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time to push for permanent membership in the security council again

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Marathadi-Saamiyaar
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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:07 am

http://news.yahoo.com/india-tests-long-range-missile-reach-china-025428077.html
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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:40 am

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/india-tests-long-range-missile-reach-china-025428077.html

What will India do with its Veto ? Will take its cue either from US or Russia...

A veto power for Britain, India is a waste. Any country that does not/has not used its veto against all other major powers on some issue has no business to have one.

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Post by charvaka Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:51 am

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/india-tests-long-range-missile-reach-china-025428077.html
We keep seeing periodic bursts of activity on India's part to get that seat. The fundamental issues are: China's opposition, and who else gets in alongside India. On the second question, Japan and Germany both want in, and so does Brazil. India has partnered with all of them. The question is which African country gets in. South Africa and Nigeria are the most serious contenders, and that matter is not easily settled.

On the first question, the powers that matter are the current permanent members who have to refrain from vetoing a resolution giving India the permanent seat. Britain and France have already lobbied for a seat for India (along with Japan and Germany). Russia is also supportive of India, although they have their reservations about Germany. The US has decided to drop its apprehensions vis-a-vis India's admission, but they have their reservations about Brazil. But the key obstacle is China. So far China has couched its opposition in altruistic terms of wanting Africa better represented, and wanting to reduce Europe's representation -- which is out of line with the continent's dwindling significance on the world stage. The fact is, China does not want either India or Japan to have a permanent seat.
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Post by Kris Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:29 am

The fact is, China does not want either India or Japan to have a permanent seat.

>>>>Gotta hand it to these guys- a studied approach with a long term view of being the dominant asian superpower, preempting any possible potential advantage to any competitor.

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Post by charvaka Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:44 am

Kris wrote:The fact is, China does not want either India or Japan to have a permanent seat.

>>>>Gotta hand it to these guys- a studied approach with a long term view of being the dominant asian superpower, preempting any possible potential advantage to any competitor.
Yes, Chinese foreign policy works as if it were written by Machiavelli and Sun Tzu. But in the case of the UN Security Council, preventing India -- and Japan -- from a permanent seat only undermines the body. If 20 years from now India and Japan don't have a seat at that table while Europe has three seats, the UNSC will not have much credibility as a group of the world's most powerful countries. So if the UNSC wants to maintain relevance, it needs to change with the times. That's the reason China may actually play realpolitik if push comes to shove. If India and Japan can somehow get a resolution to the voting stage -- and gain the support of the other four permanent members and a majority of the 10 elected members, my suspicion is that China will not veto it. Basically China will stay on the sidelines and try to delay as long as possible, until India and Japan put enough effort into this to get a vote to the table.
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Post by charvaka Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:46 am

The other issue is of the veto. I can't imagine any more veto-wielding members being created. The next set of permanent members will very likely not have the veto.
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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:50 am

charvaka wrote:The other issue is of the veto. I can't imagine any more veto-wielding members being created. The next set of permanent members will very likely not have the veto.

Exactly my thought. China may not object to this while at the same time claiming credit for supporting the new members. It will be a 3 tiered UNSC: 5 permanent members with a veto, 5 permanent members with no veto, and 5 rotating members.

Something that will satisfy all while the real power still held by the old five.

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Post by doofus_maximus Thu Apr 19, 2012 11:09 am

Read the comments from the readers. These are the people who read a liberal website such as HuffPo. Imagine what readers of Faux News are saying. Depressing.
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Post by Hellsangel Thu Apr 19, 2012 11:15 am

doofus_maximus wrote:Read the comments from the readers. These are the people who read a liberal website such as HuffPo. Imagine what readers of Faux News are saying. Depressing.

Did you know that more progress for India-US relations was made under G.W. Bush than any other US President? And India was on the of the few foreign countries where he had a high rating.
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Post by doofus_maximus Thu Apr 19, 2012 11:21 am

that was due to economic reality during which India saw unprecedented growth and also due to 9/11 (if you are not with us, you are against us). Not because conservatives have a soft corner for India or for that matter any developing country.
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Post by charvaka Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:09 pm

doofus_maximus wrote:Read the comments from the readers. These are the people who read a liberal website such as HuffPo. Imagine what readers of Faux News are saying. Depressing.
Not surprising... people typically don't want other countries to acquire the capabilities that their own country has.
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Post by charvaka Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:10 pm

Hellsangel wrote:
doofus_maximus wrote:Read the comments from the readers. These are the people who read a liberal website such as HuffPo. Imagine what readers of Faux News are saying. Depressing.

