Doubts surface about India's Modi after trade deal scuppered

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:16 pm

"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:32 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

If Modi had done what is suggested all AT ONCE india will be another Greece, Mexico or Argentina.

The West will come running as soon as India waves some doggy biscuits any time as all they are interested are the dog biscuits - not people, culture or others systems.

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:47 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

If Modi had done what is suggested all AT ONCE india will be another Greece, Mexico or Argentina.

The West will come running as soon as India waves some doggy biscuits any time as all they are interested are the dog biscuits - not people, culture or others systems.

You're acting as though India has turned into first world as soon as Modiji took over. I'm afraid India needs west more than west needs India. NDA could've handled this situation differently to achieve the [same] end result they wanted but right now, due to lack of their experience dealing in multilateral arena, India came across as a bad a$$.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:10 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
You're acting as though India has turned into first world as soon as Modiji took over. I'm afraid India needs west more than west needs India. NDA could've handled this situation differently to achieve the [same] end result they wanted but right now, due to lack of their experience dealing in multilateral arena, India came across as a bad a$$.

I am not the only one saying.... Razz

The US for the first time today hinted at willingness to speed up WTO negotiations on food security to “unblock” New Delhi’s opposition to a key trade pact, after a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and secretary of state John Kerry.

Please...please...when it comes to International politics you are in Grade 1... So..read, absorb, and learn...

by nevada Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:04 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

If Modi had done what is suggested all AT ONCE india will be another Greece, Mexico or Argentina.

The West will come running as soon as India waves some doggy biscuits any time as all they are interested are the dog biscuits - not people, culture or others systems.
You're acting as though India has turned into first world as soon as Modiji took over. I'm afraid India needs west more than west needs India. NDA could've handled this situation differently to achieve the [same] end result they wanted but right now, due to lack of their experience dealing in multilateral arena, India came across as a bad a$$.

Not necessarily. Which capitalistic country is not fond of cheap labor and a huge population to sell products to?

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:12 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
You're acting as though India has turned into first world as soon as Modiji took over. I'm afraid India needs west more than west needs India. NDA could've handled this situation differently to achieve the [same] end result they wanted but right now, due to lack of their experience dealing in multilateral arena, India came across as a bad a$$.

I am not the only one saying....

The US for the first time today hinted at willingness to speed up WTO negotiations on food security to “unblock” New Delhi’s opposition to a key trade pact, after a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and secretary of state John Kerry.

Please...please...when it comes to International politics you are in Grade 1... So..read, absorb, and learn...

First time what! That proposal has been on the table for a while

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:17 pm

nevada wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

If Modi had done what is suggested all AT ONCE india will be another Greece, Mexico or Argentina.

The West will come running as soon as India waves some doggy biscuits any time as all they are interested are the dog biscuits - not people, culture or others systems.
You're acting as though India has turned into first world as soon as Modiji took over. I'm afraid India needs west more than west needs India. NDA could've handled this situation differently to achieve the [same] end result they wanted but right now, due to lack of their experience dealing in multilateral arena, India came across as a bad a$$.
Not necessarily. Which capitalistic country is not fond of cheap labor and a huge population to sell products to?

there are plenty of places in the world where they can find cheap labor; remember the hardware city that never arrived to Hyd

by truthbetold Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:37 pm

Hardware city - Hyd - isn't that one of rajanna's money spinning projects?

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:40 pm

"The answer to why the BJP chose to stand its ground even at the risk of being isolated among developing countries lies probably in Modi's promise of ushering in a new kind of political economy based on the thought process of Gandhi and Deendayal Upadhyay. While this thought process may not be fully mature or ready to be articulated as yet, one could see the contours of it in the BJP manifesto which seeks to shift the focus of policy towards the farm sector in a big way. "

"The only problem here is the Gandhian framework still exists pretty much in the abstract even though Sangh Parivar adherents swear by it. It remains in the abstract because there is no real plan articulated yet on how a self sustaining, rural economy will emerge in the middle of industrial, capital and technology which is spreading everywhere, including in agriculture."

"Actually, Modi's explicit promise to Indian farmers that the government would ensure a 50% profit margin to them over and above their total costs could be another reason why India has taken this position at the WTO. Potentially this could be violative of WTO if costs incurred by farmers are very high. One can't promise farmers such high margins if they are inefficient in their production. Consequently, the Sangh Parivar may have intervened to ask Modi not to make any commitment to the WTO at present. If the WTO gives India some leeway, it may be projected as a leg up for the Gandhi-Deendayal model."

http://www.ndtv.com/article/opinion/what-does-pm-modi-have-to-gain-by-defying-the-wto-569255

by truthbetold Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:42 pm

India has a legitimate point to make and it is taking a stand. West is disturbed that upstart india is sticking to its stand and refusing to play ball.

