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2/3 of voting is done in India, so where are the expected results?

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Post by truthbetold Sat Apr 26, 2014 7:17 pm

This is a freaking long election process.  They start on April 7 and go till may 12.  Are there no sites outside India that can provide some information on voting patterns?  If there are no such sites, it is actually a tribute to indian state that they can control news for such long time. 

I heard some numbers through informal conversations. But found no way to verify them. 

So I am going back to some numbers I wrote some time back in my cheat sheet:

NDA 200 +20. 

Modi needs 50 more. Need support from BJD, JJ, and few others. 

Or JJ leading united front.  (all non BJP/non congress parties would support her including SP, Laloo, and BSP. Exception is DMK). JJ is not a direct threat to any of the regional sultans.  
 Mamata will not be supported by Left and may be not even by congress because she is from NI and could be a long term threat. 

Modi or JJ? what do you think?

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Post by Vakavaka Pakapaka Sat Apr 26, 2014 7:48 pm

If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.

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Post by truthbetold Sat Apr 26, 2014 7:50 pm

I think it is too late to lie to hurt JJ.  I think TN is done.  She is just finishing her last few days as CM.

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Post by Guest Sat Apr 26, 2014 7:59 pm

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.

Gujarat got a Lokayukta only 3-4 months ago.

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Post by Vakavaka Pakapaka Sat Apr 26, 2014 9:48 pm

Rashmun wrote:
Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.

Gujarat got a Lokayukta only 3-4 months ago.
Before that, the CON-Governor blocked all suggestions from the Gujrat govt. She was also known to be involvec in corruption in Rajasthan.

Pappu clearly said that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta. That is a lie.

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Post by Guest Sat Apr 26, 2014 9:51 pm

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:
Rashmun wrote:
Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.

Gujarat got a Lokayukta only 3-4 months ago.
Before that, the CON-Governor blocked all suggestions from the Gujrat govt. She was also known to be involvec in corruption in Rajasthan.

Pappu clearly said that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta. That is a lie.

Rahul said that if Gujarat had a Lokayukta in the last ten years then Modi would have been in jail. I don't think he said Gujarat doesn't have a Lokayukta as of today.

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:30 am

I just crunched numbers. Raw is going to lose his sleep.
for modi to be pm, he has to win above 40 in up and Congress has to be restricted to 90 or less. Otherwise it looks like jj.
My opinion is that this talk will gain momentum after next round of elections on April 30. By may 12, we will see more and more news about modi alternative.

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:51 pm

StatePartySeats won    
(# of seats)2014 NDA2014 UPA2014 third2014 others
Andhra PradeshIndian National Congress33 10  
-42  10 
Andhra PradeshTelugu Desam Party612   
-42    
Andhra PradeshTelangana Rashtra Samithi2  8 
-42    
Andhra PradeshAll India Majlis e Ittehad Al Muslameen1 1  
-42    

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:55 pm

Such would not allow me to post the entire file. So I am breaking the expected results into smaller packets.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2009

Provides 2009 results data. I took that table and modified it to 2014 expected results. I aranged 2014 NDA under one column and so on.  Towards the end I will include the totals.

I eliminated the states that were not modified but included them in final totals (ex: Goa).

Feel free to challenge and suggest alternate numbers.

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:57 pm

BiharJanata Dal (United)20    
-40  4 
BiharBharatiya Janata Party12    
-4020   
BiharRashtriya Janata Dal4    
-40 12  
BiharIndian National Congress2 2  
-40    
BiharIndependent2    
-40   2
Delhi (7)Indian National Congress751 1
GujaratBharatiya Janata Party1520   
-26    
GujaratIndian National Congress11 6  
-26    
HaryanaIndian National Congress955  
-10    
HaryanaHaryana Janhit Congress1    
-10    
JharkhandBharatiya Janata Party86   
-14    
JharkhandJharkhand Mukti Morcha2   2
-14    
JharkhandIndian National Congress1 3  
-14    
JharkhandJharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik)1   1
-14    
JharkhandIndependent2    
-14   2

