truthbetold wrote:What could be behind this event?

Is it an intentional US strike? Based on pros and cons, that seems like a very small probability.

Is it a unintentional strike? That is the official story. Looks like the highest probability.

Is it a Pak conspiracy to provoke US attack and to use that as an event to force US CIA drones out of Pak. Kayani seems to be quite upset with diplomatic messages sent to US after Osama killing. It is possible that ISI may have created a situation provoking NATO action and put its own forces in firing line. After the fact, Pak has local sympathy to challenge US. This is a far fetched story but only in Pakistan it could happen. I give it a low double digit possibility.

Only way for US to get out is to (a) Shut CIA drone base off or (b) Pay off Pak army in a huge way to continue the presence. Bad options for US.

One should always be suspicious of Kayani's motives for longer term. Is he building a case for Army take over or installation of chamcha govt.

In September 2010, Pakistan also shut the main land route for Nato supplies at Torkham for 11 days after accusing Nato of killing three Pakistani troops.

The border was reopened after the United States formally apologised and most commentators expect the latest crisis to be resolved similarly.

The fact that Pakistan also ordered the United States to leave the Shamsi air base, reportedly used as a hub for US drone strikes on militants, was also interpreted as a sign of Islamabad's relatively limited options.

Pakistan, which depends on billions of dollars in US aid, has made similar demands in the past and there have been reports that American personnel already left the secretive base, southwest of Islamabad, earlier this year.

Nato troops frequently carry out operations against Taliban insurgents close to the border with Pakistan, which in many places is unmarked, as Pakistani troops also wrestle with putting down a home grown Taliban insurgency.

Afghan and US officials have frequently accused Pakistani troops at worst of colluding with the Taliban or at best of standing by while insurgents fire across the border, often in clear sight of Pakistani border posts.