The state of the campaign

by Idéfix Thu Jul 05, 2012 9:44 pm

It is early days in the presidential campaign, and each side is trying to define the other side on their own terms. After some doom and gloom in the Obama camp, there is again hope. Conservatives who were beginning to rally behind Romney now start bickering again, with Rupert Murdoch leading the pack. We can expect many more cycles of ups and downs in both campaigns before Election Day, but four months out it is beginning to look good for Obama.

RealClearPolitics lets you mess with the electoral college math to figure out what is going to happen. Here is my take on the map.

The state of the campaign Pres_r10

Romney will win much of the conservative heartland without contest: AK, ID, MT, WY, TX, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, LA, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, NC, SC, WV. He is also very likely to win traditionally conservative states that Obama won in 2008: IN, NC, MO, IA, and AZ (which McCain won as the home state boy). Obama is certain to pick up the Democratic bastions on the two coasts and his home state of IL. NH is in play because of Romney's base there. In the Midwest, I think Obama clearly benefits from the auto-bailout in MI and OH, where Romney has an uphill battle. PA was always difficult for Obama -- even in 2008 -- and it will be close this time as well, but all said it leans towards Obama. MN and NM are both looking pretty good for Obama as well, particularly the latter because of the immigration trick. This race then boils down to a handful of states: Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida. Obama needs to win a couple of those, while Romney needs to win most of those, in order to secure the White House. In NV and CO, Obama has the Latino vote to bank on. Changing demographics may also help him in VA. Romney needs to move to the center on immigration real soon, or he risks losing his election.

by truthbetold Thu Jul 05, 2012 11:34 pm

That map seem to reflect current status very well. Iowa was a little bit of a surprise.
Obama needs to consolidate mi and pa. If ohio falos easily he could be ujbeatable. While latino vote will help obama romney is counting on economic troubles. If EU can hold on to min growth obama could pull this off. A conservative acquaintace with some connections repub operatives told me that they are now confident that romney will win with good electoral college lead.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Fri Jul 06, 2012 1:29 am

panini press wrote:It is early days in the presidential campaign, and each side is trying to define the other side on their own terms. After some doom and gloom in the Obama camp, there is again hope. Conservatives who were beginning to rally behind Romney now start bickering again, with Rupert Murdoch leading the pack. We can expect many more cycles of ups and downs in both campaigns before Election Day, but four months out it is beginning to look good for Obama.

RealClearPolitics lets you mess with the electoral college math to figure out what is going to happen. Here is my take on the map.

Romney will win much of the conservative heartland without contest: AK, ID, MT, WY, TX, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, LA, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, NC, SC, WV. He is also very likely to win traditionally conservative states that Obama won in 2008: IN, NC, MO, IA, and AZ (which McCain won as the home state boy). Obama is certain to pick up the Democratic bastions on the two coasts and his home state of IL. NH is in play because of Romney's base there. In the Midwest, I think Obama clearly benefits from the auto-bailout in MI and OH, where Romney has an uphill battle. PA was always difficult for Obama -- even in 2008 -- and it will be close this time as well, but all said it leans towards Obama. MN and NM are both looking pretty good for Obama as well, particularly the latter because of the immigration trick. This race then boils down to a handful of states: Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida. Obama needs to win a couple of those, while Romney needs to win most of those, in order to secure the White House. In NV and CO, Obama has the Latino vote to bank on. Changing demographics may also help him in VA. Romney needs to move to the center on immigration real soon, or he risks losing his election.

Real campaign starts after the conventions. The presidential campaigns are known to screw up many a campaigns by silliest of silly mistakes - like Big Bush looking at his wrist watch, Dukakis stumped by the first question, etc.

by nevada Fri Jul 06, 2012 2:20 am

I don't feel enthused to vote for either candidate. Is Ron Paul contesting?

by Kris Fri Jul 06, 2012 2:27 am

nevada wrote:I don't feel enthused to vote for either candidate. Is Ron Paul contesting?....

>>>Me neither.

by Maria S Fri Jul 06, 2012 8:44 am

Carvaka,

I like to read your political commentaries (US Politics), esp- when important news stories unfold. Think we have some similar leanings..but, we do have differing views as well.

To me politics is like sports..as game day gets close..can't help the excitement (inspite of all the money, corruption and powerful interest groups, which are sickening at times).