Did you know that more progress for India-US relations was made under G.W. Bush than any other US President? And India was on the of the few foreign countries where he had a high rating.
After the 1998 nuclear tests and 9/11, it was a matter of time before India-US ties strengthened. If a GOP president was in power in 1998 and a Dem in 2001, pretty much similar progress would have been made.
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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:01 pm

Hellsangel wrote:
Did you know that more progress for India-US relations was made under G.W. Bush than any other US President? And India was on the of the few foreign countries where he had a high rating.

That is right. India-US relations always got complicated or at best stayed the same mainly due to democratic administration to pontificate, control, and preach to the Indian Govt. Other than Nixon, GOP presidents Reagan, Bush, Sr, Bush Jr improved and even galvanized India relations. The Dem prez, OTOH with the exception of Clinton (he could have had ulterior "womanly" interests), almost always regressed (including Carter admin). What is worse is a Dem Congress invariably sticks it to the India.

Unfortunately, for Indians Rep pres /admins are overwhelmigly advantageous - for those here or in India, although the GoP - in Desi minds - is a racist and bigotted party - notwithstanding the fact that Indians themselves as a group is one of the worst when it comes to those qualities.

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Post by charvaka Thu Apr 19, 2012 8:19 pm

US policy towards India does not differ that much based on which party's man is in the White House. Republican or Democrat, the first question is US national interest abroad. So reading party preferences into India-US relations may be confusing correlation for causation. There is a reason Clinton improved relations although India tested nuclear weapons and severely hampered his administration's nonproliferation agenda. India's emergence as a strategic rival to China and potential as a large, capable partner alongside Japan is the primary reason for the improving relations, not the ideological preferences of either party.
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Post by Kris Fri Apr 20, 2012 12:07 am

doofus_maximus wrote:that was due to economic reality during which India saw unprecedented growth and also due to 9/11 (if you are not with us, you are against us). Not because conservatives have a soft corner for India or for that matter any developing country.

>>>In the end, "America doesn't have friends, America has interests" as John Foster Dulles is supposed to have said. Probably true of most superpowers, past and present. The only problem is the shortsighted way the US has gone about it in the past, where expediency trumped long-term self interest. By contrast, look at the Chinese and the methodical way they are going about this superpower business now. India should look out for itself, just as the other countries do. It so happens its interests do align with the west now, what with China looming over the horizon (not to mention Pakistan, that basket case and eternal thorn in the side)

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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:13 am

[quote="Kris"]
doofus_maximus wrote:
>>>In the end, "America doesn't have friends, America has interests" as John Foster Dulles is supposed to have said. Probably true of most superpowers, past and present. The only problem is the shortsighted way the US has gone about it in the past, where expediency trumped long-term self interest. By contrast, look at the Chinese and the methodical way they are going about this superpower business now. India should look out for itself, just as the other countries do. It so happens its interests do align with the west now, what with China looming over the horizon (not to mention Pakistan, that basket case and eternal thorn in the side)

Hopefully, India will have friends in Burma, Thailand, Vietnam, taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

Did u notice how these encircle China and the Ruskies in the North. Looks like India is encircled by it distractors, according to PakiSatan, while it is China that is encircled.

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Post by charvaka Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:32 am

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Kris wrote:
>>>In the end, "America doesn't have friends, America has interests" as John Foster Dulles is supposed to have said. Probably true of most superpowers, past and present. The only problem is the shortsighted way the US has gone about it in the past, where expediency trumped long-term self interest. By contrast, look at the Chinese and the methodical way they are going about this superpower business now. India should look out for itself, just as the other countries do. It so happens its interests do align with the west now, what with China looming over the horizon (not to mention Pakistan, that basket case and eternal thorn in the side)

Hopefully, India will have friends in Burma, Thailand, Vietnam, taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

Did u notice how these encircle China and the Ruskies in the North. Looks like India is encircled by it distractors, according to PakiSatan, while it is China that is encircled.
Vietnam and Japan are the ones in that list that are getting closer to India. South Korea is ambivalent, given its preoccupation with North Korea. Also given its history sandwiched between two giants, it won't want to pick sides in a Japan-China tussle. As for Burma, the generals there are in the pockets of the Chinese, and the Chinese are building highways from China's Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal. Thanks to its isolationism, gone are the days when upper-middle-class and elite Burmese people had lots of contacts with India, going to university in India, etc. The current crop of leaders are more comfortable dealing with China than with India. Thailand has no big stakes in this game -- it has no border with China. Laos doesn't count. Philippines and Malaysia are other potential allies because of the slow-brewing Spratlys dispute.
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Post by Kris Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:39 am

