Can the Congress revive?

There is a consistent pattern lately in how political leaderships, in spite of experience and old, hard-nosed wisdom, make fatal blunders in misreading electoral victories. The Congress, post-2009, is a good example. It read the repeat victory, with an even larger margin, as a mandate for the Gandhi family's handouts, not for what it actually was, five years of brilliant growth under Manmohan Singh. Before that, in 2003-04, the L.K. Advani-led BJP brass (Vajpayee was in disagreement with them) misread their sweeping wins in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in November 2003 as a result of a "feel-good" breeze blowing in a Shining India, and not simple anti-incumbency in three Congress-ruled states. Both paid for the misjudgement.

The other blunder clear winners of a decisive election make is in presuming that they have won the next election as well. So they start talking of 10-year, even 15-year, plans as if their Opposition will never revive. One essential characteristic of political cycles is that they turn: the BJP, from 2 seats in 1984, went up to nearly a 100 by 1989 and then up and up, to now. Our voters detest arrogance.

This case is now built on the latest India Today Group-Cicero Mood of the Nation (MOTN) opinion poll, results of which are published in this issue. It shows a significant fall in Modi's popularity (though the loss of only 27 seats yet) despite the hype of foreign visits and absence of corruption scandals. It also shows that many more people now think the Congress can revive, in spite of grave doubts over Rahul Gandhi's commitment and credibility.

The most important finding, however, is the change in popular perception of Modi as a leader. Six months back, an overwhelming majority believed he was a development-oriented leader. Now about the same number see him as a Hindutva leader. The Vikas Purush people had elected so warmly is now becoming a Hindu Hriday Samrat, just as his decimated opponents had predicted.
Some of the BJP's misreading of the May 2014 verdict followed the pattern common to all democracies-belief that it was in for much longer than five years and that the Opposition was not just dead, but buried.