*In the end, the election will be close.

*Kind of interested in the Romney VP choice, think it will be a "safe"-man choice, but, if I am wrong..and it's a woman..Nikki, Michelle, Condi..or someone not so well known, that will make it fun!

*Ann Romney is a character..like a good wife who stands next to her husband, points and constantly promotes her really gorgeous husband.."he is so cool, so lovey dovey, wonderful if you all can only see it etc:D "..for a potential first lady..her words are inartful at times..but, she is fiesty and tries too hard, even says..'they want to kill him- destroy him'! Not that it's wrong or something new for any politician's wife..but, there is something about it..which is a little different- makes him look weaker and not stronger..like Hillary, Nancy, Michelle..even Laura usually made it seem.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/05/ann-romney-obama-campaign-kill-mitt-romney_n_1650696.html

*Of course there are always the unknowns too.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Fri Jul 06, 2012 10:44 am

Kris wrote:
nevada wrote:I don't feel enthused to vote for either candidate. Is Ron Paul contesting?....

>>>Me neither.

[i]

Ahhhhh... I was sure you were going to be a sign-in candidate and I was eagerly waiting to vote for you.

by Maria S Fri Jul 06, 2012 10:47 am

Hello Saamiyar!

Nalamaa? Don't see you much around..hope you are having a good summer. tc.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:07 am

Maria S wrote:Hello Saamiyar!

Nalamaa? Don't see you much around..hope you are having a good summer. tc.

Regulaar..... too busy trying to put food on the table. Just, wondering if I should go into Major depression or just a plain "Paranoid Schizo" mode.

by Kris Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:15 am

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Kris wrote:
nevada wrote:I don't feel enthused to vote for either candidate. Is Ron Paul contesting?....

>>>Me neither.
[i]

Ahhhhh... I was sure you were going to be a sign-in candidate and I was eagerly waiting to vote for you.

>>>WTH- I was going to write you in! An idea= VP could be VP- saar Smile

by truthbetold Fri Jul 06, 2012 12:28 pm

Maria
why all the love only to carvaka? I know propagandhi impy and me cannot be part of obama love fest but how can you ignore other noble souls such as kris max and uppili.

by Maria S Fri Jul 06, 2012 2:21 pm

truthbetold wrote:Maria
why all the love only to carvaka? I know propagandhi impy and me cannot be part of obama love fest but how can you ignore other noble souls such as kris max and uppili.

TBT,

How refreshing and brave of you..to be so direct and mention that taboo word "love" in this forum! And you figured it out:) No need to wonder..I'll tell you..

Yes, when it comes to political discussions..there is some extra love for Carvaka, can't deny it!

Let's look at your list..

*You can certainly get some love! In 2008..if my memory is good, you used to write some interesting political commentaries..esp. during the primaries- between Hillary and Barack in your "TBT" style..I used to chuckle when I read them!

*DUT and Impedimenta don't have to like Pres. Obama..they can have some love:) I am just thankful that DUT is nice enough not to start creating images (he does in such vivid ways- DUT style!) when I praise anyone:)

I don't think the others are into love fests..One may puke that it's all fake, one may like it..and not show it, one may not care one way or the other!

by Hellsangel Fri Jul 06, 2012 2:53 pm

by Maria S Fri Jul 06, 2012 3:34 pm

Hmm...I wonder who you are really pulling for Angel? Smile

It's all good. Do I get an invitation for a Romney lovefest?

by Hellsangel Fri Jul 06, 2012 3:44 pm

Maria S wrote:

It's all good. Do I get an invitation for a Romney lovefest?

Sure. Donate here:
https://www.mittromney.com/donate/thank-you/shop2

by Maria S Fri Jul 06, 2012 3:54 pm

What? For my valuable contribution, I can't even meet the Presidential nominee, his wife..not even his nice supporters?

This is a stufffest..it's no lovefest! Well, if I badly want the bumper sticker..will think about it.

