Ukraine - Expect Russia to annex Crimea VERY SOON

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:35 am

Ruskies are moving with a solid plan...

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-politics/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

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Meanwhile, Russian lawmakers introduced two bills Friday to simplify annexing new territories into the Russian Federation and simplify access to Russian citizenship for Ukrainians, the state news agency Itar Tass said.

One bill also stipulates that the accession of a part of a foreign state to Russia should be taken through a referendum, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.
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by truthbetold Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:35 am

Samiyar
And what would that solid plan be?
Russia and China have repeatedly picked losers in the past. Two or three decades
North Korea, Syria, Iran and Ukraine ' yankovich.
If Russia did anything short term gain and long term loss including wto membership.

by Hellsangel Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:30 am

Your Holiness who knows it all, Palin told you so.

by truthbetold Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:47 am

Hellsangel wrote:Your Holiness who knows it all, Palin told you so.

Why does Palin wade into issues that she cannot understand?

Her told you so is such senseless claim since the present situation has only one side at the board, russia. If russia miscalculates its moves in its own neighbourhood, MCcain or bush or obama or regan or whoever is the president of USA have only one option. Jawboning.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 1:15 pm

truthbetold wrote:Samiyar
And what would that solid plan be?
Russia and China have repeatedly picked losers in the past. Two or three decades
North Korea, Syria, Iran and Ukraine ' yankovich.
If Russia did anything short term gain and long term loss including wto membership.

Palin would not know where Ukraine was when she made the statement. Let alone crimea.

There is nothing any US president could have done or do in this case. Russians are invading Crimea, which is surrounded by Black Sea and Russia and the western could hardly interfere. Russian dominated Crimea was, after all transferred to Ukraine by Russia in 1954 for ease of administration. Now that the Ukraine itself is bolting out of russian connections, Russia may use its historic connection to Crimea to take it back. If Ukraine has the right to move away from the Soviet Union, why shouldn't the russians in Crimea have the same right to leave Ukraine?

Russia is loaded with money and oil. US cannot do anything to it at this time (this is not 19900, and the Europeans can do even less. If the ruskies turn off their gas tap, the Europeans will be frozen to death. US and Euro will make a lot of noise and nothing else. Russians are saying without saying what the US Ambassador said about the Europeans "Fyuck the World"

by MaxEntropy_Man Sat Mar 01, 2014 1:54 pm

done, according to the NYT.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:13 pm

Lesson for India here;

When it is your interest that is threatened "dont give a fuck to the world if it is in your interest"

Just do it.

by Kris Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:05 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:Lesson for India here;

When it is your interest that is threatened "dont give a fuck to the world if it is in your interest"

Just do it.

>>>It still requires some ability to strategize for long term purposes. Israelis, as an example, have done this with the cultivation of powerful backing in the US. Anyway, specifically on this issue, Putin is not an idiot. The show of strength is to let the ethnic Russians in Ukraine know then can raise the clamor for separatism. On a parallel basis Russia is working out the "legalities" for the annexation of territory. Sure, the EU and the US will make loud noises about it, but in the end he will cite the referendum and the will of the people to join Russia. The West needs to do business with Russia and this gives them the fig leaf as well and voila, all if good. If you think about it, there is a parallel with Pakistan/Kashmir here. Of course, Pakistan cannot pull this off because it is perceived as a pariah state and is an economic basket-case and has no standing in global commerce.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:15 pm

Kris wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:Lesson for India here;

When it is your interest that is threatened "dont give a fuck to the world if it is in your interest"

Just do it.

>>>It still requires some ability to strategize for long term purposes. Israelis, as an example, have done this with the cultivation of powerful backing in the US. Anyway, specifically on this issue, Putin is not an idiot. The show of strength is to let the ethnic Russians in Ukraine know then can raise the clamor for separatism. On a parallel basis Russia is working out the "legalities" for the annexation of territory. Sure, the EU and the US will make loud noises about it, but in the end he will cite the referendum and the will of the people to join Russia. The West needs to do business with Russia and this gives them the fig leaf as well and voila, all if good. If you think about it, there is a parallel with Pakistan/Kashmir here. Of course, Pakistan cannot pull this off because it is perceived as a pariah state and is an economic basket-case and has no standing in global commerce.

There is a reason why the Ruskies moved swiftly on Crimea. 1. Black Sea access and control, 2. Crimean naval bases, 3. Crimean russian population, 4. Crimean foothold to split Ukraine further.

If Ruskies delayed the annexation, Ukrainian govt quickly get international and UN reognition and allow Nato fleet to visit Black sea bases and ports.

Imagine NATO carrier in Sevasatapol....are you kidding...it will be like russian aircraft carrier in San Francisco bay.

by Idéfix Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:23 pm

Neither Ukraine nor the west has much leverage in this situation. Crimea was part of Russia far longer than it was part of Ukraine. The majority of the population is Russian (as a result of Soviet-era ethnic cleansing of other groups). There is a sizable Russian minority in the rest of Ukraine, but Crimea is fundamentally different. If the unwinding of the Soviet Empire had been more orderly, I suspect Crimea would have been returned to the Russian Federation.

