their spending policies spur growth. when repubs run it, it always tanks. in india, it makes zero difference who governs and what policies they set forth and institute.

With India's back against the wall & USSR's demise, PVN had left with no choice but open up; it was a desparate move not a stroke of genius. Actually, India started distancing itself from USSR since Rajiv Gandhi's days.

smArtha wrote:CD - 
Are you Gurava Reddy from Atlanta who writes out and out pro YSR/YSJ articles on Great Andhra and probably maintains the below website also?

http://ysrism.com/

Propagandhi711 wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:With India's back against the wall & USSR's demise, PVN had left with no choice but open up; it was a desparate move not a stroke of genius. Actually, India started distancing itself from USSR since Rajiv Gandhi's days.

what difference does it make what forced PVR to open up the economy? the fact remains that he did it and pulled the country out of hindu rate of growth for next 10+ yrs. lots of countries and people when faced with no choice do go the wrong way and fuck up real bad. 

what, the only thing you respect is if YSR did it (while lining his and his ilk's pockets)?

truthbetold wrote:Seeds of Indian change were sowed in 1857 according Karl marx's article n ny times. he was talking about laying of rail tracks in India .

confuzzled dude wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Seeds of Indian change were sowed in 1857 according Karl marx's article n ny times. he was talking about laying of rail tracks in India .

That might be true, however, this article talks about the state of Indian economy in that last 30 years i.e. in and around liberalization period so whatever happened in 1857 is not relevant.

smArtha wrote:CD - 
Are you Gurava Reddy from Atlanta who writes out and out pro YSR/YSJ articles on Great Andhra and probably maintains the below website also?

http://ysrism.com/

Kinnera wrote:

smArtha wrote:CD - 
Are you Gurava Reddy from Atlanta who writes out and out pro YSR/YSJ articles on Great Andhra and probably maintains the below website also?

http://ysrism.com/

Ya, this Gurava Reddy is a fanatical fan of YSR, and now Jagan. I mean, it seems so insane. How can an educated person such as him obsessively admire some public figure? He books banquet halls and feeds the public on YSR's birthday/vardhanti and all. I believe when YSR died, he cried on stage and declared that YSR is more to him than his wife and kids. Wife and kids never attend any of the functions thrown by him.

tidbit: His son scored a perfect 2400 in SAT and is currently attending Yale. All credit goes to his wife for sure.

confuzzled dude wrote:

Kinnera wrote:

smArtha wrote:CD - 
Are you Gurava Reddy from Atlanta who writes out and out pro YSR/YSJ articles on Great Andhra and probably maintains the below website also?

http://ysrism.com/

Ya, this Gurava Reddy is a fanatical fan of YSR, and now Jagan. I mean, it seems so insane. How can an educated person such as him obsessively admire some public figure? He books banquet halls and feeds the public on YSR's birthday/vardhanti and all. I believe when YSR died, he cried on stage and declared that YSR is more to him than his wife and kids. Wife and kids never attend any of the functions thrown by him.

tidbit: His son scored a perfect 2400 in SAT and is currently attending Yale. All credit goes to his wife for sure.

I don't think he in unique in that aspect there are many such fanatics in the US that cut cakes on NTR's birthday/vardhanti & CBN's/Bala Krishna's/Lokesh's, Pawan Kalyan's birthdays too. Heck they even celebarte & cut cakes for movie releases as well. They did for movie Legend last week.
 

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:i know very little about andhra politics but YSR is a recurring theme here. so i am going to look up who he is. btw, are n.t.rama rao's children not a factor in andhra politics? i used to know his youngest son well at one point.

Kinnera wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

Kinnera wrote:Ya, this Gurava Reddy is a fanatical fan of YSR, and now Jagan. I mean, it seems so insane. How can an educated person such as him obsessively admire some public figure? He books banquet halls and feeds the public on YSR's birthday/vardhanti and all. I believe when YSR died, he cried on stage and declared that YSR is more to him than his wife and kids. Wife and kids never attend any of the functions thrown by him.

tidbit: His son scored a perfect 2400 in SAT and is currently attending Yale. All credit goes to his wife for sure.