I am sure both sides will sit down and reach a compromise.

West will penalize india in some way at a later date but on this issue India has a genuine case to make.

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:53 pm

truthbetold wrote:India has a legitimate point to make and it is taking a stand. West is disturbed that upstart india is sticking to its stand and refusing to play ball.

I am sure both sides will sit down and reach a compromise.

West will penalize india in some way at a later date but on this issue India has a genuine case to make.

I'm not sure how legitimate this is, it might very well be, but is it worth it given the wastage of food, due to lack of or substandard storage facilities. About Rs. 44,000 crores worth of food is wasted every year. The govt. should focus on helping farmers with maximizing their productivity/profit; labor & fertilizer costs are the two major expenses incurred by the farmer and have been out of control for a while now. Also, how about coming up with some sort of crop insurance policies to cover flood, drought losses.

by truthbetold Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:01 pm

Your points about fertilizers and crop insurance are legitimate. But confusing those points with india's food security and farmer's ability to make a living is not wise.

India's point is (a) The yearly allowance for subsidies should be calculated on latest cost figures and not 1980's prices (b) That arrangement should be permanent. West is looking for immediate gains. Hence the difficulty.

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:12 pm

truthbetold wrote:Your points about fertilizers and crop insurance are legitimate. But confusing those points with india's food security and farmer's ability to make a living is not wise.

India's point is (a) The yearly allowance for subsidies should be calculated on latest cost figures and not 1980's prices (b) That arrangement should be permanent. West is looking for immediate gains. Hence the difficulty.

I understand that our main gripe is with subsidy formula. But we should take this opportunity to bargain to our advantage, we should ask these developed countries to help us with streamlining infrastructure needed to meet their requirements, which will help the country leap forward.

by truthbetold Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:13 pm

CD

do you think that infrastructure (including indian mind) can change in a day or two?

If you drop your partisan blinkers, you can see that indian govt has some smart people working for it and they will think through problems. I do admit there is one big problem when you are riding the tiger. You should get off it before it is too late. Most people get complacent and pay the price. Let us hope India does not overplay its cards.

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:41 pm

truthbetold wrote:CD

do you think that infrastructure (including indian mind) can change in a day or two?

nor it is reasonable to expect an open ended special privilege to an entity, in an agreement that involves multiple entities (150+ countries). India needs to have a better strategy to convince them than throwing a monkey wrench.

by truthbetold Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:51 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:CD

do you think that infrastructure (including indian mind) can change in a day or two?
nor it is reasonable to expect an open ended special privilege to an entity, in an agreement that involves multiple entities (150+ countries). India needs to have a better strategy to convince them than throwing a monkey wrench.

There are several countries who side with India. They are waiting for the outcome of this tussle. The monkey wrench was a result of devious plan by west. The original plan was to resolve the subsidy amendment issue before the deadline. West quietly shelved it and hoped for completing the deal by using pressure tactics. India did not budge.

This is a not just a moral argument. There is a real danger India will not be able to protect its food security process with the current arrangement. Hence the stubborn attitude.

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:04 pm

truthbetold wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:CD

do you think that infrastructure (including indian mind) can change in a day or two?
nor it is reasonable to expect an open ended special privilege to an entity, in an agreement that involves multiple entities (150+ countries). India needs to have a better strategy to convince them than throwing a monkey wrench.
There are several countries who side with India. They are waiting for the outcome of this tussle. The monkey wrench was a result of devious plan by west. The original plan was to resolve the subsidy amendment issue before the deadline. West quietly shelved it and hoped for completing the deal by using pressure tactics. India did not budge.

This is a not just a moral argument. There is a real danger India will not be able to protect its food security process with the current arrangement. Hence the stubborn attitude.

"India almost blocked the Bali deal over the issue before winning what amounted to WTO immunity for its food programme that would remain in place until a permanent solution was negotiated. A target of December 2017 was set. However, the new government of Narendra Modi has sought to unwind that agreement. It wants the WTO to negotiate a deal on food security by the end of this year, and wants to link the progress of the issue to the implementation of the trade facilitation agreement."

"In theory, yes. No one is opposed to tackling negotiations over food security issues sooner than 2017. It should therefore be possible to establish a negotiating schedule that satisfies India’s demand for a more vigorous discussion on the issue and even potentially reach a deal by the end of the year."

"But the EU, the US and others have made clear they will not renegotiate the timelines set in Bali. And they certainly do not like the idea of linking the implementation of the trade facilitation agreement to progress on food security."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8f28e670-1866-11e4-a82d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz39ChPo2YX

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:09 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:CD

do you think that infrastructure (including indian mind) can change in a day or two?
nor it is reasonable to expect an open ended special privilege to an entity, in an agreement that involves multiple entities (150+ countries). India needs to have a better strategy to convince them than throwing a monkey wrench.