If this action by Russia strengthens the hand of pro-NATO Ukrainians, it won't be a bad thing overall for Ukraine. Putin is intent on humiliating Ukraine and making the country toe his line. If the recent protests in Kyiv and elsewhere are anything to go by, Ukraine may not be willing to submit to Russian authority.

by Kris Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:25 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Kris wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:Lesson for India here;

When it is your interest that is threatened "dont give a fuck to the world if it is in your interest"

Just do it.

>>>It still requires some ability to strategize for long term purposes. Israelis, as an example, have done this with the cultivation of powerful backing in the US. Anyway, specifically on this issue, Putin is not an idiot. The show of strength is to let the ethnic Russians in Ukraine know then can raise the clamor for separatism. On a parallel basis Russia is working out the "legalities" for the annexation of territory. Sure, the EU and the US will make loud noises about it, but in the end he will cite the referendum and the will of the people to join Russia. The West needs to do business with Russia and this gives them the fig leaf as well and voila, all if good. If you think about it, there is a parallel with Pakistan/Kashmir here. Of course, Pakistan cannot pull this off because it is perceived as a pariah state and is an economic basket-case and has no standing in global commerce.

There is a reason why the Ruskies moved swiftly on Crimea. 1. Black Sea access and control, 2. Crimean naval bases, 3. Crimean russian population, 4. Crimean foothold to split Ukraine further.

If Ruskies delayed the annexation, Ukrainian govt quickly get international and UN reognition and allow Nato fleet to visit Black sea bases and ports.

Imagine NATO carrier in Sevasatapol....are you kidding...it will be like russian aircraft carrier in San Francisco bay.

>>>Yep! With the pro west tilt happening, Putin wants to head this off at the pass.

by Kris Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:28 pm

Idéfix wrote:Neither Ukraine nor the west has much leverage in this situation. Crimea was part of Russia far longer than it was part of Ukraine. The majority of the population is Russian (as a result of Soviet-era ethnic cleansing of other groups). There is a sizable Russian minority in the rest of Ukraine, but Crimea is fundamentally different. If the unwinding of the Soviet Empire had been more orderly, I suspect Crimea would have been returned to the Russian Federation.

If this action by Russia strengthens the hand of pro-NATO Ukrainians, it won't be a bad thing overall for Ukraine. Putin is intent on humiliating Ukraine and making the country toe his line. If the recent protests in Kyiv and elsewhere are anything to go by, Ukraine may not be willing to submit to Russian authority.

>>>>There could be an ego issue here, but there is also cold geopolitical calculus here. See MS's post below.

by Hellsangel Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:45 pm

Not to worry, Obambi will give Uncle Vlad a strict talking to.

by Propagandhi711 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:20 pm

Superficially doesn't this feel like mid to late 30s with Weimar republic reclaiming loss of its territory following the treaty of Versailles? Things aren't exactly same, but triumphant Olympics held by Putin followed by campaigns to reclaim old territory reminds one of 1936..

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:30 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:Superficially doesn't this feel like mid to late 30s with Weimar republic reclaiming loss of its territory following the treaty of Versailles? Things aren't exactly same, but triumphant Olympics held by Putin followed by campaigns to reclaim old territory reminds one of 1936..

One can find some similarities to many historical situations. But, West is overly focussed on Chikus and had taken their eyes of the Ruskies. No one treats them like a superpower and even messing with them. China is campaigning to reclaim old territory for a while - in some form or other and flexing their military on their eastern front. Ruskies can and want to show the West they are still the super power at least in their neigborhood. If NATO moves its missiles and ABMs to Ukraine, Ruskies have absolutely no buffer and are naked in front of the West.

let us face it... West and NATO are alive unlike the soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc, but they are VERY WEAK. They just talk as though they are as powerful in the 70s/8s. They have failed miserably in middle east and egypt and closign shop in Afghanistan, North Korea is calling their bluff and Chinkus are thumbing their nose at them. Why woud the ruskies be afriad of the West ?

As long as the ruskies reclaim their lost land and influence and NOT STEP into the traditional Western Territory, all will be fine. The germans over stepped and bombed London, which brought on the WWII. If they had not done that, they would still be ruling the whole of Europe under one flag. But, most despots get greedy and hope Putin does not.

by Propagandhi711 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:34 pm

Your holiness, Germany didn't bomb London to start ww2.. Just a minor quibble with your chronology of events kind sir but please continue with your history lessons with its weeping arc until present day

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:42 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:Your holiness, Germany didn't bomb London to start ww2.. Just a minor quibble with your chronology of events kind sir but please continue with your history lessons with its weeping arc until present day

Of course not... but they were planning on expansion for while and the bRits and the us knew and were looking for a reason to get into the war. They did not get into "save the jews" as they would make everyone believe. simple human logic takesplace. If something is happening in the neighborhood we watch and dont get involved, but if we suspect we ourselves will be trouble, then we act. Countries act(ed) in the same way.

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