I don't think he in unique in that aspect there are many such fanatics in the US that cut cakes on NTR's birthday/vardhanti & CBN's/Bala Krishna's/Lokesh's, Pawan Kalyan's birthdays too. Heck they even celebarte & cut cakes for movie releases as well. They did for movie Legend last week.
 

ya, I agree. Ppl still celebrate NTR's birthday. I remember them being celebrated in club houses here. Insanity!

truthbetold wrote:Getting back to the original point raised by the growth,  who is the real initiator ?

I will provide couple of stories. 

One story involves Sanjay Gandhi. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maruti_Suzuki

Sanjay was involved in Maruti and ran it into ground in 1970s.  He died in 1980. Indira revived the project and handed it over govt technocrats.  By 1983, Maruti is on the road and more than 30% of it is indian.  But more importantly Indians loved the quality of the product.  For the first time, Indian govt bureaucracy learned that a good product can also be successfully product (unlike art movies).  

Other story.  George Fernandes introduced a legislation forcing IBM amd Coca cola leave india in 1978. That led to development of companies like HCL by former IBM employees.  Other tech companies like TCS picked up business during that period. 

Coke's exit allowed lot of small beverage companies to develop.  

Then came Rajiv and Sam Pitroda story.  Followed by VP singh's attack on tax evaders. 

Then came PVN. While many attempts were made before 1990,  PVN brought it all together.  Economy hit the rockbottom due to earlier congress govt policies decades.  PVN did not just get some loans and papered over the problem. He turned the problem into an opportunity.  You all know the story of MMS.  But after couple of years, congress lost several electoral battles.  PVN was asked to throw MMS under the bus and go back to subsidy raj. He probably saw the coming doom for himself and his party but he held onto mms and economic reforms.  

PVN deserves credit for providing the care at the time of this change seedling. He nurtured it to give it a chance.

Kris wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Getting back to the original point raised by the growth,  who is the real initiator ?

I will provide couple of stories. 

One story involves Sanjay Gandhi. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maruti_Suzuki

Sanjay was involved in Maruti and ran it into ground in 1970s.  He died in 1980. Indira revived the project and handed it over govt technocrats.  By 1983, Maruti is on the road and more than 30% of it is indian.  But more importantly Indians loved the quality of the product.  For the first time, Indian govt bureaucracy learned that a good product can also be successfully product (unlike art movies).  

Other story.  George Fernandes introduced a legislation forcing IBM amd Coca cola leave india in 1978. That led to development of companies like HCL by former IBM employees.  Other tech companies like TCS picked up business during that period. 

Coke's exit allowed lot of small beverage companies to develop.  

Then came Rajiv and Sam Pitroda story.  Followed by VP singh's attack on tax evaders. 

Then came PVN. While many attempts were made before 1990,  PVN brought it all together.  Economy hit the rockbottom due to earlier congress govt policies decades.  PVN did not just get some loans and papered over the problem. He turned the problem into an opportunity.  You all know the story of MMS.  But after couple of years, congress lost several electoral battles.  PVN was asked to throw MMS under the bus and go back to subsidy raj. He probably saw the coming doom for himself and his party but he held onto mms and economic reforms.  

PVN deserves credit for providing the care at the time of this change seedling. He nurtured it to give it a chance.

>>>PVN actually took the leap forward. A lot of credit goes to him. Even if he was reacting to circumstances, it took guts to let go of the license raj mentality.

rawemotions wrote:

Kris wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Getting back to the original point raised by the growth,  who is the real initiator ?

I will provide couple of stories. 