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:01 pm

KarnatakaBharatiya Janata Party19    
289   
KarnatakaIndian National Congress6 16  
-28    
KarnatakaJanata Dal (Secular)3  3 
-28    
KeralaIndian National Congress13    
-20 10  
KeralaLeft Democratic Front4    
-20  7 
KeralaIndian Union Muslim League2 2  
-20    
KeralaKerala Congress (Mani)1   1
-20    
Madhya PradeshBharatiya Janata Party16    
-2920   
Madhya PradeshIndian National Congress12 8  
-29    
Madhya PradeshBahujan Samaj Party1   1
-29    
MaharashtraIndian National Congress17    
-48 7  
MaharashtraShiv Sena11    
-4820   
MaharashtraBharatiya Janata Party9    
-4815   
MaharashtraNationalist Congress Party8 3  
-48    
MaharashtraBahujan Vikas Aaghadi1   1
-48    
MaharashtraSwabhimani Paksha1   1
-48    
MaharashtraIndependent1   1
-48    

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:03 pm

OrissaBiju Janata Dal14    
-214 10 
OrissaIndian National Congress6 6  
-21    
OrissaCommunist Party of India1  1 
-21    
PunjabIndian National Congress8    
-13 6  
PunjabShiromani Akali Dal46   
-13    
PunjabBharatiya Janata Party11   
-13    
RajasthanIndian National Congress20    
-25 4  
RajasthanBharatiya Janata Party420   
-25    
RajasthanIndependent1    
-25   1
Tamil NaduDravida Munnetra Kazhagam18   7
-39    
Tamil NaduAll India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam9  25 
-39    
Tamil NaduIndian National Congress8 3  
-39    
Tamil NaduCommunist Party of India1  1 
-39    
Tamil NaduCommunist Party of India (Marxist)1  1 
-39    
Tamil NaduMarumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam1   1
-39    
Tamil NaduViduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi1   1
-39    
Uttar PradeshSamajwadi Party23  18 
-80    
Uttar PradeshIndian National Congress21 15  
-80    
Uttar PradeshBahujan Samaj Party20  15 
-80    
Uttar PradeshBharatiya Janata Party1025   
-80    
Uttar PradeshRashtriya Lok Dal5 5  
-80    
Uttar PradeshIndependent1   2
-80    

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:05 pm

West BengalAll India Trinamool Congress19  29 
-42    
West BengalLeft Front15  8 
-42    
West BengalIndian National Congress6 3  
-42    
West BengalBharatiya Janata Party11   
-42    
West BengalSocialist Unity Centre of India1  1 
-42    
54321215614627

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:13 pm

Ok. That completes the weekend project.  Took me long to post it. 

Once again:  Column headings are
State (number of seats)
Party Name
2009 actual results
2014 NDA expected results
2014 UPA expected results
2014 Third front expected results
2014 Others - expected results (ex: YSRC , DMK)

Total of each column are given in the last row.  Couple of numbers are to be updated but count is accurate otherwise. Feel free to point out errors. 

These above numbers are based on publicly available information and view points expressed by such posters including myself.

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Post by rawemotions Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:21 pm

truthbetold wrote:I just crunched numbers. Raw is going to lose his sleep.
for modi to be pm,  he has to win above 40 in up and Congress has to be restricted to 90 or less.  Otherwise it looks like jj.
My opinion is that this talk will gain momentum after next round of elections on April 30. By may 12, we will see more and more news about modi alternative.
Why should I lose my sleep ? I never believe any of the Opinion Polls anyway  because I consider the sample size small for Indian population and demographic variation.

There is probably not much to be gained, by analyzing all these. The best thing is to wait for May 16th evening. Things would be known.

But if anyway you are doing some work on this, it would be much easier if you could post it in excel form. Also interesting to see what the last opinion poll said so that it can confirmed how wrong or right they were. Can't make much sense of text and columns here.