Thanks a lot!

by truthbetold Fri Jul 06, 2012 4:01 pm

Maria
While june employment data is pathetic and unhelpful to obama and economy it.is not the end of the world for obama. It was expected and bad news will continue toflow through july during wall streets quarterly reports. Europe is sick and will remain sick for a while. Weak usa economy is the most robust in a depressing world economy.
Obama still has chance but odds and money are stacking up against him. Impatient american voter may not give obama another chance if bad news continues. It may not be obamas fault but country may feel like trying something new.

by Maria S Fri Jul 06, 2012 4:26 pm

truthbetold wrote:Maria
While june employment data is pathetic and unhelpful to obama and economy it.is not the end of the world for obama. It was expected and bad news will continue toflow through july during wall streets quarterly reports. Europe is sick and will remain sick for a while. Weak usa economy is the most robust in a depressing world economy.
Obama still has chance but odds and money are stacking up against him. Impatient american voter may not give obama another chance if bad news continues. It may not be obamas fault but country may feel like trying something new.

TBT,

I agree that the economy and bad employment numbers are not going to dramatically change in the next four months. Once the VP pick is made and the debates are over (and if there are no major unexpected scandals/international events)..perhaps the predictions will be more accurate.

Being realistic, it's going to be a close election..will wait to make my predictions as well.

by truthbetold Fri Jul 06, 2012 4:45 pm

If obama is still in a winnable position in october he should be happy. I agree that numbers will not get any better but the key is steady and slow progress. Not slow decline.

No need to predict now. An early loss of fight in presidential race will crush congress dems. That is not good for the country.

by Idéfix Fri Jul 06, 2012 4:54 pm

Guess who said the following words in a press conference...

“I came in and the jobs had been just falling, like off a cliff. I came in and they kept falling for 11 months and then we turned around and we’re coming back. And that’s progress. And if you’re going to suggest to me that somehow the day I got elected – somehow jobs should immediately turn around, why that would be silly."

"It takes a while to get things turned around. We were in a recession, we were losing jobs every months, we’ve turned around. We want to keep that going to the extent we can.”

by nevada Fri Jul 06, 2012 5:14 pm

panini press wrote:Guess who said the following words in a press conference...

“I came in and the jobs had been just falling, like off a cliff. I came in and they kept falling for 11 months and then we turned around and we’re coming back. And that’s progress. And if you’re going to suggest to me that somehow the day I got elected – somehow jobs should immediately turn around, why that would be silly."

"It takes a while to get things turned around. We were in a recession, we were losing jobs every months, we’ve turned around. We want to keep that going to the extent we can.”

Bush.

by Idéfix Fri Jul 06, 2012 5:25 pm

nevada wrote:
panini press wrote:Guess who said the following words in a press conference...

“I came in and the jobs had been just falling, like off a cliff. I came in and they kept falling for 11 months and then we turned around and we’re coming back. And that’s progress. And if you’re going to suggest to me that somehow the day I got elected – somehow jobs should immediately turn around, why that would be silly."

"It takes a while to get things turned around. We were in a recession, we were losing jobs every months, we’ve turned around. We want to keep that going to the extent we can.”

Bush.

Good guess, but no.

by nevada Fri Jul 06, 2012 5:54 pm

panini press wrote:
nevada wrote:
panini press wrote:Guess who said the following words in a press conference...

“I came in and the jobs had been just falling, like off a cliff. I came in and they kept falling for 11 months and then we turned around and we’re coming back. And that’s progress. And if you’re going to suggest to me that somehow the day I got elected – somehow jobs should immediately turn around, why that would be silly."

"It takes a while to get things turned around. We were in a recession, we were losing jobs every months, we’ve turned around. We want to keep that going to the extent we can.”

Bush.
Good guess, but no.

Clinton?

by Idéfix Fri Jul 06, 2012 6:51 pm

No. Romney said those words in 2006 defending his record as governor. The recession he refers to is the minor one after 9/11. It is "silly" to expect quick recovery from a minor recession like that, but for a Great Recession, the lack of overnight recovery is Obama's fault.

by Idéfix Fri Jul 06, 2012 7:01 pm

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/american-bridge-hits-mitts-jobs-rhetoric-128145.html

by truthbetold Fri Jul 06, 2012 9:40 pm

panini press wrote:No. Romney said those words in 2006 defending his record as governor. The recession he refers to is the minor one after 9/11. It is "silly" to expect quick recovery from a minor recession lik e that, but for a Great Recession, the lack of overnight recovery is Obama's fault.