As I posted in another thread why cant the West SIMPLY agree to remove the comma, and India will pass the TFA.

If the West's assurance has any credibility, they can back it up by removing the comma. Their very rejection and only will "assure" shows their assurance is fake - the usual sweet words of nothing.

Believe me..India's stock has gone up sky high and only the Ruskies (and the evil axis) had the guts to oppose the West on any issue until China reared its head 10 years ago. Now ONE large, democratic country - a non-Veto member of UN - has stood up to the West for the first time.

by truthbetold Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:10 pm

CD

Again there is lot of information pushed out to support west's position. But the basic understanding was undercut. These negotiations were going from mid 1990s. A little delay is not going to change any thing. It just takes some more time to sign on the dotted line.

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:27 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:CD

do you think that infrastructure (including indian mind) can change in a day or two?
nor it is reasonable to expect an open ended special privilege to an entity, in an agreement that involves multiple entities (150+ countries). India needs to have a better strategy to convince them than throwing a monkey wrench.

As I posted in another thread why cant the West SIMPLY agree to remove the comma, and India will pass the TFA.

If the West's assurance has any credibility, they can back it up by removing the comma. Their very rejection and only will "assure" shows their assurance is fake - the usual sweet words of nothing.

Believe me..India's stock has gone up sky high and only the Ruskies (and the evil axis) had the guts to oppose the West on any issue until China reared its head 10 years ago. Now ONE large, democratic country - a non-Veto member of UN - has stood up to the West for the first time.

-> you mean false bravado? Here is why India need to tone down a bit.

"Secondly, India has bigger stakes in multilateral trade negotiations continuing under the WTO. The US is at best neutral to the WTO. It is more interested in the Trans-Pacific and North American treaty, and so is the rest of the developed world including EU, Japan and Australia.

India does not enjoy geographical proximity to the big markets and for historical reasons of starting late on reforms is not yet part of any big trading block. So, India has more invested in the WTO process and has reaped some rewards as well. The fact that India can rightfully seek MFN from Pakistan is because of the WTO.
If the WTO collapses, India will be under greater pressure to enter into bilateral arrangements, something that has not worked out the way the country has wanted. Besides, the world will also know how desperate India would be to enter into trade agreements, not the best situation for the country to get a good bargain.
As the economy picks up and India becomes the preffered destination for investors, the country will have a better chance to negotiate on its terms. For now, it would make sense to keep WTO going."
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-07-28/news/52139159_1_trade-facilitation-food-security-issue-mfn

by truthbetold Sat Aug 02, 2014 12:00 am

Once again CD,

Don't you think the people in the govt are weighing all this?

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Aug 02, 2014 12:38 am

confuzzled dude wrote:

-> you mean false bravado? Here is why India need to tone down a bit.

"Secondly, India has bigger stakes in multilateral trade negotiations continuing under the WTO. The US is at best neutral to the WTO. It is more interested in the Trans-Pacific and North American treaty, and so is the rest of the developed world including EU, Japan and Australia.

India does not enjoy geographical proximity to the big markets and for historical reasons of starting late on reforms is not yet part of any big trading block. So, India has more invested in the WTO process and has reaped some rewards as well. The fact that India can rightfully seek MFN from Pakistan is because of the WTO.
If the WTO collapses, India will be under greater pressure to enter into bilateral arrangements, something that has not worked out the way the country has wanted. Besides, the world will also know how desperate India would be to enter into trade agreements, not the best situation for the country to get a good bargain.
As the economy picks up and India becomes the preffered destination for investors, the country will have a better chance to negotiate on its terms. For now, it would make sense to keep WTO going."
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-07-28/news/52139159_1_trade-facilitation-food-security-issue-mfn

India itself is a HUGE market -its 300+ million middle class is bigger than the US market, bigger than South Korea and Japan together, bigger than Euro. With Modi slowly moving towards supply-side, and willing to act China-style against those opposed to him, none of the countries will ignore or score points against India later. Why ? one the very large market

two: C H I N A, West and Japan and SE need India to balance. US cannot depend on Russia, China is flexing its muscle. If India is pushed too hard, it can go the Ruskie way.

It ll boils down to the question of survival.

by truthbetold Sat Aug 02, 2014 12:54 pm

For all those doubting thomases and confused souls,

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/finance-minister-arun-jaitley-says-farmers-interest-paramount-cannot-be-compromised-in-world-trade-organisation/article6275425.ece?homepage=true

by swapna Sat Aug 02, 2014 1:45 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

If Modi had done what is suggested all AT ONCE india will be another Greece, Mexico or Argentina.

