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Log inKaran Thapar: There are three lessons from the recent by elections, two of them for Narendra Modi
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Karan Thapar: There are three lessons from the recent by elections, two of them for Narendra Modi
by Guest Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:14 pm
There are, however, three other lessons from these by-elections, though of a lesser order. At least two are for Mr Narendra Modi.
First, when the BJP talks of development, youth and issues like health, water, electricity and education the country will vote in overwhelming numbers for the party. That’s what happened in May. But change the tune and the outcome is very different.
The second is more tenuous but also more flattering for the prime minister. I suspect India voted for him in May, not for his party or its legacy. He epitomised the promise of change and they believed him.
The third lesson is psephological. If the anti-BJP political forces can unite or, at least, not split their votes, the BJP can be checked. No doubt the Shiv Sena will use this lesson to its advantage in Maharashtra.
The BJP can draw some comfort from an analysis done by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies of 1,100 by-elections for assembly seats between 1967 and 2012. It shows that the ruling party in a state is more likely to win than the ruling party at the Centre and, second, when the two parties are different, the ruling party in the state is twice as likely to win a by-poll. But for this to be really comforting the BJP would have to admit they knew they would lose. That, I’m sure, they’re not prepared to say.
The truth is that of the 50 assembly seats where by-elections have been held since May, the BJP had 34 and with its allies 35. Of these, they’ve lost 21 and their ally another one. Now, 22 out of 35 is a loss of nearly 63%. When defeat is of that scale it’s hard to be comforted by statistics.
- See more at: http://www.hindustantimes.com/comment/karanthapar/bypolls-message-for-bjp-the-hindu-voter-is-secular/article1-1266585.aspx#sthash.bWH2m2xE.yTCrsznM.dpuf
First, when the BJP talks of development, youth and issues like health, water, electricity and education the country will vote in overwhelming numbers for the party. That’s what happened in May. But change the tune and the outcome is very different.
The second is more tenuous but also more flattering for the prime minister. I suspect India voted for him in May, not for his party or its legacy. He epitomised the promise of change and they believed him.
The third lesson is psephological. If the anti-BJP political forces can unite or, at least, not split their votes, the BJP can be checked. No doubt the Shiv Sena will use this lesson to its advantage in Maharashtra.
The BJP can draw some comfort from an analysis done by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies of 1,100 by-elections for assembly seats between 1967 and 2012. It shows that the ruling party in a state is more likely to win than the ruling party at the Centre and, second, when the two parties are different, the ruling party in the state is twice as likely to win a by-poll. But for this to be really comforting the BJP would have to admit they knew they would lose. That, I’m sure, they’re not prepared to say.
The truth is that of the 50 assembly seats where by-elections have been held since May, the BJP had 34 and with its allies 35. Of these, they’ve lost 21 and their ally another one. Now, 22 out of 35 is a loss of nearly 63%. When defeat is of that scale it’s hard to be comforted by statistics.
- See more at: http://www.hindustantimes.com/comment/karanthapar/bypolls-message-for-bjp-the-hindu-voter-is-secular/article1-1266585.aspx#sthash.bWH2m2xE.yTCrsznM.dpuf
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