merlot, what is going on in indian stock market?

by truthbetold Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:05 am

Has it bottomed? Or is it artificially held up to tide over elections? Is modi win fully factored?
Here are some positive factors:
emerging markets took it on chin with fed change of policy.
China's slowdown is more or less factored in.
Usa and Europe on rebound.
inflation worldwide is still small.
Rupee is weak.

Exports should pick up.

So what is it I am missing that is causing India to hold back? Elections? Kejriwal?

by southindian Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:10 am

Merlot is visiting Uganda and should soon be back on SuCH.

by Merlot Daruwala Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:14 am

truthbetold wrote:Has it bottomed? Or is it artificially held up to tide over elections? Is modi win fully factored?
Here are some positive factors:
emerging markets took it on chin with fed change of policy.
China's slowdown is more or less factored in.
Usa and Europe on rebound.
inflation worldwide is still small.
Rupee is weak.

Exports should pick up.

So what is it I am missing that is causing India to hold back? Elections? Kejriwal?

Investors here are sitting tight, unwilling to take any bets until after the elections. Sensex continues to trade close to the 21K mark and is not exactly cheap at 13-13.5x fwd earnings, held up by safe havens like IT, Pharma and FMCG stock which are all at all-time high valuations. There are really beaten down sectors like Infra, Capital goods etc but nobody's brave enough at the moment to touch them until elections.

If Modi comes to power (as per consensus expectation), then there could be a steep rally on results day. On the flip side, if neither BJP nor Cong get a majority, expect a 15-20% fall.

by truthbetold Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:47 am

What is fmcg stock?

it and pharma are doing well . my accidental picks did as well as some bubble stocks.

Based on your comment market is in a modi riddle. that is not an easy one to forecast.

reliance - is the golden run finished with oil and gas drying up? does mukesh have any tricks left? retail?

by harharmahadev Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:50 am

truthbetold wrote:Has it bottomed? Or is it artificially held up to tide over elections? Is modi win fully factored?
Here are some positive factors:
emerging markets took it on chin with fed change of policy.
China's slowdown is more or less factored in.
Usa and Europe on rebound.
inflation worldwide is still small.
Rupee is weak.

Exports should pick up.

So what is it I am missing that is causing India to hold back? Elections? Kejriwal?

Am I allowed to comment?

by truthbetold Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:03 pm

harharmahadev wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Has it bottomed? Or is it artificially held up to tide over elections? Is modi win fully factored?
Here are some positive factors:
emerging markets took it on chin with fed change of policy.
China's slowdown is more or less factored in.
Usa and Europe on rebound.
inflation worldwide is still small.
Rupee is weak.

Exports should pick up.

So what is it I am missing that is causing India to hold back? Elections? Kejriwal?

Am I allowed to comment?

if you have anything useful or sensible to comment.

by harharmahadev Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:20 pm

truthbetold wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Has it bottomed? Or is it artificially held up to tide over elections? Is modi win fully factored?
Here are some positive factors:
emerging markets took it on chin with fed change of policy.
China's slowdown is more or less factored in.
Usa and Europe on rebound.
inflation worldwide is still small.
Rupee is weak.

Exports should pick up.

So what is it I am missing that is causing India to hold back? Elections? Kejriwal?

Am I allowed to comment?
if you have anything useful or sensible to comment.

I can't promise that, because I can only say what I'm going to say. It's up to you to decide whether the information was useful or sensible.

Let me explain further. Once, a child asked me how trees grow. I explained the process of photosynthesis and all. To me, it was useful and sensible information, but the child was unable to grasp the knowledge. Hence, to the child, the information I provided was useless and nonsense.

I don't feel comfortable sharing my opinion if you are going to place such arbitrary qualifiers.

by truthbetold Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:37 pm

If you are not confident that you make sense you can always find something better to.do. that will save you and others lot of productivity.

by harharmahadev Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:45 pm

truthbetold wrote:If you are not confident that you make sense you can always find something better to.do. that will save you and others lot of productivity.