The West will come running as soon as India waves some doggy biscuits any time as all they are interested are the dog biscuits - not people, culture or others systems.

removing barriers to trade is beneficial to india no matter what other countries do. why would a government deny such benefits to the people of india?

by confuzzled dude Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:15 pm

truthbetold wrote:For all those doubting thomases and confused souls,

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/finance-minister-arun-jaitley-says-farmers-interest-paramount-cannot-be-compromised-in-world-trade-organisation/article6275425.ece?homepage=true

"One, food subsidies are opposed in the WTO because it distorts trade and pricing. This is fact - but this is a problem even in internal trade. What we need to do is first create a domestic free market for food by ending all barriers to food movement across India and reforming APMC rules that force farmers to sell only at designated markets.

Two, we have wrongly construed food security to mean two things: holding huge stocks of rice and wheat, and offering food procured at ever-increasing minimum support prices (MSPs) at highly subsidised prices to the alleged poor. Actually, the poor have moved on. What they need is income security, and the means to buy what they want in terms of food and nourishment."

The message to the Modi government is simple: stalling the TFA is fine only if you fast-forward plans to make India a manufacturing and export hub in the meanwhile. Signing the TFA by 31 December in return for vague assurances on food security would be okay if laws and regulations that make us uncompetitive are reduced or eliminated.

http://www.firstpost.com/india/wto-veto-is-fine-but-modis-real-challenge-is-fixing-things-at-home-1646359.html

by confuzzled dude Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:27 pm

"For the 2012–13 fiscal year, almost half of the foodgrains (approximately 25 million tonnes) purchased by the government were “misplaced” en route from warehouses to ration shops. In addition, about 30% of the foodgrains (15 million tonnes) were left to rot in government storage facilities. So in all, four-fifths of the foodgrains never reached the ration shops. The poor received less than 10% of the food that the government procured in their name."

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/dbDAOWLVSrGWgSRz12bMYM/Surjit-S-Bhalla--Dismantling-the-welfare-state.html?utm_source=copy

-> This is the point I had raised earlier, about Rs.44,0000 crores worth of food is wasted every year. If Modi were the implementer as they claim, he would've agreed to the 2017 deadline and acted on fixing internal issues that would streamline internal trade policies and minimize the wastage.

by truthbetold Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:29 pm

swapna wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

If Modi had done what is suggested all AT ONCE india will be another Greece, Mexico or Argentina.

The West will come running as soon as India waves some doggy biscuits any time as all they are interested are the dog biscuits - not people, culture or others systems.
removing barriers to trade is beneficial to india no matter what other countries do. why would a government deny such benefits to the people of india?

Framing the issue to only limit the discussion to an issue of trade barriers is ingratiating to the masters , in this case to western masters. Every market negotiation involves give and take. West wants india to give up the livelihoods of indian farmers to benefit the fully subsidized corporate farmers.

India is showing some backbone and standing up.

by truthbetold Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:36 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:"For the 2012–13 fiscal year, almost half of the foodgrains (approximately 25 million tonnes) purchased by the government were “misplaced” en route from warehouses to ration shops. In addition, about 30% of the foodgrains (15 million tonnes) were left to rot in government storage facilities. So in all, four-fifths of the foodgrains never reached the ration shops. The poor received less than 10% of the food that the government procured in their name."

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/dbDAOWLVSrGWgSRz12bMYM/Surjit-S-Bhalla--Dismantling-the-welfare-state.html?utm_source=copy

Yes. People of India should demand and get answers from the nincompoops who ran the country in 2012-2013 and for most of 60 years.

Every country has a chance to improve its internal functioning. It does not need to be confused with negotiations with other countries. You need to fight the battle with what you know and have and get the best deal.

There is an intense discussion within USA about farm subsidies exceeding 10s of billions. This issue is even more uglier when you look at the cuts to food stamps program.

Your political partisanship is blinding you to confuse to realities and leading to clutching on straws to save your argument.

by confuzzled dude Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:38 pm

truthbetold wrote:
swapna wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

If Modi had done what is suggested all AT ONCE india will be another Greece, Mexico or Argentina.

The West will come running as soon as India waves some doggy biscuits any time as all they are interested are the dog biscuits - not people, culture or others systems.
removing barriers to trade is beneficial to india no matter what other countries do. why would a government deny such benefits to the people of india?
Framing the issue to only limit the discussion to an issue of trade barriers is ingratiating to the masters , in this case to western masters. Every market negotiation involves give and take. West wants india to give up the livelihoods of indian farmers to benefit the fully subsidized corporate farmers.

India is showing some backbone and standing up.

Here is an article from Modi supporter Bhalla who is upset with his stance on WTO. Per him, this policy is not helping poor framers, only selected mid-to-rich farmers are benefited.

