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Predictions for 2015
by harharmahadev Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:14 am
I had posted these predictions at another site on 01/07/2015
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Here are my predictions for 2015.
- S&P will fall to 1600 or lower. Most market participants will be taken by complete surprise, similar to the dramatic fall of oil prices in 2014.
- Euro will trade at parity or lower that USD
- INR will trade be tween Rs50-Rs60 to USD.
- Indian economy will grow despite a global slowdown. India will be one of the best performing asset class.
- Gold will rise and will end the year over 20% higher.
- Comodifies in general will end the year lower.
- Interest rates in the US will be range bound. Short term and long term rates will trend higher but won't have wild moves.
- US employment rate will rise. The economy will be resilient. The stock market fall will not have the same dramatic effect on employment as it did in 2007-08-09.
---
--
Here are my predictions for 2015.
- S&P will fall to 1600 or lower. Most market participants will be taken by complete surprise, similar to the dramatic fall of oil prices in 2014.
- Euro will trade at parity or lower that USD
- INR will trade be tween Rs50-Rs60 to USD.
- Indian economy will grow despite a global slowdown. India will be one of the best performing asset class.
- Gold will rise and will end the year over 20% higher.
- Comodifies in general will end the year lower.
- Interest rates in the US will be range bound. Short term and long term rates will trend higher but won't have wild moves.
- US employment rate will rise. The economy will be resilient. The stock market fall will not have the same dramatic effect on employment as it did in 2007-08-09.
---
harharmahadev- Posts : 1155
Join date : 2011-04-29
Age : 51 -
Re: Predictions for 2015
by harharmahadev Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:26 am
A few more predictions...
- There is going to be significant volatility this year. There will be wild swings towards the mid of this year. By wild, I mean double digit % points in stocks.
- Currency battles will continue to rage. The Swiss have already initiated this by withdrawing a peg to the Euro.
- Central Bankers will begin to withdraw their interventionalist policies. They will allow the "free markets" to take control of market prices. This transition is going to have a deflationary effect on the market.
- There is going to be significant volatility this year. There will be wild swings towards the mid of this year. By wild, I mean double digit % points in stocks.
- Currency battles will continue to rage. The Swiss have already initiated this by withdrawing a peg to the Euro.
- Central Bankers will begin to withdraw their interventionalist policies. They will allow the "free markets" to take control of market prices. This transition is going to have a deflationary effect on the market.
harharmahadev- Posts : 1155
Join date : 2011-04-29
Age : 51 -
Re: Predictions for 2015
by rawemotions Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:50 am
a) At what point do you think the Market will start going down and what do you think will be trigger & other factors that influence volatility ? Most punters seem to think it will touch 2200-300 before it starts going down.harharmahadev wrote:I had posted these predictions at another site on 01/07/2015
--
Here are my predictions for 2015.
- S&P will fall to 1600 or lower. Most market participants will be taken by complete surprise, similar to the dramatic fall of oil prices in 2014.
- Euro will trade at parity or lower that USD
- INR will trade be tween Rs50-Rs60 to USD.
- Indian economy will grow despite a global slowdown. India will be one of the best performing asset class.
- Gold will rise and will end the year over 20% higher.
- Comodifies in general will end the year lower.
- Interest rates in the US will be range bound. Short term and long term rates will trend higher but won't have wild moves.
- US employment rate will rise. The economy will be resilient. The stock market fall will not have the same dramatic effect on employment as it did in 2007-08-09.
---
b) In Commodities are you also including Oil ? Due you think Oil will end the year lower.
c) Since China influences commodities, are you assuming
that China will continue its slowdown throughout 2015 ?
rawemotions- Posts : 1690
Join date : 2011-05-03
Re: Predictions for 2015
by harharmahadev Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:21 am
a. A number of factors could trigger a market collapse. The energy sector capex reductions, drop in second or third quarter earning, fed hinting at reducing market intervention .. it could be a variety of reasons. Most importantly, it is me posting my predictions which sets the events in motion.
b. Oil has already taken a considerable hit. It is possible for oil to go lower / significantly lower. It is also possible for oil to go higher. Economically speaking, geopolitics would play a key role. But since I have to make a prediction, I'll say, Oil will end the year between $45 - $55.
c. There will definitely be a slowdown in China.
b. Oil has already taken a considerable hit. It is possible for oil to go lower / significantly lower. It is also possible for oil to go higher. Economically speaking, geopolitics would play a key role. But since I have to make a prediction, I'll say, Oil will end the year between $45 - $55.
c. There will definitely be a slowdown in China.
harharmahadev- Posts : 1155
Join date : 2011-04-29
Age : 51 -
Hellsangel- Posts : 14721
Join date : 2011-04-28
Re: Predictions for 2015
by Propagandhi711 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:11 am
harharmahadev wrote:a. A number of factors could trigger a market collapse. The energy sector capex reductions, drop in second or third quarter earning, fed hinting at reducing market intervention .. it could be a variety of reasons. Most importantly, it is me posting my predictions which sets the events in motion.
b. Oil has already taken a considerable hit. It is possible for oil to go lower / significantly lower. It is also possible for oil to go higher. Economically speaking, geopolitics would play a key role. But since I have to make a prediction, I'll say, Oil will end the year between $45 - $55.
c. There will definitely be a slowdown in China.
awesome.
wft@c...you are becoming more circumspect and playing it safe
Propagandhi711- Posts : 6941
Join date : 2011-04-29
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