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The nuclear black swan

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The nuclear black swan Empty The nuclear black swan

Post by sambarvada Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:31 pm

http://www.indiatogether.org/2011/mar/rkr-swan.htm



<P align=justify>The point of a black swan event is that it cannot be predicted. Since we cannot predict such complex events and their consequences, we can only do one of two things: plan for the worst case scenario as we imagine it to be and endure the meltdown when our imagination fails or stop ourselves from going down a path that might (however unlikely it may be) lead to a catastrophe.
<P align=justify>I believe that we should stay away from black swan events of our own creation. We cannot predict earthquakes perfectly; neither can we get our trains to be eighteen seconds late or your money back. In the absence of such precision, I think it is fitting that we act humbly, and stress the potential dangers. It is time to scale back the naked self-interest being displayed in the name of science.
If the situation were different, I wouldn't expect a political and techno-scientific class acting in its own self-interest to step back from a potential disaster. But the cloud of nuclear cataclysm is no ordinary danger; if a Chernobyl-like event happens in India, the consequences for the political class will be as much of a black swan as the event itself. Some events are so horrendous that it is better not to risk them at all. Why play with the nuclear fire?

sambarvada

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Join date : 2011-04-29

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