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Post by rawemotions Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:31 pm

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.
I personally think Congress has made up its mind to not be in government directly. 
Congress's complete strategy is to prevent NDA from forming government under Modi at any cost.  If anybody feels this is not so, would like to hear/debate this as a separate topic.

Allegedly the congress strategy would be 
a) Aim for a disparate set of parties to come together to form a post poll coalition, 
   with they providing outside support. Economy would become even worse, then
   they can pull the rug (they will not do with openly, but foment trouble among    partners withing the coalition)
b) If that does not work, form a coalition with they being in the government
c) If they cannot be a part of it in any form, agitate for a complete Third Front Government, with they promising not to rock the boat for a given set of years.
d) If NDA tries to wean any new allies, raise the bogey of Modi (through the allies) and agitate for some  other BJP leader to be PM. The objective here is to destroy the unity in BJP.
e) If by a miracle, the NDA cobbles together a majority with or without Modi, anyway insult them by not attending the swearing in ceremony.

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:37 pm

Raw
Excel file. I got one but could not post it here. It kept rejecting the post as too long. If any one had suggestions I would appreciate it.

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:43 pm

Raw
In terms of opinion polls. I would actually go to Jan/early march as base line. My numbers above probably align with even though it is not in any way manipulated to. Match them.

You made a very good post on up numbers. I think polls from April included some outlandish claims from up that pushed numbers to 240 to 250.

However as you have argued earlier the few additional % points swing in the last few days will make a big difference. That is why opinion polls are good for directional prediction. And we need to wait till may 16.

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Post by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:50 pm

Raw
In terms of the ability to pick few additional seats, here are some possibilities if stars are aligned properly:
up - 10 to 15
Ap - 5
Hindi belt other than up - 10 to 15
That is 0 to 35 range.
If nda gets to 230 they may have the momentum to cobble up a majority.

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Post by rawemotions Sun Apr 27, 2014 5:35 pm

truthbetold wrote:Raw
In terms of the ability to pick few additional seats,  here are some possibilities if stars are aligned properly:
up - 10 to 15
Ap - 5
Hindi belt other than up - 10 to 15
That is 0 to 35 range.
If nda gets to 230 they may have the momentum to cobble up a majority.
Are these additional seats on top of the Jan/Mar opinion Poll baseline ?

Can you post a summary (total seats) of your baseline, so that I do  not have to look up all these columns for NDA,UPA and the rest ?

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Post by rawemotions Sun Apr 27, 2014 5:52 pm

truthbetold wrote:Raw
In terms of the ability to pick few additional seats,  here are some possibilities if stars are aligned properly:
up - 10 to 15
Ap - 5
Hindi belt other than up - 10 to 15
That is 0 to 35 range.
If nda gets to 230 they may have the momentum to cobble up a majority.
OK now I somewhat understand your columns etc..
A few comments

Orissa
Could be very interesting, media reports indicate a late surge for NDA and many Congress supporters moving over to NDA. This can  increase the BJD's tally 
because opposition votes gets split. But it is also possible that BJP picks a few.

UP
I would be very surprised if RLD gets 5 seats in UP.

WB:
Given that TMC has burnt bridges with NDA, BJP supporters could vote left to keep TMC away. Last Lok Sabha left got many votes from areas that have still not been inundated by Islamists from Bangladesh. If that happens, it could actually benefit the Left a little more.

TN
Another interesting state. I expect the DMK to get a little more due to Anti-DMK votes getting split between AIADMK and NDA. But it is also possible the NDA picks more than the two seats projected. This can happen if Alagiri surreptitiously backs NDA in South.

Bihar
RLD+Congress (UPA) could get more than what is projected.