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/a-principled-congress-stance-at-the-wto/

by confuzzled dude Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:44 pm

truthbetold wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:"For the 2012–13 fiscal year, almost half of the foodgrains (approximately 25 million tonnes) purchased by the government were “misplaced” en route from warehouses to ration shops. In addition, about 30% of the foodgrains (15 million tonnes) were left to rot in government storage facilities. So in all, four-fifths of the foodgrains never reached the ration shops. The poor received less than 10% of the food that the government procured in their name."

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/dbDAOWLVSrGWgSRz12bMYM/Surjit-S-Bhalla--Dismantling-the-welfare-state.html?utm_source=copy
Yes. People of India should demand and get answers from the nincompoops who ran the country in 2012-2013 and for most of 60 years.

Every country has a chance to improve its internal functioning. It does not need to be confused with negotiations with other countries. You need to fight the battle with what you know and have and get the best deal.

There is an intense discussion within USA about farm subsidies exceeding 10s of billions. This issue is even more uglier when you look at the cuts to food stamps program.

Your political partisanship is blinding you to confuse to realities and leading to clutching on straws to save your argument.

What exactly are we negotiating with other countries that would benefit us & our internal logistics? What this demand for permanent stockpiling of food would do is, help us maintain status quo i.e. continuation of wastage of food grains and lack of push for infrastructure/logistical improvements.

by confuzzled dude Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:50 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:

-> you mean false bravado? Here is why India need to tone down a bit.

"Secondly, India has bigger stakes in multilateral trade negotiations continuing under the WTO. The US is at best neutral to the WTO. It is more interested in the Trans-Pacific and North American treaty, and so is the rest of the developed world including EU, Japan and Australia.

India does not enjoy geographical proximity to the big markets and for historical reasons of starting late on reforms is not yet part of any big trading block. So, India has more invested in the WTO process and has reaped some rewards as well. The fact that India can rightfully seek MFN from Pakistan is because of the WTO.
If the WTO collapses, India will be under greater pressure to enter into bilateral arrangements, something that has not worked out the way the country has wanted. Besides, the world will also know how desperate India would be to enter into trade agreements, not the best situation for the country to get a good bargain.
As the economy picks up and India becomes the preffered destination for investors, the country will have a better chance to negotiate on its terms. For now, it would make sense to keep WTO going."
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-07-28/news/52139159_1_trade-facilitation-food-security-issue-mfn

India itself is a HUGE market -its 300+ million middle class is bigger than the US market, bigger than South Korea and Japan together, bigger than Euro. With Modi slowly moving towards supply-side, and willing to act China-style against those opposed to him, none of the countries will ignore or score points against India later. Why ? one the very large market

two: C H I N A, West and Japan and SE need India to balance. US cannot depend on Russia, China is flexing its muscle. If India is pushed too hard, it can go the Ruskie way.

It ll boils down to the question of survival.

We've been perennial trade deficit country so what are the US/Euro going loose here, would WTO force us to import rice & wheat from the US?

by truthbetold Sat Aug 02, 2014 3:00 pm

CD

Indian demand is for a reasonable accommodation of its need to offer subsidies to farmers and its ability to secure required food quantities to counter the vagaries of weather and other events.

Once this principle is agreed to, the amount allowed to support the principle is a big discussion point.

India contends that present agreement set the cap at a very low level based on 1980s prices. Then such allowances may be removed after 4 years. India wants to recalculate the amounts based on latest prices and include an inflation and currency component.

In addition it wants the modified caps for a long time (permanent, if possible).

India's argument is very logical and is based on local realities. It will take india a long time to improve its internal situation and food security is key to stability. Failure on this front leads to huge people's revolts.

Hence the strong action.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Aug 02, 2014 3:04 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
What exactly are we negotiating with other countries that would benefit us & our internal logistics? What this demand for permanent stockpiling of food would do is, help us maintain status quo i.e. continuation of wastage of food grains and lack of push for infrastructure/logistical improvements.

HOLY Allah...You dont even know what is at issue here....and you have been blabbering away on everything related or unrelated (you have no idea anyway) just bcz Modi is involved.

by confuzzled dude Sat Aug 02, 2014 3:11 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
What exactly are we negotiating with other countries that would benefit us & our internal logistics? What this demand for permanent stockpiling of food would do is, help us maintain status quo i.e. continuation of wastage of food grains and lack of push for infrastructure/logistical improvements.

HOLY Allah...You dont even know what is at issue here....and you have been blabbering away on everything related or unrelated (you have no idea anyway) just bcz Modi is involved.