One story involves Sanjay Gandhi. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maruti_Suzuki

Sanjay was involved in Maruti and ran it into ground in 1970s.  He died in 1980. Indira revived the project and handed it over govt technocrats.  By 1983, Maruti is on the road and more than 30% of it is indian.  But more importantly Indians loved the quality of the product.  For the first time, Indian govt bureaucracy learned that a good product can also be successfully product (unlike art movies).  

Other story.  George Fernandes introduced a legislation forcing IBM amd Coca cola leave india in 1978. That led to development of companies like HCL by former IBM employees.  Other tech companies like TCS picked up business during that period. 

Coke's exit allowed lot of small beverage companies to develop.  

Then came Rajiv and Sam Pitroda story.  Followed by VP singh's attack on tax evaders. 

Then came PVN. While many attempts were made before 1990,  PVN brought it all together.  Economy hit the rockbottom due to earlier congress govt policies decades.  PVN did not just get some loans and papered over the problem. He turned the problem into an opportunity.  You all know the story of MMS.  But after couple of years, congress lost several electoral battles.  PVN was asked to throw MMS under the bus and go back to subsidy raj. He probably saw the coming doom for himself and his party but he held onto mms and economic reforms.  

PVN deserves credit for providing the care at the time of this change seedling. He nurtured it to give it a chance.

>>>PVN actually took the leap forward. A lot of credit goes to him. Even if he was reacting to circumstances, it took guts to let go of the license raj mentality.

I believe Subramaniam Swami was a good friend of PVN, and he claims that, he was the one who wrote the report to liberalize the economy (basically abolish License Raj) under Chandrasekhar and when PVN became PM , the first thing he did was to ask for Swami's report.

PVN also apparently asked Swami to become Minister, but Shankaracharya did not approve  Swami Joining Congress.

truthbetold wrote:Getting back to the original point raised by the growth,  who is the real initiator ?

I will provide couple of stories. 

One story involves Sanjay Gandhi. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maruti_Suzuki

Sanjay was involved in Maruti and ran it into ground in 1970s.  He died in 1980. Indira revived the project and handed it over govt technocrats.  By 1983, Maruti is on the road and more than 30% of it is indian.  But more importantly Indians loved the quality of the product.  For the first time, Indian govt bureaucracy learned that a good product can also be a successful product (unlike art movies).

Other story.  George Fernandes introduced a legislation forcing IBM and Coca cola to leave india in 1978. That led to the development of companies like HCL.  Other tech companies like TCS picked up business during that same period. 

Coke's exit allowed lot of small beverage companies to develop.  

Then came Rajiv and Sam Pitroda story.  Followed by VP singh's attack on tax evaders. 

Then came PVN. While many attempts were made before 1990,  PVN brought it all together.  Economy hit the rockbottom due to earlier congress govt policies for decades.  PVN did not just get some loans and papered over the problem. He turned the problem into an opportunity.  You all know the story of MMS.  But after couple of years, congress lost several electoral battles.  PVN was asked to throw MMS under the bus and go back to subsidy raj. He probably saw the coming doom for himself and his party but he held onto mms and economic reforms.  

PVN deserves credit for providing the care at that time for this change seedling. He nurtured it to give it a chance.

truthbetold wrote:CD,

If you have any known information to counter my version I am open for discussion. 

I would like to add another story.  MMS reforms opened the door for private initiative and citizen involvement in Indian development. But International enthusiasm remained dull and unexiting till 2000. In 1998, nuclear blast added sanctions.  From that bleak situations, Jaswant singh and Vajpayee worked within India and world opinion to put India on the minds of world wide investors. From around 2001, india was noticed by these investors.  By 2003, the positive storm clouds gathered.  They resulted in very positive investment flows for several years. The second coming of mms was helpful. That is the basis for indian growth in the first decade of 21st century till congress corruption and subsidy raj shut the door on growth by 2011-2012.

truthbetold wrote:CD

You raised an important point about innovation.  But it is not a simple political question.  I am assuming you are not suggesting minor customization of existing technology.  If you are talking about nasa like space technology or solar energy, that is a deeply scientific base question.  But if you are talking about creating innovative companies like samsung to match companies like apple,  it is probably not a govt question.  China still does not have commercial product brands of international repute.  That means has lot of growing ahead of it.