[quote="Marathadi-Saamiyaar"]
Kris wrote:
doofus_maximus wrote:
>>>In the end, "America doesn't have friends, America has interests" as John Foster Dulles is supposed to have said. Probably true of most superpowers, past and present. The only problem is the shortsighted way the US has gone about it in the past, where expediency trumped long-term self interest. By contrast, look at the Chinese and the methodical way they are going about this superpower business now. India should look out for itself, just as the other countries do. It so happens its interests do align with the west now, what with China looming over the horizon (not to mention Pakistan, that basket case and eternal thorn in the side)

Hopefully, India will have friends in Burma, Thailand, Vietnam, taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

Did u notice how these encircle China and the Ruskies in the North. Looks like India is encircled by it distractors, according to PakiSatan, while it is China that is encircled.

>>>>India is late to the party and in terms of scale, China is the big cheese. However, good to see India is not sitting by idly. Yes, this latest development does give India leverage (to wit, see Beijing's reaction). India also seems to see that it is part of the global power game, with the US looking for allies (of course for its own reasons). This is a hell of an evolution from the Non Aligned Movement days. I agree with you there will be dialogue with Burma, South Korea, Japan et al. Rest assured our cross border brethren must be bursting a blood vessel or two over this.

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Post by Kris Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:45 am

charvaka wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Kris wrote:
>>>In the end, "America doesn't have friends, America has interests" as John Foster Dulles is supposed to have said. Probably true of most superpowers, past and present. The only problem is the shortsighted way the US has gone about it in the past, where expediency trumped long-term self interest. By contrast, look at the Chinese and the methodical way they are going about this superpower business now. India should look out for itself, just as the other countries do. It so happens its interests do align with the west now, what with China looming over the horizon (not to mention Pakistan, that basket case and eternal thorn in the side)

Hopefully, India will have friends in Burma, Thailand, Vietnam, taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

Did u notice how these encircle China and the Ruskies in the North. Looks like India is encircled by it distractors, according to PakiSatan, while it is China that is encircled.
Vietnam and Japan are the ones in that list that are getting closer to India. South Korea is ambivalent, given its preoccupation with North Korea. Also given its history sandwiched between two giants, it won't want to pick sides in a Japan-China tussle. As for Burma, the generals there are in the pockets of the Chinese, and the Chinese are building highways from China's Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal. Thanks to its isolationism, gone are the days when upper-middle-class and elite Burmese people had lots of contacts with India, going to university in India, etc. The current crop of leaders are more comfortable dealing with China than with India. Thailand has no big stakes in this game -- it has no border with China. Laos doesn't count. Philippines and Malaysia are other potential allies because of the slow-brewing Spratlys dispute.

>>>> I could be wrong, but I think Burma and S.Korea will be nudged by the US into the India camp. This is going to be about land grab (figuratively speaking).

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Post by charvaka Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:53 am

Kris wrote:I could be wrong, but I think Burma and S.Korea will be nudged by the US into the India camp. This is going to be about land grab (figuratively speaking).
They are certainly trying with Burma, and the signs are encouraging. But I am concerned that there will be another coup that displaces the current leader -- who is talking to the Americans and has made some tentative moves toward at least a show of democracy. The Chinese would certainly encourage such a coup. You are right on South Korea -- the US has tremendous leverage as the country depends on the US troops for its protection. Actually South Korea can't avoid some kind of mild cold war with China over the next few years... the north has to collapse in a decade or two if not sooner, and when that happens, clearly the south gets to take it over. China will see that as a strategic weakening of its position. If the north collapses, US troops could well be deployed on its borders. Not on some remote western border either, but a few hundred miles from Beijing. So even as the south tries to manage the coming collapse of the north, China will continue trying to prop up that regime. The victims in this big game are of course the North Korean people who die of famine.
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Post by Kris Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:04 am

charvaka wrote:
Kris wrote:I could be wrong, but I think Burma and S.Korea will be nudged by the US into the India camp. This is going to be about land grab (figuratively speaking).
They are certainly trying with Burma, and the signs are encouraging. But I am concerned that there will be another coup that displaces the current leader -- who is talking to the Americans and has made some tentative moves toward at least a show of democracy. The Chinese would certainly encourage such a coup. You are right on South Korea -- the US has tremendous leverage as the country depends on the US troops for its protection. Actually South Korea can't avoid some kind of mild cold war with China over the next few years... the north has to collapse in a decade or two if not sooner, and when that happens, clearly the south gets to take it over. China will see that as a strategic weakening of its position. If the north collapses, US troops could well be deployed on its borders. Not on some remote western border either, but a few hundred miles from Beijing. So even as the south tries to manage the coming collapse of the north, China will continue trying to prop up that regime. The victims in this big game are of course the North Korean people who die of famine.