Duh! My point is permanent stockpile of food is a dumb idea won't help the poor and I don't see it as Modi's idea, he is not smart enough to have his own ideas, that is a separate discussion for another day.

by truthbetold Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:04 am

http://m.firstbiz.firstpost.com/economy/blocking-the-wto-deal-heres-why-india-decided-to-be-a-tough-negotiator-92558.html

Here is another attempt to educate partisan posters on this board.

by confuzzled dude Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:32 am

truthbetold wrote:http://m.firstbiz.firstpost.com/economy/blocking-the-wto-deal-heres-why-india-decided-to-be-a-tough-negotiator-92558.html

Here is another attempt to educate partisan posters on this board.

Before you blame others of being partisan you should take a look at your own positions.

https://such.forumotion.com/t25462-is-modi-another-bigoted-north-indian#167857

I'm always for helping farmers and I still am. Modi could've achieved the same result by going with previous govt. plan than pulling a school girl like dramabazi to gain a few political points which is no different than the previous UPA government's strategy that you accuse UPA of.

by truthbetold Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:26 am

confuzzled dude wrote:
truthbetold wrote:http://m.firstbiz.firstpost.com/economy/blocking-the-wto-deal-heres-why-india-decided-to-be-a-tough-negotiator-92558.html

Here is another attempt to educate partisan posters on this board.
Before you blame others of being partisan you should take a look at your own positions.

https://such.forumotion.com/t25462-is-modi-another-bigoted-north-indian#167857

I'm always for helping farmers and I still am. Modi could've achieved the same result by going with previous govt. plan than pulling a school girl like dramabazi to gain a few political points which is no different than the previous UPA government's strategy that you accuse UPA of.

CD

I still am critical of doles. But the food security is the law of the land and once introduced it is now powerful than even reservations. You cannot repeal it. So indian govt is required to comply with it. Current govt is trying to make the best of a bad situation. If they do not stand up at wto and keep paying 21 billions now and more in future, they will be breaking wto caps. They have to then pay huge fines or lose export privileges. In other words UPA pushed this food security bill to put NDA in a major fix. They(NDA) are trying to make the best of it.

Now food security bill is not a bad thing. Who can oppose food to all. But can India afford the cost. Probably not. One good thing that is likely to happen is the GOI is forced to cut down on petrol and diesel subsidies(mostly benefiting middle classes or urbanites). If India can somehow manage food security law implementation, it is good for the poor in India. If they mange it well it is great for the poor.

For the sake of Indian poor, let us hope this over zealous food security law implementation is successful and india still makes economic progress. Tough but it has to be done.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sun Aug 03, 2014 12:40 pm

swapna wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

If Modi had done what is suggested all AT ONCE india will be another Greece, Mexico or Argentina.

The West will come running as soon as India waves some doggy biscuits any time as all they are interested are the dog biscuits - not people, culture or others systems.
removing barriers to trade is beneficial to india no matter what other countries do. why would a government deny such benefits to the people of india?

You are a reaganesque trickle down theorist.

The Bali gives a set limit of stock piling of food grains. The Govt uses this to support basic farm prices. Also, India is monsoon dependent. It has the nasty habit of failing once every 5 years and less than adequate in one or twice in 5 years. Then the Bali-limited stockpiles will not be suifficient. The West's solution is "import" from other countries (means the West - Aussie, canada, US). Of course, poor countries have no money, and the West will provide AID to help import, the AID money is paid to the exporting farmers in the West. The West will end up being the kingmakers as many poor countries suffer crop failures every year. Of course, West knows this issue and that is why it threw in a "promise" to "consider" these. We all know about how West is expert in twisting assurances given to poor countries. This is just ONE issue.

The whole world supports the Bali pact is a lie. Only the G7 counts in this world - consensus or Veto. At best, they accomodate other whities like Euros. There was a great article on how the US State dept controls and cajoles poor African and South American countries through third parties - to circumvent US laws.

Bali is a Business deal and naturally, everyone look after their own interest with all that Popeish talks. Overriding India ? yeah rite. Avoid 1/5th of the world population - a democracy and an open society? The West has absolutely no GUTS in doing that - considering the military angle.

by confuzzled dude Sun Aug 03, 2014 1:53 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
swapna wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office with a reputation as a business-friendly leader ready to open up one of the world's biggest markets and sweep away the remnants of the country's socialist past.

Now potential investors, some of them foreign firms hoping to exploit new opportunities in India's vast consumer market, are scratching their heads after Modi's party walked away from a major deal to reform customs rules and make global trade easier."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-india-trade-modi-idUSKBN0G14MG20140801

If Modi had done what is suggested all AT ONCE india will be another Greece, Mexico or Argentina.

The West will come running as soon as India waves some doggy biscuits any time as all they are interested are the dog biscuits - not people, culture or others systems.
removing barriers to trade is beneficial to india no matter what other countries do. why would a government deny such benefits to the people of india?

You are a reaganesque trickle down theorist.

