The beginning of the end for the middle-east?????

by Vakavaka Pakapaka Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:47 pm

.....Gradually, gasoline automobiles will be phased out across the globe and eventually the Saudis will wind up hugging their camels. Monomania and piece will start winding down......

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/news/uk-bans-gasoline-diesel-engines-2040/index.html

https://image.shutterstock.com/z/stock-photo-traditional-arab-man-kissing-and-hugging-a-baby-camel-in-wadi-rum-desert-jordan-13529617.jpg

by silvermani Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:28 pm

Yeah, this is very big news! I wonder how practical it is to implement.

by garam_kuta Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:36 pm

first time I watched the movie years ago, I was stunned. here at 0:45.

by Idéfix Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:51 pm

This is a great idea. I hope more countries follow.

Electric cars are very practical and comfortable. I have been driving one for over two years. Now I don't like the in-cabin experience of driving a gas car because of the engine noise. The added convenience of access to carpool lanes and reserved parking in many places makes it a no-brainer for me.

by Bittu Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:20 pm

silvermani wrote:Yeah, this is very big news! I wonder how practical it is to implement.

You guys live under a rock? At this point it should be common knowledge that ALLLLLLLLLLL cars/trucks on the planet are headed in this direction. No gas no diesel. Electric and possibly some other renewable/green energy source. Won't be surprised to see hybrid cars that run on electric and solar. Like the whole car body will be sculpted from super efficient solar panels that draw energy from the faintest light source...

GO TSLA!

To answer OP, ya the middle east is pretty much effed. Don't know how they can reinvent themselves. Venezuela's economy is petroleum based and the whole country is already in the shitter.

by Propagandhi711 Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:39 pm

ppl vastly underestimate the speed of technology adaptation. GSM technology is like 25-27 yrs old and was supposed to die out like 17 yrs ago but it's still going strong in most parts of the world. electric cars are like 0.001% of all cars sold in volume in 2017, how soon do you think gas engines will disappear? lucky if it happens in 50 yrs.

by Bittu Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:07 pm

Comparing cellular technology to electric cars....really? What are you going to replace GSM with, another wireless standard? What's the gain? Comparing that with the HUGE gain of going from gasoline powered cars to electric ones is the difference between night and day.

"GSM technology is like 25-27 yrs old and was supposed to die out like 17 yrs ago" - I don't think so.

As of 2014, GSM has become the de facto global standard for mobile communications – with over 90% market share, operating in over 219 countries and territories.

^{source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSM}

by Idéfix Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:30 am

Propagandhi711 wrote:ppl vastly underestimate the speed of technology adaptation. GSM technology is like 25-27 yrs old and was supposed to die out like 17 yrs ago but it's still going strong in most parts of the world. electric cars are like 0.001% of all cars sold in volume in 2017, how soon do you think gas engines will disappear? lucky if it happens in 50 yrs.

EVs now account for just over 1% of all cars sold in the US. In some developed countries like Norway and Denmark they account for a larger fraction. If you look into how new technologies get adopted, you will see that the curve really takes off around the 2-3% mark. It takes about as long to get from 2.5% to 20% as it took to get from 0 to 2.5%, and then just as much time from 20% to 50%. At current growth rates, EVs will get to 2-3% in a couple of years -- the number of $1,000 deposits already placed on the Tesla Model 3 is more than 2% of annual US car sales. EVs started at 0% about 10 years ago, so it should take about 20 years before they outsell gas cars.

Horses didn't quite go extinct, we can still buy them and use them to get around, and the ecosystem for keeping a horse is still around. But it is more relatively more expensive because of lost economies of scale. Similarly, the IC engine will be around but will became relatively more expensive and it will be a hobby, not the primary mode of getting around in 20 years.

The market values TSLA more than GM. That may be a bit much, but I am still not selling my TSLA shares that I bought below 200.

by Propagandhi711 Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:33 pm

Idéfix wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:ppl vastly underestimate the speed of technology adaptation. GSM technology is like 25-27 yrs old and was supposed to die out like 17 yrs ago but it's still going strong in most parts of the world. electric cars are like 0.001% of all cars sold in volume in 2017, how soon do you think gas engines will disappear? lucky if it happens in 50 yrs.
EVs now account for just over 1% of all cars sold in the US. In some developed countries like Norway and Denmark they account for a larger fraction. If you look into how new technologies get adopted, you will see that the curve really takes off around the 2-3% mark. It takes about as long to get from 2.5% to 20% as it took to get from 0 to 2.5%, and then just as much time from 20% to 50%. At current growth rates, EVs will get to 2-3% in a couple of years -- the number of $1,000 deposits already placed on the Tesla Model 3 is more than 2% of annual US car sales. EVs started at 0% about 10 years ago, so it should take about 20 years before they outsell gas cars.

Horses didn't quite go extinct, we can still buy them and use them to get around, and the ecosystem for keeping a horse is still around. But it is more relatively more expensive because of lost economies of scale. Similarly, the IC engine will be around but will became relatively more expensive and it will be a hobby, not the primary mode of getting around in 20 years.

The market values TSLA more than GM. That may be a bit much, but I am still not selling my TSLA shares that I bought below 200.

US and nordic countries are not not going to be where most of the cars will be bought and sold in next 20 yrs.

edit: what EV car do you drive? tesla S?

by Idéfix Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:08 am

China: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2017/02/28/china-deploys-aggressive-mandates-to-stay-no-1-in-electric-vehicles/

India: http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/03/technology/future/india-electric-cars/index.html

Do I think these aggressive plans completely displace the IC engine? No. Do I think the majority of new cars sold in India and China in 2035 will not have an IC engine? Yes.

I drive a Mercedes Benz B class electric. Tesla drivetrain at less than half the price, but half the range as well. My commute is less than 15 miles each way so 100 miles in range is good for me.

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