Red flags that BJP cannot ignore

Social stability

The controversy over conversions, ghar wapsi, is slowly but surely raising the temperature in the country. The anti-minority tirades and actions of some radical Hindutva groups and the backing they have received from the RSS have the potential to create severe communal tensions in the country. The Prime Minister has remained silent on the blatantly communal utterances of his MPs, which is confounding, since he is known to speak freely on every other subject.

This has undoubtedly encouraged these “fringe” elements, who are getting more and more vocal and aggressive. Concerns have now been expressed by the corporate sector, Modi’s firmest backers, that if this rising tide of intolerance is not stopped soon, it could completely derail the economic agenda of the government. Investors want easy rules and regulations, but get nervous when they see instability.

Managing allies and partners

The BJP has tied up with partners in different states, many of whom came on because they saw advantages in joining hands with a party on the rise. These alliances help the BJP too, since without them, the party couldn’t form a majority government, such as with the Sena in Maharashtra. But Big Brother has begun to throw its weight about—most allies are finding out that they don’t count for much in the BJP scheme of things—whether Chandrababu Naidu (who was in an exalted position during Vajpayee’s NDA) or the Akalis or indeed smaller outfits like Paswan’s LJP, none of them are fully comfortable with the BJP. Smaller outfits in Tamil Nadu have even left the BJP, though that makes no difference to the latter. At the moment the allies have no other option, but if at all things go bad, politically, the disgruntled partners will make their displeasure known.

The economy

The much promised Achhe Din are taking their own time coming. While just about seven months have passed since the government took over and much is still to come, there is a growing feeling that the much promised big ticket reforms are nowhere to be found and the economy is still to receive that great boost that was expected. Oil prices are low and inflation almost non-existent, but that could change at any time. The rupee is dipping at a steady pace and foreign investors are still waiting before they make big commitments.

The government, unable to get crucial bills passed, has resorted to the ordinance route in the case of the Insurance Bill, but how often can it do that? Moreover, passing a bill is one thing, getting people to invest is quite another.