The Bali gives a set limit of stock piling of food grains. The Govt uses this to support basic farm prices. Also, India is monsoon dependent. It has the nasty habit of failing once every 5 years and less than adequate in one or twice in 5 years. Then the Bali-limited stockpiles will not be suifficient. The West's solution is "import" from other countries (means the West - Aussie, canada, US). Of course, poor countries have no money, and the West will provide AID to help import, the AID money is paid to the exporting farmers in the West. The West will end up being the kingmakers as many poor countries suffer crop failures every year. Of course, West knows this issue and that is why it threw in a "promise" to "consider" these. We all know about how West is expert in twisting assurances given to poor countries. This is just ONE issue.

The whole world supports the Bali pact is a lie. Only the G7 counts in this world - consensus or Veto. At best, they accomodate other whities like Euros. There was a great article on how the US State dept controls and cajoles poor African and South American countries through third parties - to circumvent US laws.

Bali is a Business deal and naturally, everyone look after their own interest with all that Popeish talks. Overriding India ? yeah rite. Avoid 1/5th of the world population - a democracy and an open society? The West has absolutely no GUTS in doing that - considering the military angle.

What's with these GUTS that you keep invoking in every other post, a sure sign of limpwristed breast beating? What you're suggesting is to keep doing the the same thing over to expect different results, unfortunately it won't happen, stockpiles of food grains will continue to rot, will be dumped in the sea as usual, and only a quarter or less of it will be reaching the needy.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sun Aug 03, 2014 1:58 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
What's with these GUTS that you keep invoking in every other post, a sure sign of limpwristed breast beating? What you're suggesting is to keep doing the the same thing over to expect different results, unfortunately it won't happen, stockpiles of food grains will continue to rot, will be dumped in the sea as usual, and only a quarter or less of it will be reaching the needy.

That is a street vocab in Tamil. meaning there is 0% chance of that ever happening.

Or we can diplomatically say "If you are not a Eunuch prove it... Razz

"

by confuzzled dude Sun Aug 03, 2014 2:56 pm

truthbetold wrote:

I still am critical of doles. But the food security is the law of the land and once introduced it is now powerful than even reservations. You cannot repeal it. So indian govt is required to comply with it. Current govt is trying to make the best of a bad situation. If they do not stand up at wto and keep paying 21 billions now and more in future, they will be breaking wto caps. They have to then pay huge fines or lose export privileges. In other words UPA pushed this food security bill to put NDA in a major fix. They(NDA) are trying to make the best of it.

Now food security bill is not a bad thing. Who can oppose food to all. But can India afford the cost. Probably not. One good thing that is likely to happen is the GOI is forced to cut down on petrol and diesel subsidies(mostly benefiting middle classes or urbanites). If India can somehow manage food security law implementation, it is good for the poor in India. If they mange it well it is great for the poor.

For the sake of Indian poor, let us hope this over zealous food security law implementation is successful and india still makes economic progress. Tough but it has to be done.

I agree with your premise but from what I gather food security bill is going to push subsidy cost from .8% of GDP to 1.1% or about $24 billion, which is about 2.5 times(?) the WTO's cap, some of which can be recouped as stockpiling wastage/expense would be lot less. In any event, govt's actions don't match with their words, per the news item below.

"Contrary to the public posturing, the BJP-led NDA Government has threatened to stop procurement if States pay higher than the minimum support price (MSP) for foodgrains, especially wheat and paddy,” AIKS said in a statement.

Instead of increasing the crop basket under purview of the price support mechanism and enhancing the procurement network, the Agriculture Ministry and the Commission of Agricultural Costs and Prices have been pushing for pruning the list of crops from the existing list, it"

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/india-wto-stance/article6277248.ece

by confuzzled dude Mon Aug 04, 2014 2:33 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:What's with these GUTS that you keep invoking in every other post, a sure sign of limpwristed breast beating? What you're suggesting is to keep doing the the same thing over to expect different results, unfortunately it won't happen, stockpiles of food grains will continue to rot, will be dumped in the sea as usual, and only a quarter or less of it will be reaching the needy.

"Not surprisingly, protectionists mobilized to use the July 31 deadline to block the deal. And India, which has isolated itself from its fellow middle-income and developing nations with its trade obstructionism, was a natural champion. Mr. Modi may have won a landslide victory in May on a platform of reinvigorating the economy, but farmers remain a powerful lobby for the government grain purchasing scheme that Bali would have rolled back. With state elections approaching, the Prime Minister evidently made a political calculation.

