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Marathadi-Saamiyaar
goodcitizn
Hellsangel
truthbetold
Captain Bhankas
Merlot Daruwala
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Blood bath in Indian markets
by Merlot Daruwala Mon Aug 19, 2013 4:52 am
I thought it would bounce back after the massive 770 point fall on Friday, but no! Another 400 + points down today with another hour of trading left...
Bought some ICICI Bk shares (down 5% today). Hope it pays off in the long run.
Bought some ICICI Bk shares (down 5% today). Hope it pays off in the long run.
Merlot Daruwala- Posts : 5005
Join date : 2011-04-29
Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Captain Bhankas Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:04 am
the market has shut chidambaram up after he prescribed what it should do. the people have already shut him up by continuing to buy gold.
Captain Bhankas- Posts : 676
Join date : 2013-02-05
Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Captain Bhankas Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:44 am
i think the following financial instrument is the only one that will give me good returns in three months...
... so that i become as wealthy as this gent.
... so that i become as wealthy as this gent.
Captain Bhankas- Posts : 676
Join date : 2013-02-05
Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by truthbetold Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:18 am
Onions bringing tears to rahul's eyes.
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Merlot Daruwala Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:43 am
Captain Bhankas wrote:i think the following financial instrument is the only one that will give me good returns in three months...
... so that i become as wealthy as this gent.
Sadly, the farmers don't seem to have benefited from the pop at all. The wholesalers benefited some but biggest beneficiaries have apparently been the retailers.
Merlot Daruwala- Posts : 5005
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Hellsangel Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:46 am
What is causing the latest drop?
Hellsangel- Posts : 14721
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Merlot Daruwala Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:05 am
1. Capital controls
2. Rupee's slide
3. Loss of faith in the Govt's ability to stop #2
4. Global cues on Fed's tapering off of liquidity (most mkts are in the red - Jakarta index closed 5.6% lower
2. Rupee's slide
3. Loss of faith in the Govt's ability to stop #2
4. Global cues on Fed's tapering off of liquidity (most mkts are in the red - Jakarta index closed 5.6% lower
Merlot Daruwala- Posts : 5005
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by goodcitizn Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:20 am
Between January and July of this year, the federal govt has hiked import duty on gold 3 times from 4% to 10% as if that will reduce importation when the market is demanding more gold as a hedge against inflation, falling stock market and continuing devaluation of the rupee.
It's laughable if this is the strategy to reduce the current account deficit. With the value of coal imported being even higher than gold and with India having significant coal reserves, why can't the government speed up coal mining, removing tedious regulations and providing financial incentives for environmentally safe mining methods? If coal is vital to power generation in India, it's all the more reason to focus on this than band aid strategies with gold.
It's laughable if this is the strategy to reduce the current account deficit. With the value of coal imported being even higher than gold and with India having significant coal reserves, why can't the government speed up coal mining, removing tedious regulations and providing financial incentives for environmentally safe mining methods? If coal is vital to power generation in India, it's all the more reason to focus on this than band aid strategies with gold.
Last edited by goodcitizn on Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:26 am; edited 1 time in total
goodcitizn- Posts : 3263
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Merlot Daruwala Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:25 am
1. Miscellaneous environmentalists breastbeating about loss of invaluable forest cover, biodiversity, rarest of rare species etcgoodcitizn wrote:Between January and July of this year, the federal govt has hiked import duty 3 times from 4% to 10% as if that will reduce importation when the market is demanding more gold as a hedge against inflation, falling stock market and continuing devaluation of the rupee.
It's laughable if this is the strategy to reduce the current account deficit. With the value of coal imported being even higher than gold and with India having significant coal reserves, why can't the government speed up coal mining, removing tedious regulations and providing financial incentives for environmentally safe mining methods? If coal is vital to power generation in India, it's all the more reason to focus on this than band aid strategies with gold (or, issuing oil bonds, agriculture bonds or food bonds as accounting gimmicks to hide the problem).
2. Miscellaneous NGOs breastbeating about loss of tribal lands, traditional way of life, sacred mountains etc
3. A waffling, spineless government pulled in every which direction, reluctant to antagonize any group of votes..er..people
4. 3-word summary: Essence of Democracy. EOD.
Merlot Daruwala- Posts : 5005
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by goodcitizn Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:31 am
Amen to that.Merlot Daruwala wrote:1. Miscellaneous environmentalists breastbeating about loss of invaluable forest cover, biodiversity, rarest of rare species etc
2. Miscellaneous NGOs breastbeating about loss of tribal lands, traditional way of life, sacred mountains etc
3. A waffling, spineless government pulled in every which direction, reluctant to antagonize any group of votes..er..people
goodcitizn- Posts : 3263
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by goodcitizn Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:51 am
I don't have as good a crystal ball as our Captain Bhankas but I think Sensex will hit 17,000 soon. May even get lower by year-end.Merlot Daruwala wrote:I thought it would bounce back after the massive 770 point fall on Friday, but no! Another 400 + points down today with another hour of trading left...
