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That post convention bump

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That post convention bump Empty That post convention bump

Post by Hellsangel Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:17 am

Too bad Shrillery doesn't see one.
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Post by Idéfix Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:16 pm

This may be too bad... http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-bounce-appears-bigger-than-trumps/
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Post by Hellsangel Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:23 pm

Yeah with all those ifs and buts in Nate Silver's commentary  and Reuters changing its polling methodology. Kind of like the great glut admin's statistics Smile

And then all the Libby media quickly moving on unlike the time they lingered with Trump's lead.
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Post by Idéfix Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:53 pm

The post-convention bounce
Poll
Before both conventions
After GOP convention
After both conventions
CNN/ORC Clinton +7 Trump +3 Clinton +9
NBC News/SurveyMonkey Clinton +1 Clinton +1 Clinton +8
CBS News Tie Tie Clinton +7
HuffPost Pollster average Clinton +3.5 Clinton +1.2 Clinton +4.9
RCP average Clinton +3.2 Trump +0.9 Clinton +3.9
Morning Consult Clinton +2 Trump +4 Clinton +3

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/how-big-is-hillary-clintons-convention-bounce-226545
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Post by Hellsangel Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:56 pm

Yeah. Them the Democrats have nothing to worry about.
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Post by Idéfix Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:03 pm

Hellsangel wrote:Yeah. Them the Democrats have nothing to worry about.
They have plenty to worry about, but not getting a convention bump isn't one of those things. Sorry about the disappointment.
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Post by Hellsangel Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:05 pm

Idéfix wrote:
Hellsangel wrote:Yeah. Them the Democrats have nothing to worry about.
They have plenty to worry about, but not getting a convention bump isn't one of those things. Sorry about the disappointment.

Oh really? What do they have to worry about?
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Post by Idéfix Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:36 pm

Now is that what you call a convention bump?

That post convention bump Screen10


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Post by Hellsangel Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:45 pm

I think Democrats should celebrate.

http://www.worldpoliticus.com/not-fast-hillary-turns-bump-polls-may-flat-cooked-part-medias-agenda-trump/
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Post by Idéfix Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:50 pm

Yeah, unskew them polls! It worked great in 2012.
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Post by Hellsangel Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:51 pm

Idéfix wrote:Yeah, unskew them polls! It worked great in 2012.

Oh and Nate Silverboy so accurately predicted the Republican primary.
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Post by Idéfix Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:01 pm

Hellsangel wrote:
Idéfix wrote:Yeah, unskew them polls! It worked great in 2012.

Oh and Nate Silverboy so accurately predicted the Republican primary.
The difference between Nate Silver and the crazy conspiracy-theory poll-unskewers is this. When Silver got it wrong, he owned his screw up. When the unskewers got it wrong, they blamed that old imaginary problem, voter fraud!
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