rawemotions wrote:

truthbetold wrote:CD

You raised an important point about innovation.  But it is not a simple political question.  I am assuming you are not suggesting minor customization of existing technology.  If you are talking about nasa like space technology or solar energy, that is a deeply scientific base question.  But if you are talking about creating innovative companies like samsung to match companies like apple,  it is probably not a govt question.  China still does not have commercial product brands of international repute.  That means has lot of growing ahead of it.

May be not in the consumer space. But in telecom space they have Huawei/ZTE to match the Ericssons and Cisco's. They might have got there by hook or crook. But they got there. 

China continues to encourage these companies in the initial stages by giving exclusive access in Chinese market. 

A few Indian companies are doing well globally, especially in enterprise products space. Subex (for security products)/ Infosys (banking sw). But they are still a miniscule proportion of the global list. What is happening is that China is flooding its products (sub-standard or otherwise) in any new sector in India. So Chinese companies are now projecting the clout of combined Indian and Chinese market. In consumer space, it is difficult, because the market is NOT big. India needs a Japanese MITI or Singapore's EDB kind of organization to counter Chinese inroards. 


If India has to gain leverage over China to prevent Chinese aggression at the border, all it had to is enact legislation to let any future leader put a stop on Chinese companies exploiting Indian market. That one message is enough for many budding Chinese companies (300 - 400) of them to lose Indian market. 

truthbetold wrote:cd and raw,  none of these chinese products represent any meaningful innovation. They are just cheap copies of other people's design.  China's trade with India is a different problem.  

Indian innovation problem is a long term problem that will requires lot of hardwork.

truthbetold wrote:
Chinese work in international standards is normal to any country with substantial market presence. Standards have significant influence in many areas of product development and future market direction.

rawemotions wrote:

truthbetold wrote:
Chinese work in international standards is normal to any country with substantial market presence. Standards have significant influence in many areas of product development and future market direction.

On what basis are you concluding so? India is the classic example to counter your argument.
It has a large market, but negligible presence in the standards.

truthbetold wrote:

rawemotions wrote:

truthbetold wrote:
Chinese work in international standards is normal to any country with substantial market presence. Standards have significant influence in many areas of product development and future market direction.

On what basis are you concluding so? India is the classic example to counter your argument.
It has a large market, but negligible presence in the standards.

That is India's choice.  Standards work is expensive, long term and requires commitment from corporate interests.  It requires a very widely respected senior resource will have to provide probono services over long hours including lot of travel. India probably does not have corporate entities will to spend that kind of resources or india may not have the experts in certain areas. 

When I say resources,  I mean the indian companies should be ready to match resources to be spent by US and europe.  Chinese govt probably backs its industry with its deep pockets. I doubt indian political leadership have this item on their plate. Once again look at how badly Indian sports bodies are managed despite the shameful incidents in every major sports (ex: BCCI, IOA, hockey federation).  Building institutions is not an indian cultural strength.

confuzzled dude wrote:
An interesting video (if haven't already watched) on Indian innovation path, comparing patents filed in India & US, process innovation etc.,

confuzzled dude wrote:
An excerpt from the video:
"Indian institutes and education system with a few exceptions is incapable of producing students in the quantity & quality needed to keep this innovation engine going, Companies are finding innovative ways to overcome this but at the end it does not does not absolve the Govt. of the responsibility for creating education structure"

smArtha wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:
An excerpt from the video:
"Indian institutes and education system with a few exceptions is incapable of producing students in the quantity & quality needed to keep this innovation engine going, Companies are finding innovative ways to overcome this but at the end it does not does not absolve the Govt. of the responsibility for creating education structure"

Did you not argue a few days ago that Govts have no role in innovation, growth and development? Or was that only restricted to Gujarat?