Bought some ICICI Bk shares (down 5% today). Hope it pays off in the long run.
goodcitizn- Posts : 3263
Join date : 2011-05-03
Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:11 am
Captain Bhankas wrote:the market has shut chidambaram up after he prescribed what it should do. the people have already shut him up by continuing to buy gold.
If only the Govt. can force the jewelers to account for the source of money the customers are using to buy Gold, there might be some respite. Until then no matter how much duty is imposed, the Desis cannot be dulled when it comes to Gold.
People will have to hide all that (black) money they made in Land dealings in the last few years.
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Seva Lamberdar Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:22 am
Do you know how many points you will be ahead today if you had kept the money inside the pillow?Merlot Daruwala wrote:I thought it would bounce back after the massive 770 point fall on Friday, but no! Another 400 + points down today with another hour of trading left...
Bought some ICICI Bk shares (down 5% today). Hope it pays off in the long run.
Seva Lamberdar- Posts : 6586
Join date : 2012-11-29 -
Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Captain Bhankas Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:26 am
another 300 points. rupee at 64. congrats evvvwwyrryyyone!
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Propagandhi711 Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:59 am
I wonder what this is going to do to banks, wont they be at risk for defaults due to degraded quality of the assets and such?Captain Bhankas wrote:another 300 points. rupee at 64. congrats evvvwwyrryyyone!
this is what happens when a tired old douche runs the show at the helm of a party which governs by giving sops to votebanks. oh, but they're "secular" so never mind.
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by southindian Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:06 am
They are secular?Propagandhi711 wrote:I wonder what this is going to do to banks, wont they be at risk for defaults due to degraded quality of the assets and such?Captain Bhankas wrote:another 300 points. rupee at 64. congrats evvvwwyrryyyone!
this is what happens when a tired old douche runs the show at the helm of a party which governs by giving sops to votebanks. oh, but they're "secular" so never mind.
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by truthbetold Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:44 pm
Gc , merlot
i have to verify but consider this information:
1. Indian coal is law grade in both efficiency and environmental impact.
2. coal from usa is available at historical laws due to abundance of natural gas.
there may be some logic to coal imports.
i have to verify but consider this information:
1. Indian coal is law grade in both efficiency and environmental impact.
2. coal from usa is available at historical laws due to abundance of natural gas.
there may be some logic to coal imports.
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Captain Bhankas Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:00 am
yes. NPAs are on the rise. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results/hdfc-bk-q1-net30loan-growth-shrs-fallnpa-rise_919275.htmlPropagandhi711 wrote:I wonder what this is going to do to banks, wont they be at risk for defaults due to degraded quality of the assets and such?Captain Bhankas wrote:another 300 points. rupee at 64. congrats evvvwwyrryyyone!
Captain Bhankas- Posts : 676
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Merlot Daruwala Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:06 am
Woo hoo, all in the green today. ICICI Bk up 3%; HDFC Bk up 5.6%.
The market is one bipolar mothafucka.
The market is one bipolar mothafucka.
Merlot Daruwala- Posts : 5005
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Captain Bhankas Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:28 am
woo hoo! my folio was down 30% yesterday and it is down 28.7% today. what's not to yay about!?!
Captain Bhankas- Posts : 676
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Merlot Daruwala Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:40 am
I have some big turkeys in my portfolio too: MTNL, L&T and BHEL. I plan to hold on to all three - the latter two because they are good companies going through a tough patch and will eventually bounce back.
I hold MTNL for a different reason - so I never forget how not to invest. I bought it at Rs 200+ in 1998 (on some half-baked analysis about how the book value > market price). It's now at Rs 12. Lesson learned. And remembered every time I look at my portfolio.
Merlot Daruwala- Posts : 5005
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Captain Bhankas Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:49 am
200 to 12 is an epic fall. reminds me of suzlon.
i like the positive spin you have put on the lemon. i have two such lemons (135 --> 40, 98--> 30) in my portfolio and both are bleeding bad. they are the reasons why i have stayed away from the markets for more than a year now. thank you, lemons.
i like the positive spin you have put on the lemon. i have two such lemons (135 --> 40, 98--> 30) in my portfolio and both are bleeding bad. they are the reasons why i have stayed away from the markets for more than a year now. thank you, lemons.
Captain Bhankas- Posts : 676
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Guest Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:53 am
hahahahahahah! in 2008, after the equities crash, i withdrew totally from equities (in my MF portfolio) and turned to FMPs and debt schemes where i thought there was zero risk. with the recent spike in bond yields, my MF portfolio is bleeding: NAVs have crashed. there is no place to hide.Merlot Daruwala wrote: I bought it at Rs 200+ in 1998 (on some half-baked analysis about how the book value > market price). It's now at Rs 12.
Guest- Guest
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Merlot Daruwala Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:37 am
Same thought here. With this fall, we're back to Sep 2012. A full year's gain wiped off in a week.
Merlot Daruwala- Posts : 5005
Join date : 2011-04-29
Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by harharmahadev Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:28 am
I told you so.
I'm not very good at timing the market, but I get the trend right.
