Obama's chances improving - Romney could be the next president

by truthbetold Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:18 pm

Yes. Obama moved from a sitting duck to a fighting chance. Romney is consolidating his grip on Repub nomination. Romney is still polling very well in comparison to Obama. Romney's "business" background and "moderate" views could make many more states competitive. Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, and other toss up states become very tight races.

Same old factors are critical. Europe debt resolution, Umemployment in US, and people's perception of US house of reps. Any one of them could make Obama unelectable. Payrool issue was a gift to Obama. When congress comes back, Repubs will surely play that one differently.

Current odds: Romney 51 - Obama 49.

by MaxEntropy_Man Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:29 pm

for once the republicans have a candidate who is actually brainy, who doesn't have a hugely distorted view of reality, has interesting economic proposals, and is supportive of science. but he has no chance of catching fire anytime soon. very sad.

by charvaka Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:48 pm

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:for once the republicans have a candidate who is actually brainy, who doesn't have a hugely distorted view of reality, has interesting economic proposals, and is supportive of science. but he has no chance of catching fire anytime soon. very sad.

Are you talking about Huntsman?

by charvaka Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:49 pm

truthbetold wrote:Yes. Obama moved from a sitting duck to a fighting chance. Romney is consolidating his grip on Repub nomination. Romney is still polling very well in comparison to Obama. Romney's "business" background and "moderate" views could make many more states competitive. Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, and other toss up states become very tight races.

Same old factors are critical. Europe debt resolution, Umemployment in US, and people's perception of US house of reps. Any one of them could make Obama unelectable. Payrool issue was a gift to Obama. When congress comes back, Repubs will surely play that one differently.

Current odds: Romney 51 - Obama 49.

Obama's odds depend entirely on the economy circa September 2012. Romney will win if unemployment is still near 9%; Obama will win if it's below 8%. Romney isn't dynamic or conservative enough to mobilize the masses, so he needs to root for economic doom.

by Kris Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:29 am

[/quote]Obama's odds depend entirely on the economy circa September 2012. Romney will win if unemployment is still near 9%; Obama will win if it's below 8%. Romney isn't dynamic or conservative enough to mobilize the masses, so he needs to root for economic doom.[/quote]

>>>Yeah, this stat will be crucial. I also don't rule out the possibility of a disunited GOP, with all the back and forth. Remember this is the party of the tea partiers

by MaxEntropy_Man Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:34 am

charvaka wrote:Are you talking about Huntsman?

yes.

by charvaka Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:38 am

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
charvaka wrote:Are you talking about Huntsman?

yes.

The very qualities you list make him unattractive to the GOP base. I was hoping he would do well in NH, but looks like his best bet is a third place finish, after which all his supporters have to move to Romney.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:07 am

Not happening. Obamalu will win comfortably. As I predicted last year, the unemployment has started inching down - will reach justtttt below 8% in October in time for the elections. Iraq war over, Afghani war over,

And in any case, he can lob a couple of missiles at the Iranian plant in June/July to push him comfortably over the margin.

P.S. Israeli intelligence reports that they are preparing for a Nuclear iran, which they are expecting to happen within a year - surprise surprise.

by charvaka Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:19 am

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:Not happening. Obamalu will win comfortably. As I predicted last year, the unemployment has started inching down - will reach justtttt below 8% in October in time for the elections. Iraq war over, Afghani war over,

I hope you are right.

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:And in any case, he can lob a couple of missiles at the Iranian plant in June/July to push him comfortably over the margin.

P.S. Israeli intelligence reports that they are preparing for a Nuclear iran, which they are expecting to happen within a year - surprise surprise.

Iran is not the Sudan, Somalia or Libya. Lobbing missiles at Iran won't be something Obama can easily get away with.

The only option for Israel is to bomb them now, or prepare to live for the long run with a nuclear Iran -- and consequently, a nuclear Saudi Arabia and perhaps Egypt. My wild suspicion is that the highest levels of Israeli government are torn about the decision.

by Kris Tue Jan 10, 2012 4:01 am

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
charvaka wrote:Are you talking about Huntsman?

yes.

>> He is the best of the lot, but won't get traction given the mindset of a big chunk of the GOP.

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