The BJP could spoil Jayalalitha's Delhi dreams

by Guest Tue Apr 29, 2014 5:43 pm

http://www.hindustantimes.com/elections2014/opinion/the-bjp-could-spoil-jaya-s-delhi-dreams/article1-1213746.aspx

by truthbetold Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:41 pm

"The Muslims are unlikely to turn towards the Congress because of an anti-incumbency wave and it does not have a commanding presence in the state."

Is congress going to retain any seats in TN? or draw a blank? That means loss of 10 seats.

by rawemotions Tue Apr 29, 2014 9:05 pm

I think it will be zero. But let us not forget that DMK has said that it might support Congress again in a post poll alliance. He had to say it, to get the Muslim Votes.

It is very unfortunate JJ tried placating these Tauheed Jamath and various types when they made a big hue and cry and flexed their Political Islamist Muscles. But these folks without gratitude, ditched JJ on the eve of elections for "Not shouting enough against Modi". Apparently not allying is not enough, you have to shout against Modi to get Muslim votes. I am sure JJ would have learnt a lesson of a lifetime, about these folks, that they do not have any gratitude.

by Ponniyin Selvan Tue Apr 29, 2014 9:15 pm

truthbetold wrote:"The Muslims are unlikely to turn towards the Congress because of an anti-incumbency wave and it does not have a commanding presence in the state."

Is congress going to retain any seats in TN? or draw a blank? That means loss of 10 seats.

Congress can at most get 1 seat, that too because of the demographics of the constituency. In Kanniyakumari, minorities (Christians and Muslims) account for more than 50% and BJP is contesting. Interestingly, Congress has fielded a rich Hindu Nadar candidate (dominant caste). DMK and ADMK have fielded Christian candidates. Because of the vote split , he can win. Other than that Congress has zero chance in other constituencies.

Because of Jayalalitha's softness towards Modi and BJP and her failure to attack Modi in the initial phase of campaigning, even the only Muslim party (with a good following) Tamilnadu Tauheed Jamat that initially offered support fo Jayalalitha rescinded and offered support to DMK instead. Only after that Jayalalitha started attacking BJP and Modi. But it is too late. Already it has been announced in churches and mosques that in order to defeat BJP alliance, DMK is the best bet. Minorities mobilising for DMK front can pay rich dividends for DMK.

There is no big Modi wave or anything like that in TN. It is as usual caste/religion and anti-incumbency that will dictate the results.

by truthbetold Tue Apr 29, 2014 9:29 pm

Ps
does that mean dmk will breath again?
what is the fate of chidambaram's son?
He is making strange noises. He is making some nasty comments on pranab mukherjee who was finance minister in 2010 and 2011.

by MaxEntropy_Man Tue Apr 29, 2014 9:45 pm

truthbetold wrote:

Is congress going to retain any seats in TN? or draw a blank? That means loss of 10 seats.

my hope is that the sum total of all national parties in TN is a big fat zero. BJP may win one in south madras where the madisAr mAmis and vEshti mAmAs may vote for them. are they even running a candidate there?

by Ponniyin Selvan Tue Apr 29, 2014 10:44 pm

truthbetold wrote:Ps
does that mean dmk will breath again?
what is the fate of chidambaram's son?
He is making strange noises. He is making some nasty comments on pranab mukherjee who was finance minister in 2010 and 2011.

This election is interesting in the sense that except the BJP alliance, all the other parties are fighting alone (or almost). ADMK in all the 40, DMK in 36, Congress in 40, Communists in 18 etc.

We can rule out the chances of either the Congress or Communists winning, but they are splitting votes esp. the anti BJP votes that will usually goto DMK. Anti-Jayalalitha and anti-incumbency on state votes are split between DMK and BJP+. esp. people who are angry with power cuts and water scarcity. I think this is Jayalalitha's plan with the anti-votes splitting across multiple parties and she can scrape through.

But looks like the minority votes are going totally for the DMK+, DMK+ has fielded 4 Muslims compared to 1 in ADMK. It has chances where the minority votes are the determining factor.

BJP+ can win in a few candidates where the candidates are strong and anti-Jayalalitha voters think that candidate can defeat ADMK rather than voting for DMK. There is a small group (youth) that would plump for Modi. There are many constituencies in the North and North west where BJP+ has the support of Vanniyar based PMK and Gounder based KMDK in addition to DMDK where the polling percentages has increased by many percentage points. There is a high chance that BJP+ can win in those constituencies.

I think the result will be 15,15,10 for the 3 fronts with no clear winners.

by truthbetold Wed Apr 30, 2014 5:15 am

Ps
You are suggesting Congress loses 10 or 9 and bjp + will gain 10. That means a huge swing in my tn numbers.

While I do not like ec banning exit polls, it is commendable that no news is available through other media forums.

by truthbetold Wed Apr 30, 2014 5:33 am

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
truthbetold wrote:

Is congress going to retain any seats in TN? or draw a blank? That means loss of 10 seats.

my hope is that the sum total of all national parties in TN is a big fat zero. BJP may win one in south madras where the madisAr mAmis and vEshti mAmAs may vote for them. are they even running a candidate there?

max
madisar mamis., can you translate? Bw uses gundu mamas. I can guess but would like to know the real meaning.

by rawemotions Wed Apr 30, 2014 6:08 pm

truthbetold wrote:Ps
You are suggesting Congress loses 10 or 9 and bjp + will gain 10. That means a huge swing in my tn numbers.

While I do not like ec banning exit polls, it is commendable that no news is available through other media forums.

I am doubtful about the numberes PS is throwing about for NDA. 10 seems on the higher side. 3 -5(+1 (pondicherry) could be a reasonable bet. Alagiri factor could tilt the scales a little extra in southern TN. But we do not know how that has played out.

Who gets the upper hand, completely depends on the block voting classes and (not out of the closet) Christians in TN.
If According to PS the Churches have announced DMK, then DMK might come in the higher side. But I would think it is anybody's game for the remaining 34 or so seats. Congress vote is not with DMK, but they could be 1-3%. But I would assume that AIADMK also retains some reasonable Church support, given that she has included so called "Dalit Christian" bogey in her manifesto, and eventually spoke against BJP/Modi. But I agree it is likely to be a somewhat split verdict. TN is a psephologists nightmare this time and so is in uncharted territory.

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