India is setting itself on a hyperinflationary spiral. The 'fixes' that India is attempting to deploy won't work. INR will continue to plummet and it might reach an exponential blow-out. If I have to make a wild guess, I'd say Rs 150 to Rs 200 to $1 before the government get's serious about taking action.
Why such a dire prediction, you ask? Let me explain.
Oil is subsidized by the government. With every Rs 1 drop, the Oil import bill goes up by 40k-50k crores. Currently, the govt's budget was based on an exchange rate of Rs 54. At 64+, the budget balloons and makes it unmanageable.
If the govt gets rid of subsidies, inflation will shoot up and that, in turn, will cause interest rates to spike. This will cause the budget to go up drastically (not sure of the exact figures). 6-month T-bill yield in India is upward of 11%.
In case that was not enough, the government announced further welfare/entitlement schemes like the Food Security Act.
There are only 3 ways India can get out of this situation:
1. Grow at 10%+ consistently for a decade (improbable but not impossible)
2. File for bankruptcy
3. Default through inflation.
No. 1 would require economically sound policies and good leadership. India doesn't have that. Plus, the hype about India is waning. So Mr Fickle Investor is looking elseway (say, Africa). I'm not going to bet on a 8-10% REAL growth.
No.2 may be politically unfeasible.
No.3 is the most likely outcome. RBI may try to prevent a hard-landing, but that might prove to be a costly exercise. When the new Govner takes over (Raghu Raman), he might let the Rupee free fall, since he is a believer in free markets.
Magic can happen if oil drops to $40 a barrel and FIIs suddenly fall in love will India again and invest all the money they pulled out of India and then some more. Maybe we can pray to God and crack open a few coconuts at the Siddhi Vinayak temple and see if that helps.
I'm not very good at timing the market, but I get the trend right.
India is setting itself on a hyperinflationary spiral. The 'fixes' that India is attempting to deploy won't work. INR will continue to plummet and it might reach an exponential blow-out. If I have to make a wild guess, I'd say Rs 150 to Rs 200 to $1 before the government get's serious about taking action.
Why such a dire prediction, you ask? Let me explain.
Oil is subsidized by the government. With every Rs 1 drop, the Oil import bill goes up by 40k-50k crores. Currently, the govt's budget was based on an exchange rate of Rs 54. At 64+, the budget balloons and makes it unmanageable.
If the govt gets rid of subsidies, inflation will shoot up and that, in turn, will cause interest rates to spike. This will cause the budget to go up drastically (not sure of the exact figures). 6-month T-bill yield in India is upward of 11%.
In case that was not enough, the government announced further welfare/entitlement schemes like the Food Security Act.
There are only 3 ways India can get out of this situation:
1. Grow at 10%+ consistently for a decade (improbable but not impossible)
2. File for bankruptcy
3. Default through inflation.
No. 1 would require economically sound policies and good leadership. India doesn't have that. Plus, the hype about India is waning. So Mr Fickle Investor is looking elseway (say, Africa). I'm not going to bet on a 8-10% REAL growth.
No.2 may be politically unfeasible.
No.3 is the most likely outcome. RBI may try to prevent a hard-landing, but that might prove to be a costly exercise. When the new Govner takes over (Raghu Raman), he might let the Rupee free fall, since he is a believer in free markets.
Magic can happen if oil drops to $40 a barrel and FIIs suddenly fall in love will India again and invest all the money they pulled out of India and then some more. Maybe we can pray to God and crack open a few coconuts at the Siddhi Vinayak temple and see if that helps.
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:18 am
In other words work on building Ayodhya Temple and some more temple and Govt subsidize Mega Yagnas at all temples.harharmahadev wrote:I told you so.
I'm not very good at timing the market, but I get the trend right.
Magic can happen if oil drops to $40 a barrel and FIIs suddenly fall in love will India again and invest all the money they pulled out of India and then some more. Maybe we can pray to God and crack open a few coconuts at the Siddhi Vinayak temple and see if that helps.
With Egypt, Syria, Al Queda, etc.. Oil is not coming down anytimesoon. Unless Uncle Sam produces a whole lot of gas fast.... even then..
with elections coming no one is cutting back on freeTV and free Idlies.
so there...dont send any dollars to India...
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Re: Blood bath in Indian markets
by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:22 am
I was a super expert during DOTCOM burst...lost some $30K knew practically sympbols of all IT/net companies (that was the time I was a computer nerd). Luckily, I also gained just as much in Mutual funds...Captain Bhankas wrote:200 to 12 is an epic fall. reminds me of suzlon.
i like the positive spin you have put on the lemon. i have two such lemons (135 --> 40, 98--> 30) in my portfolio and both are bleeding bad. they are the reasons why i have stayed away from the markets for more than a year now. thank you, lemons.
so it sort of evened out. With that I lost all interest in day trading, computers, stocks, and money making...
Attained Nirvana..in 2001.
Marathadi-Saamiyaar- Posts : 17675
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» In the West, society wants people to dress properly, regardless of whether or not they have taken a bath.
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