I am not confident that it will make sense to you. It really depends on your ability to grasp complex economic policies and their impact on future earnings, GDP growth correlations and stock market valuations.

by truthbetold Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:49 pm

If you are not capable of making statements that your readers can understand then you are an imposter.
the present sequence of messages indicate a person who us trying to weasel out of a simple question but pose as a knowledgeable experienced expert.

check your gold predictions over the last few years for sanity check.

by harharmahadev Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:31 pm

truthbetold wrote:If you are not capable of making statements that your readers can understand then you are an imposter.
the present sequence of messages indicate a person who us trying to weasel out of a simple question but pose as a knowledgeable experienced expert.

check your gold predictions over the last few years for sanity check.

I'm not weaseling out of anything. I wanted to know if only Merlot could respond or if others were allowed to chime in. If you don't want to hear alternate views, then that's fine!

Yes, check my gold predictions for the last few years and rationale and check the charts. Dekho dekho! While you are at it, check my predictions on the subprime crisis and the INR and Indian stock market and economy.

by truthbetold Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:04 pm

You know the answer. you got a clear response. yet you stretched this useless discussion for what purpose god knows.
you got any thing to say , it is time. Otherwise find some other corner to ply your sly trade.

by harharmahadev Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:12 pm

truthbetold wrote:You know the answer. you got a clear response. yet you stretched this useless discussion for what purpose god knows.
you got any thing to say , it is time. Otherwise find some other corner to ply your sly trade.

But why did you direct this question only to Merlot? Why is he your go-to guy for the Indian stock market? I would like to know.

by truthbetold Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:38 pm

harharmahadev wrote:
truthbetold wrote:You know the answer. you got a clear response. yet you stretched this useless discussion for what purpose god knows.
you got any thing to say , it is time. Otherwise find some other corner to ply your sly trade.

But why did you direct this question only to Merlot? Why is he your go-to guy for the Indian stock market? I would like to know.

you could have asked that question right away and we could have avoided this whole unnecessary discussion.
I wanted to know the current situation on the ground in india. he spends quite a bit of time in India. he comments on stocks occassionally. that is why i asked him.

my perception is that you live in usa . you may very well have the best knowledge of Indian market among such posters and i would like to hear other views also. once i post a thread i do not own it anymore than any other poster. any one can post. My only request is don`t make it personal. it is not worth either of our time.

by harharmahadev Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:50 pm

truthbetold wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:
truthbetold wrote:You know the answer. you got a clear response. yet you stretched this useless discussion for what purpose god knows.
you got any thing to say , it is time. Otherwise find some other corner to ply your sly trade.

But why did you direct this question only to Merlot? Why is he your go-to guy for the Indian stock market? I would like to know.
you could have asked that question right away and we could have avoided this whole unnecessary discussion.
I wanted to know the current situation on the ground in india. he spends quite a bit of time in India. he comments on stocks occassionally. that is why i asked him.

my perception is that you live in usa . you may very well have the best knowledge of Indian market among such posters and i would like to hear other views also. once i post a thread i do not own it anymore than any other poster. any one can post. My only request is don`t make it personal. it is not worth either of our time.

I did not make it personal. I asked a very simple question. You were the one who made it personal by name calling and stuff. You are the one callin me imposter!

by truthbetold Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:58 pm

Who brought up the child story? you seem to be more inclined to pick up an argument than answering the question.

by harharmahadev Wed Feb 26, 2014 4:07 pm

truthbetold wrote:Who brought up the child story? you seem to be more inclined to pick up an argument than answering the question.

The child story was brought up to elucidate how an argument can be perceived as useful and sensible to one party and useless and senseless to another. It was not meant to be a personal attack.

by truthbetold Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:37 pm

What is the need to bring up child other than to pick up an argument?

This thread proves the point you have nothing useful to contribute on this topic.

by harharmahadev Thu Feb 27, 2014 8:43 am

truthbetold wrote:What is the need to bring up child other than to pick up an argument?

This thread proves the point you have nothing useful to contribute on this topic.

Again, you are raking up the child story. As I said earlier, the child story was brought up to elucidate how an argument can be perceived as useful and sensible to one party and useless and senseless to another. It was not meant to pick an argument.

All I asked you was can I respond to your question or is this question directed specifically to Merlot, in a very gentlemanly way. You haven't given me a yes or no answer. You could have said, 'of course, please go ahead' or 'I would love to hear what you have to say' or something to that effect. That would be non-argumentative. But no, all you have been doing is making derogatory comments and condescending retorts.

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