While this line of defence warms weary dems the question is are voters buying it? Can obama sell the idea of slow but steady progress instead of economic doldrums. Every passing day few more voters are lost to jobsgloom. Obama needs real breaks i.e. greek election supreme court decision. Now he needs to sell growth for next four years. Natural gas infrastructure development to bend energy curve health care cost control environmental technology benefits to ordinary citizens etc could provide wind behind his back. Education immigration and community peace could draw more enthusiastic support.

by Idéfix Fri Jul 06, 2012 10:02 pm

truthbetold wrote:
panini press wrote:No. Romney said those words in 2006 defending his record as governor. The recession he refers to is the minor one after 9/11. It is "silly" to expect quick recovery from a minor recession lik e that, but for a Great Recession, the lack of overnight recovery is Obama's fault.

While this line of defence warms weary dems the question is are voters buying it? Can obama sell the idea of slow but steady progress instead of economic doldrums. Every passing day few more voters are lost to jobsgloom. Obama needs real breaks i.e. greek election supreme court decision. Now he needs to sell growth for next four years. Natural gas infrastructure development to bend energy curve health care cost control environmental technology benefits to ordinary citizens etc could provide wind behind his back. Education immigration and community peace could draw more enthusiastic support.

I agree. I just find the whole Romney video where he makes excuses for his performance as governor very funny, when he constantly blames Obama for the current job market. I am sure Obama's supporters will use that video in ads. The problem for Romney is that he has a serious authenticity gap. In the past he was an eloquent defender of healthcare mandates and slow recoveries. Now he is a fervent opponent of both. He used to be for gay rights and abortion rights, and he isn't any more. Either he raised taxes in MA, or Obama did not raise taxes at the federal level. If the Obama team goes after these contradictions in a smart manner, Romney will find it difficult to keep all those things straight with ordinary voters.

by truthbetold Fri Jul 06, 2012 10:49 pm

All the weaknesses of romney makes him a tolerable middle of the road guy. Those positions are problems for his conservative base but those may play better among independents. Cons are likely to hold their noses and vote for mitt. Indies will float with their personal perception of economy.
But obama is not just fighting romney. Romney has a role this election but obama is defending a difficult complex idea in the minds of americans. If he can convince his direction is the one to follow.

by Idéfix Fri Jul 06, 2012 10:52 pm

True, in the end it will all boil down to unemployment as of Labor Day and beyond. Barring major mistakes on either side -- which I don't expect given both candidates' well-deserved reputation for message discipline.

by Idéfix Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:09 pm

It is a month since I started this thread, so here is an update.

Starting off from the RCP map, here is my take on the map as it looks now.

The state of the campaign Map10

Obama's poll numbers have improved since this time a month ago. He is polling with greater strength in the key swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia. We still have three months to go before election day, but if Obama can hold the leads he has in these states, he will be really difficult to beat for Romney. Obama needs turn one of Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia or Florida blue in this map to win, while Romney needs to win all of them in order to get across the finish line.

by Hellsangel Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:14 pm

Yay for Nobama!

by Idéfix Sat Sep 08, 2012 11:09 am

The conventions are now finished, and we have exactly two months to go before we know who won this election. Here is the latest view based on RCP polling averages in each state.

The state of the campaign Map11

In terms of electoral college votes, not much has changed in the last month. Romney has made some progress in eroding Obama's leads in the swing states. But Obama still holds meaningful leads in NM, PA and NH, and he holds slimmer leads in WI, MI, NV and CO which will also likely vote for him in November. He needs to turn one of the toss up states -- VA, NC, IA, OH, or FL -- blue in order to win the election.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Sep 08, 2012 11:23 am

The morning of election day, people will get jitters and go with the known devil against an uncertain and an iffy angel. That is just plain human psychology, and that is how we decide on any issue when there is no clear cut, hands down liking to an alternative.

Obama will win. Even if Koch and Murdoch pour their millions and billions.

P.S. Hope the congress passes a bill to tax 90% of earnings of those privately held-companies and slap an estate tax of 95% on all those with more than $1 billion.

by Hellsangel Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:13 pm

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:24 pm

Hellsangel wrote:

All fine and dandy... this economy was burried by 8 years of Bush years (of looting the poor to enrich the rich), and people will realize that.

