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538 forecast

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Post by garam-kuta Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:09 pm

but given nate silver's recent record, this forecast is as believable as any economic forecast from an "economist".

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

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Post by rawemotions Wed Jun 29, 2016 11:45 pm

garam-kuta wrote:but given nate silver's recent record, this forecast is as believable as any economic forecast from an "economist".

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Cool Site! 

He has given some background explanation on his  Polls Only and Polls Plus model
He is attempting to factor in the uncertainty in some manner. 
I did not completely understand the polls plus, where Economic aspects are being considered. Which aspects and how it is being factored was not clarified. 

It is unclear whether he is factoring in Sample sizes when he combines results from various Polls and whether he factors in the bias of those sponsoring the poll.

But it is an earnest attempt and seems credible.

It is a statistician's delight (for the challenge in modeling it).

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