>>>Agree Burma is anybody's bet right now (incidentally, first hand reports from personal friends who were there recently suggest the country is not as much as a basket case as the media makes them out to be- but politically, it is precarious still). In my previous post, I should have said for many of these countries it is going to a case of 'geography is history' and hence, my land grab comment. Anyway, in all these theaters, China is also going to play the economic game, If they are doing it in the west indies and africa, seems only axiomatic for southeast asia.

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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Apr 21, 2012 2:23 am

[quote="Kris"]
charvaka wrote:
>>>Agree Burma is anybody's bet right now (incidentally, first hand reports from personal friends who were there recently suggest the country is not as much as a basket case as the media makes them out to be- but politically, it is precarious still). In my previous post, I should have said for many of these countries it is going to a case of 'geography is history' and hence, my land grab comment. Anyway, in all these theaters, China is also going to play the economic game, If they are doing it in the west indies and africa, seems only axiomatic for southeast asia.

In the end Burma will be neutral with a wink at India...why ? bcz of its need for commercial, economic, and geographical ties to the ASEAN. Burma has more to gain from ASEAN than China, which is unanimously detested by the ASEAN countries. Even Burma knows that China cannot be trusted and seeks China's friendship only bcz of a lack of relation with the rest of the world. As Burma gets closer to India and ASEAN (and by extension, US, Japan, and S.Korea), it has no need for China (what with the Chinkus drying up the Irrawady). If Brumese military junta insisted on relying on the Chinkus, they will end up as just another basketcase - like PakiSatan and N.Korea.

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Post by Kris Sat Apr 21, 2012 2:46 am

[quote="Marathadi-Saamiyaar"]
Kris wrote:
charvaka wrote:
>>>Agree Burma is anybody's bet right now (incidentally, first hand reports from personal friends who were there recently suggest the country is not as much as a basket case as the media makes them out to be- but politically, it is precarious still). In my previous post, I should have said for many of these countries it is going to a case of 'geography is history' and hence, my land grab comment. Anyway, in all these theaters, China is also going to play the economic game, If they are doing it in the west indies and africa, seems only axiomatic for southeast asia.

In the end Burma will be neutral with a wink at India...why ? bcz of its need for commercial, economic, and geographical ties to the ASEAN. Burma has more to gain from ASEAN than China, which is unanimously detested by the ASEAN countries. Even Burma knows that China cannot be trusted and seeks China's friendship only bcz of a lack of relation with the rest of the world. As Burma gets closer to India and ASEAN (and by extension, US, Japan, and S.Korea), it has no need for China (what with the Chinkus drying up the Irrawady). If Brumese military junta insisted on relying on the Chinkus, they will end up as just another basketcase - like PakiSatan and N.Korea.

>>> Charvaka makes a good point in one of the above posts. A lot depends on whether there is a coup in Yangon or not in the near future. The US overtures are to stabilize the current regime. Back to the original issue of India vis-a-vis China, the recent comments by China (partnership relationship etc) ,may not be a bad scenario for india to play along with, long as there is no Neville Chamberlain-esque gullibility. In other words, no buying into wholesale hindi-chini bhai BS, but rather a holding out of the hand tantalizingly to the two suitors to benefit from both. I wouldn't be surprised if this is how this game unfolds. Indians (I think) have wised up, but time will tell.

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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Apr 21, 2012 12:29 pm

[quote="Marathadi-Saamiyaar"]
Kris wrote:
charvaka wrote:
>>>Agree Burma is anybody's bet right now (incidentally, first hand reports from personal friends who were there recently suggest the country is not as much as a basket case as the media makes them out to be- but politically, it is precarious still). In my previous post, I should have said for many of these countries it is going to a case of 'geography is history' and hence, my land grab comment. Anyway, in all these theaters, China is also going to play the economic game, If they are doing it in the west indies and africa, seems only axiomatic for southeast asia.

In the end Burma will be neutral with a wink at India...why ? bcz of its need for commercial, economic, and geographical ties to the ASEAN. Burma has more to gain from ASEAN than China, which is unanimously detested by the ASEAN countries. Even Burma knows that China cannot be trusted and seeks China's friendship only bcz of a lack of relation with the rest of the world. As Burma gets closer to India and ASEAN (and by extension, US, Japan, and S.Korea), it has no need for China (what with the Chinkus drying up the Irrawady). If Brumese military junta insisted on relying on the Chinkus, they will end up as just another basketcase - like PakiSatan and N.Korea.

..Am I right...or am I rite?...

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