Bihar Elections: there will be no half-measures; the result is going to be clear and decisive. Think Delhi, think Kejriwal: 67 out of 70.

by Guest Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:13 pm

A victory for the Grand Alliance of Nitish and Laloo is by no means signed, sealed and delivered. Far from it. But in his first real face-off with seasoned political players, not of the spreadsheet variety, and in a state where politics courses through its people’s veins, Narendra Modi has more than met his match. Every slur, every sting operation, every bit of misinformation has been countered in a manner Team Modi has been unaccustomed to so far. So much so that psephologists say that in a bipolar election like this, there will be no half-measures; the result is going to be clear and decisive. Think Delhi, think Kejriwal: 67 out of 70.

“When we met Nitish Kumar on the night of the third round of polling, he appeared cool, calm and completely confident of what lies in store and without a touch of arrogance or triumphalism,” says a limousine liberal from Lutyens’ Delhi touring Bihar. “He did not volunteer a number, saying he was not so ‘ghamandi’ (arrogant) to hazard a guess about the voter’s mind, but he left no one in any doubt that Modi, who looked like he could walk on water just a year ago, was on very thin ice here.” If that prognosis were to come true, if the people of Bihar were to place their trust in Nitish and Laloo, it has implications for national politics going beyond Bihar.
Never count the votes before the EVMs have been latched, goes an old ‘Jungle Raj’ saying, but seasoned political observers say a potential BJP defeat in Bihar could:

reconfigure Modi’s position in the cabinet, party and Sangh
embolden critics to oppose a fresh term for Shah
test the depth of RSS’s increasing closeness to BJP
unite and revive a comatose and fragmented opposition at the national level
alter equations in other states going to polls
dash the BJP’s hopes of winning numbers in the Rajya Sabha
***

Win or lose, it’s quite possible that Modi will continue to campaign in states vigorously and vehemently. A loss in Bihar, however, might just force him to consider the risks he is taking by overexposing himself. Really, no prime minister after Independence has campaigned so extensively in state elections. Even Indira Gandhi and Atal Behari Vajpayee would campaign selectively. In Bihar, Modi has stepped into remote areas and block headquarters, areas like Makhdumpur and Marhaura, where no PM had gone before.

http://www.outlookindia.com/article/is-the-cha-cutting-enough/295740