The reason for the very likely Obama win is not Obama, but Romney. Romney is not Reagan, and even he won only by a small margin against a non-contesting, "failed" carter. Such is the power of presidential incumbency. Romney - with all his bags of controversies and his image as a representative of the rich for the rich and by the Rich - is not, repeat not, a heart throb of the people. His mormonism, Bain capital, Dog dragging, tax trickery, lack of spelling knowledge for the word "middle class" will come back to haunt him.

hey...the debates have not even started and expect Obama to whip Romney left, right, center, middle, and the back.

by Hellsangel Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:27 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Romney is not Reagan, and even he won only by a small margin against a non-contesting, "failed" carter.

Really? How old are you, Your Holiness? 489 to 49 electoral votes.

by MaxEntropy_Man Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:21 pm

there was the big bang (or the deluge) on jan 19, 2009. the next day the world came into being, then came the deficit, the noah's ark, and the obama adminstration. the GOP came into being in 2010 to unseat obama seeing as how he is so ineffective. that's their story and they're sticking to it.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:15 pm

Hellsangel wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Romney is not Reagan, and even he won only by a small margin against a non-contesting, "failed" carter.

Really? How old are you, Your Holiness? 489 to 49 electoral votes.

This should give some background on Carter-reagan 1980 election. It is not a run away as the electoral votes indicate. The % vote difference was very very close. And this against a non-campaigning carter.

If one goes by a electoral vote - there are numerous interesting stories, including horse dealings in 1870-1890 elections. Of course, who could forget Sandra Day O conner stealing the 2000 elections for Bush, Jr.

Romney is not even McCain...Other than the Keating 5 scandal (which was totally forgotten) no one could fault McCain. Romney OTOH has already piled a mile-high financial misdealings in his name.

by Idéfix Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:10 pm

Here is a look at the electoral vote distribution based on the latest poll averages from RealClearPolitics. I built this using the Create Your Own Map feature of RCP and their own poll averages.

The state of the campaign Map13

At this point in the race, just a handful of states are in contention; the rest are either solid Romney or solid Obama. Michigan may move solid blue soon, but there are still some outside groups spending money on Romney's behalf there. Among the states in contention, those with a polling average advantage of 2% or more for either candidate are shown as leaning towards that candidate. States where the polling average difference is less than 2% are shown as toss-ups. By this measure, it is clear that Obama is ahead. The biggest areas of concern for Team Romney ought to be Ohio and Virginia, both large states where Obama is ahead by over 4%. If they can't win at least one of those states, there is no way for them to win the election.

It looks like Romney's recent missteps have done some damage to his poll numbers. Earlier this week, it seemed like Obama's convention bump was disappearing from the polls, and the race was heading back into too-close-to-call territory. But over the last few days, Romney's number has been falling while Obama's number has held steady or has fallen a little less than Romney's. On average, Obama had 48.7% support on Sep 14, while he now has 48.3%. Romney had 45.6% and now has 44.6% support. As a result, the gap is now the highest it has been since the conventions.

by MaxEntropy_Man Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:25 pm

obama's greatest danger on election day barring terrible debate performances, unexpected bimbo eruptions, or other unpleasant surprises is the complacency of his base.

by Idéfix Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:32 pm

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:obama's greatest danger on election day barring terrible debate performances, unexpected bimbo eruptions, or other unpleasant surprises is the complacency of his base.

He has spent a lot of money on the ground game, investing early on in all swing states. So that should help out. The thing I am worried about is the concerted voter suppression tactics that the GOP has employed in swing states like OH and FL. If the voter suppression works, even states like PA begin to enter the game.

by truthbetold Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:50 pm

Romney realistic chance, barring a collapse obama cam paign, lies in winning all three toss ups for 50, then capture va, io, and co taking him to 269. I think that would give him a tie and victory through congress. Nh would give him whitehiuse without any doubt.

Obama needs to hold ohio, mi, and wi and go after va. If there is a close race va may be the turning point.

Obama should stay aggressive during debates and not give romney a chance to land punches. Both explaining their side of story would still keep obama ahead. Romney would like to give the impression of ready for presidency. Once the debates are over no more major events.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:56 pm

truthbetold wrote:Romney realistic chance, barring a collapse obama cam paign, lies in winning all three toss ups for 50, then capture va, io, and co taking him to 269. I think that would give him a tie and victory through congress. Nh would give him whitehiuse without any doubt.

Obama needs to hold ohio, mi, and wi and go after va. If there is a close race va may be the turning point.