The irony is that the grain-procurement program hurts India's poor. This deal would be the perfect excuse to kill it in favor of direct aid for farmers when the monsoon rains fail. Delhi and the states run a huge bureaucracy to buy grain at above-market prices and sell it to the urban poor at below-market prices. This drains government coffers of money to fund development. It distorts the price signals that would direct farmers to plant the right crops in the right amounts. And much of the food rots or is stolen. A World Bank study in 2011 found that only 41% of the food intended for the poor reached them."

http://online.wsj.com/articles/modis-trade-barricade-1407086380#livefyre-comment

by smArtha Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:14 pm

CD - When it comes to agriculture and food grain distribution the Western Media has a limited or distorted view. They can only look at it and justify from where they stand but not based on ground realities in India. You are generally better off pushing all the reuters, cnbc, wsj op-eds or pieces under the carpet and just concentrate on reading the experts in India.
Food Security - as a concept and goal but not necessarily the particular way of accomplishing it - is one thing of the UPA-2 I applaud. Of what use is any kind of development if we cannot guarantee the fundamental survival need for all of the population. More so, if the quantity we produce within the country is sufficient enough to address such minimal needs.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:17 pm

[quote="confuzzled dude"]

confuzzled dude wrote:What's with these GUTS that you keep invoking in every other post, a sure sign of limpwristed breast beating? It distorts the price signals that would direct farmers to plant the right crops in the right amounts. And much of the food rots or is stolen. A World Bank study in 2011 found that only 41% of the food intended for the poor reached them."[/i]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/modis-trade-barricade-1407086380#livefyre-comment

Then why don't you criticize UPA-Cong(i) for running this program for 50 years and create this "entitlement" feeling among the poor of India?

by confuzzled dude Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:38 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote: What's with these GUTS that you keep invoking in every other post, a sure sign of limpwristed breast beating? It distorts the price signals that would direct farmers to plant the right crops in the right amounts. And much of the food rots or is stolen. A World Bank study in 2011 found that only 41% of the food intended for the poor reached them."[/i]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/modis-trade-barricade-1407086380#livefyre-comment

Then why don't you criticize UPA-Cong(i) for running this program for 50 years and create this "entitlement" feeling among the poor of India?

UPA had a plan to end it, they had agreed to reduce these subsidies to required levels by 2017 Razz

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:43 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Then why don't you criticize UPA-Cong(i) for running this program for 50 years and create this "entitlement" feeling among the poor of India?
UPA had a plan to end it, they had agreed to reduce these subsidies to required levels by 2017

Modi ji also has a (secret) plan to end it...and it cannot be revealed at this time.

by smArtha Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:32 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:UPA had a plan to end it, they had agreed to reduce these subsidies to required levels by 2017

Afaik, even UPA had no plan. It probably would have resorted to what Modi did now or tighten the food subsidy plan to drop a significant percent off that entitlement.

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:32 pm

"What accounts for India’s chronic food insecurity? Farm output has been setting new records in recent years, having increased output from 208 million tons in 2005-2006 to an estimated 263 million tons in 2013-2014. India needs 225-230 million tons of food per year; so, even accounting for recent population growth, food production is clearly not the main issue.

The most significant factor – one that policymakers have long ignored – is that a high proportion of the food that India produces never reaches consumers. Sharad Pawar, a former agriculture minister, has noted that food worth $8.3 billion, or nearly 40% of the total value of annual production, is wasted.

This does not capture the full picture: for example, meat accounts for about 4% of food wastage but 20% of the costs, while 70% of fruit and vegetable output is wasted, accounting for 40% of the total cost. India may be the world’s largest milk producer and grow the second largest quantity of fruits and vegetables (after China), but it is also the world’s biggest waster of food. As a result, fruit and vegetable prices are twice what they would be otherwise, and milk costs 50% more than it should.

It is not only perishable food that is squandered. An estimated 21 million tons of wheat – equivalent to Australia’s entire annual crop – rots or is eaten by insects, owing to inadequate storage and poor management at the government-run Food Corporation of India (FCI). Food-price inflation since 2008-2009 has been consistently above 10%, (except for 2010-2011, when it was “only” 6.2%); the poor, whose grocery bills typically account for 31% of the household budget, have suffered the most."

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/asit-k--biswas-and-cecilia-tortajada-attribute-shortages-and-undernourishment-to-widespread-wastage-of-output#hVsyBoKwLLCTZ2i5.99

by confuzzled dude Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:01 pm

An estimated $9 billion is needed for cold storage facilities to control the annual wastage of about $5 billion worth of perishable foods, which in turn will help contain food prices. Instead of focusing on this Govt. is more interested in picking wrong fights.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/narendra-modi-sticks-to-failed-recipe-in-food-inflation-fight/articleshow/39845202.cms?curpg=2

by confuzzled dude Sat Aug 09, 2014 10:13 am

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-now/daily/modi-defends-indias-tough-stand-at-wto/videoshow/39956792.cms

Comrade Modi? Putin like speech.

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