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Post by confuzzled dude Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:31 am

rawemotions wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Raw
In terms of the ability to pick few additional seats,  here are some possibilities if stars are aligned properly:
up - 10 to 15
Ap - 5
Hindi belt other than up - 10 to 15
That is 0 to 35 range.
If nda gets to 230 they may have the momentum to cobble up a majority.
Are these additional seats on top of the Jan/Mar opinion Poll baseline ?

Can you post a summary (total seats) of your baseline, so that I do  not have to look up all these columns for NDA,UPA and the rest ?
From what I hear they don't stand much chance in A.P (T is a gone case); but who knows, TRS or YSRC may decide to extend support to BJP to form government.

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Post by truthbetold Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:57 am

Cd
what i heard is that bjp will ditch tdp if it can gain 15 more seats from ysrc and trs.
bjp will talk to tmc if there us a need and some chance of success.

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Post by Guest Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:07 am

truthbetold wrote:Cd
what i heard is that bjp will ditch tdp if it can gain 15 more seats from ysrc  and trs.
bjp will talk to tmc if there us a need and some chance of success.

BJP will talk to TMC even though TMC is calling Modi "butcher of Gujarat" and "architect of riots"? Does BJP have no shame?

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/mamata-banerjee-calls-narendra-modi-architect-of-riots-says-his-gyan-not-needed-515205?pfrom=home-lateststories

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Post by truthbetold Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:28 am

Rashmun wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Cd
what i heard is that bjp will ditch tdp if it can gain 15 more seats from ysrc  and trs.
bjp will talk to tmc if there us a need and some chance of success.

BJP will talk to TMC even though TMC is calling Modi "butcher of Gujarat" and "architect of riots"? Does BJP have no shame?

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/mamata-banerjee-calls-narendra-modi-architect-of-riots-says-his-gyan-not-needed-515205?pfrom=home-lateststories

you are right. bjp has no shame. they learned from the more shameless congress leader sonia. sonia joined forces with dmk who her party accused of conspiring with terrorists to kill her husband. sonia hit another low when she joined with shared power who split from congress based on sonia's foreign origins.

bjp is becoming as shameless and power hungry as sonia.

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Post by Guest Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:37 am

truthbetold wrote:
Rashmun wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Cd
what i heard is that bjp will ditch tdp if it can gain 15 more seats from ysrc  and trs.
bjp will talk to tmc if there us a need and some chance of success.

BJP will talk to TMC even though TMC is calling Modi "butcher of Gujarat" and "architect of riots"? Does BJP have no shame?

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/mamata-banerjee-calls-narendra-modi-architect-of-riots-says-his-gyan-not-needed-515205?pfrom=home-lateststories

you are right. bjp has no shame. they learned from the more shameless congress leader sonia.  when sonia joined forces with dmk who her party accused of conspiring with terrorists to kill her husband. sonia hit another low when she joined with shared power who split from congress based on sonia's foreign origins.

bjp is becoming as shameless and power hungry as sonia.

So u agree that BJP's claim that it is a "party with a difference" is a lie?

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Post by truthbetold Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:47 am

Rash
bjp is a party with a difference but for reasons different than you are thinking of.

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Post by Ponniyin Selvan Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:03 pm

truthbetold wrote:I think it is too late to lie to hurt JJ.  I think TN is done.  She is just finishing her last few days as CM.

Half your statement is right. JJ's wealth case is nearing completion and her conviction and sentencing is almost certain. In this case the onus is on her to prove how she acquired wealth (that amounts to Rs 5000 crore in today's value) when her salary was Rs 1 per month during the term. With the recent SC ruling, any member is disqualified immediately on conviction. 

So you are right in saying that she is finishing her last few days as CM.

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Post by truthbetold Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:07 pm

Ps
i meant she is going to 7 race course, Delhi.
this is nice twist to the election story.

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Post by Ponniyin Selvan Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:12 pm

truthbetold wrote:Ps
i meant she is going to 7 race course, Delhi.
this is nice twist to the election story.

She is not going anywhere , with some luck she can escape jail. But it is more likely that she will meet Lalu's fate.

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