Obama should stay aggressive during debates and not give romney a chance to land punches. Both explaining their side of story would still keep obama ahead. Romney would like to give the impression of ready for presidency. Once the debates are over no more major events.

There is a better chance for all of us to move to Rashmunullah Jehadi's website.

by Idéfix Sun Oct 07, 2012 4:08 pm

It is now just a month from the election, and the results of the first debate are reflected in the polling. Romney has closed the gap in national polling to a great extent, and he has also improved his position in some swing states. Here is my take on the current map. I am showing "solid" wins when a candidate has an RCP average lead of 10% or more, "likely" wins when a candidate has an average lead of 5% or more, and "leaning" when a candidate has 2% or more average lead. The rest are toss-ups.

The state of the campaign Map14

Obama is still holding on to sizable leads in enough states to get him across the finish line. Ohio is key firewall -- if Romney can chip away at his lead there to make it competitive, he can still turn this thing around. Without Ohio, he will need to take Wisconsin, where Obama's lead averages 6.6% -- a tougher proposition. Perhaps if native son Ryan has a comprehensive debate win over Biden, like Romney did over Obama, Wisconsin may come back into play. In this map, Romney's path to victory is to pick up all toss-ups and flip a couple of light blue states. Obama needs to continue working on Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin. If he keeps those, he will keep his job.

by truthbetold Sun Oct 07, 2012 4:47 pm

Pp,
It will take polls early next week to gauge the full impact of debate and its aftermath. Also i will reclassify 2% lead as toss up as that is within statistical error. That puts ohio, iowa, nv in toss up. Obama cannot lose ohio as that indicates voter shift in thinking. The chances are he will lose lot of other states along with ohio.
In my opinion Romney has not sealed the deal but he has obama on the ropes. It may take some time for polls to catch up. Obama needs a momemtum shifter.

by Kris Sun Oct 07, 2012 5:37 pm

truthbetold wrote:Pp,
It will take polls early next week to gauge the full impact of debate and its aftermath. Also i will reclassify 2% lead as toss up as that is within statistical error. That puts ohio, iowa, nv in toss up. Obama cannot lose ohio as that indicates voter shift in thinking. The chances are he will lose lot of other states along with ohio.
In my opinion Romney has not sealed the deal but he has obama on the ropes. It may take some time for polls to catch up. Obama needs a momemtum shifter.

>>>Next time around, I think Obama will hit back on Romney's utterances with counterstats and bring up Romney's own previous positions. I think Obama may have been preoccupied with something else last time. I thought about that the next morning. Wonder if there is something happening behind the scenes with respect to syria. Of course, if Obama has another off-day the next time around, that will be a serious setback. Stats and fact-checking are great, but are substantially trumped on how the candidate comes across on TV, something you would know a tactician like Obama should well know.

by truthbetold Mon Oct 08, 2012 6:37 am

Kris and pp,
my sense is that you are underestimating the impact of disastrous obama debate performance. It was a game changer. Romney is in the driver seat. Lies are not a disqualification in politics. Incompetence and lack of engagement are. Obama should hit a home run to come back.

by southindian Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:46 am

[quote="Marathadi-Saamiyaar"]

Hellsangel wrote:

hey...the debates have not even started and expect Obama to whip Romney left, right, center, middle, and the back.

What happened? Obama didn't get the memo?

by Kris Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:56 am

truthbetold wrote:Kris and pp,
my sense is that you are underestimating the impact of disastrous obama debate performance. It was a game changer. Romney is in the driver seat. Lies are not a disqualification in politics. Incompetence and lack of engagement are. Obama should hit a home run to come back.

>>>> Whatever it is, the next debates are going to be fun to watch. Romney will be fighting to retain the momentum, Obama fighting back to make up for his last performance.

by Idéfix Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:58 am

truthbetold wrote:Kris and pp,
my sense is that you are underestimating the impact of disastrous obama debate performance. It was a game changer. Romney is in the driver seat. Lies are not a disqualification in politics. Incompetence and lack of engagement are. Obama should hit a home run to come back.

Yeah, it does look like the debate was a game changer. Gallup now has the poll tied. Romney has closed the big gap that was threatening his campaign a week ago. For the first time since the conventions, I am actually worried that we may get a President Romney. This election is still Obama's to lose, but Romney is within striking distance.

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