Nate Silver

by Hellsangel Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:29 am

( and management consultants) should eat crow.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

by southindian Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:04 am

Nate Silver failed miserably... groped by less-educated-white voters in USA.

by silvermani Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:32 am

IBD poll is the real deal. 538 was a dud.

by Propagandhi711 Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:56 am

southindian wrote:Nate Silver failed miserably... groped by less-educated-white voters in USA.

keep repeating this truism and one day you'll be right.

by southindian Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:00 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:
southindian wrote:Nate Silver failed miserably... groped by less-educated-white voters in USA.

keep repeating this truism and one day you'll be right.

In addition to less-educated-whites, 51% young white-women voted for Trump, so pussy-grabbing may become presidential.

Let me see if I hear one sexual misconduct complaint from god-fearing, values-driven Republicans.

President Trump may punish women going for abortions, so where will Texans, Arizonans, Floridians will be going for their next abortion.

by Guest Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:01 pm

southindian wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:
southindian wrote:Nate Silver failed miserably... groped by less-educated-white voters in USA.

keep repeating this truism and one day you'll be right.
In addition to less-educated-whites, 51% young white-women voted for Trump, so pussy-grabbing may become presidential.

Let me see if I hear one sexual misconduct complaint from god-fearing, values-driven Republicans.

President Trump may punish women going for abortions, so where will Texans, Arizonans, Floridians will be going for abortion.

give it a rest.

by Hellsangel Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:34 pm

Seems like you agree with Trump here:

If we don't decide the religion of terrorists,
then soon someday, the terrorists will decide our religion.

by southindian Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:54 pm

Hellsangel wrote:Seems like you agree with Trump here:

If we don't decide the religion of terrorists,
then soon someday, the terrorists will decide our religion.

I'm happy Trump agrees with me on this much like many Democrats.

I'm also a Democrat who is a fiscal conservative and for protecting US borders. As Democrat I do not want a ban on Muslims entering USA.

I still wanted a US president who does not lie despite having video and audio proof. Someone who is not thin-skinned, without sexual misconduct and does not bully others... much like what you would teach to a child.

Your Presidential winner is a loser, not a role model for children (anyone) around you.... and we know it.

by Guest Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:05 pm

southindian wrote:
Hellsangel wrote:Seems like you agree with Trump here:

If we don't decide the religion of terrorists,
then soon someday, the terrorists will decide our religion.
I'm happy Trump agrees with me on this much like many Democrats.

I'm also a Democrat who is a fiscal conservative and for protecting US borders. As Democrat I do not want a ban on Muslims entering USA.

I still wanted a US president who does not lie despite having video and audio proof. Someone who is not thin-skinned, without sexual misconduct and does not bully others... much like what you would teach to a child.

Your Presidential winner is a loser, not a role model for children (anyone) around you.... and we know it.

give it a rest.

by Idéfix Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:41 pm

Nate Silver did a decent job. Most other pollsters and models were projecting a 90% of higher probability for a Clinton victory. In fact, Trump insiders were saying things like "it will take a miracle for us to win FL" -- much less win the electoral college. As late as yesterday morning. And people on the left were ridiculing Nate for being too conservative and trying to hedge his bets.

While I can understand the glee and schadenfreude that the right is experiencing this morning, let us not forget that nobody -- not even Trump -- expected to win this thing as of yesterday afternoon. They had a small probability of winning and they knew it, and Nate Silver called it. A 32% probability is like playing Russian roulette with two bullets in the revolver. Not exactly a low-probability chance that any sane person would take.

by MaxEntropy_Man Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:21 pm

Idéfix wrote:Nate Silver did a decent job. Most other pollsters and models were projecting a 90% of higher probability for a Clinton victory. In fact, Trump insiders were saying things like "it will take a miracle for us to win FL" -- much less win the electoral college. As late as yesterday morning. And people on the left were ridiculing Nate for being too conservative and trying to hedge his bets.

While I can understand the glee and schadenfreude that the right is experiencing this morning, let us not forget that nobody -- not even Trump -- expected to win this thing as of yesterday afternoon. They had a small probability of winning and they knew it, and Nate Silver called it. A 32% probability is like playing Russian roulette with two bullets in the revolver. Not exactly a low-probability chance that any sane person would take.

I was one of them.

by Guest Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:36 pm

silvermani wrote:IBD poll is the real deal. 538 was a dud.

correct. Idiotic Nate had earlier written that the IBD poll (which correctly predicted this general election) "is not trustworthy". See http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy/

Nate has lost all credibility now, first after getting the republican primaries wrong, and then getting the general election wrong.

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