obama and same sex marriage

by Impedimenta Wed May 09, 2012 10:19 pm

sly! risky? ya, right!

by Kris Wed May 09, 2012 10:28 pm

If the election is close, this could give him a slight adavantage. If the economy tanks in the next few months, won't make a difference.

by Idéfix Wed May 09, 2012 10:44 pm

Impedimenta wrote:sly! risky? ya, right!

Of course it is risky. It is going to cost him votes in North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and other swing states. It will also energize young people; as a straight young person on the radio said: "I was going to support him, but now I am going to fight for him." I think Obama is proving himself to be a calculated risk-taker, like he did with the Osama raid.

by Kris Wed May 09, 2012 10:53 pm

panini press wrote:
Impedimenta wrote:sly! risky? ya, right!
Of course it is risky. It is going to cost him votes in North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and other swing states. It will also energize young people; as a straight young person on the radio said: "I was going to support him, but now I am going to fight for him." I think Obama is proving himself to be a calculated risk-taker, like he did with the Osama raid.

>>>>I think the calculus behind this was as follows:

Those in the Obama camp already are not going to vote Romney, even if they are personally opposed to gay marriage. On the other hand, apathetic types who were not going to vote, many of whom are part of the younger demographic and socially liberal, may just come in because of this.I think this will put him slightly ahead, but the 900 lb gorilla is going to be the economy. That will be the central issue this election.

by Idéfix Wed May 09, 2012 10:58 pm

Kris wrote:
panini press wrote:
Impedimenta wrote:sly! risky? ya, right!
Of course it is risky. It is going to cost him votes in North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and other swing states. It will also energize young people; as a straight young person on the radio said: "I was going to support him, but now I am going to fight for him." I think Obama is proving himself to be a calculated risk-taker, like he did with the Osama raid.

>>>>I think the calculus behind this was as follows:

Those in the Obama camp already are not going to vote Romney, even if they are personally opposed to gay marriage. On the other hand, apathetic types who were not going to vote, many of whom are part of the younger demographic and socially liberal, may just come in because of this.I think this will put him slightly ahead, but the 900 lb gorilla is going to be the economy. That will be the central issue this election.

You are right on the economy part: that's what is going to decide this election. But if the economy is middling -- doesn't get better or worse -- then it becomes an issue of turnout. Historically, conservative Christians have turned out in high numbers when same-sex marriage was on the ballot (e.g. state initiatives in 2004) which ended up benefiting GOP candidates up and down the ticket. The GOP will seek to repeat that magic this time, citing Obama's support for same-sex marriage. I am not sure if the DOMA appeal is on the Supreme Court docket this season, but if that case gets ruled on in the summer, same-sex marriage may become a bigger issue than it is -- which has the potential to hurt Obama in the swing states.

by Idéfix Wed May 09, 2012 11:10 pm

I looked up the DOMA legal challenges. Looks like the main challenge is being heard by the First Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston. So this won't see a Supreme Court ruling this season. But it is quite likely that the Court of Appeals will hold a part of DOMA unconstitutional (the part that requires the federal government to not recognize same-sex marriages that are otherwise legal in the state they were contracted in). And that ruling is likely to come in this year. If that happens, I anticipate that the GOP will raise the temperature on "war on marriage" attacks on Obama.

by MaxEntropy_Man Wed May 09, 2012 11:24 pm

i wonder when the word "calculus" was re-purposed by the talking heads on CNN and elsewhere to mean calculation in the political context. i find it mildly irritating to pull words out of their original contexts and re-purpose them when there are perfectly good existing words which would have sufficed. what's wrong with "calculation" in this context?

by Kris Thu May 10, 2012 3:32 am

panini press wrote:I looked up the DOMA legal challenges. Looks like the main challenge is being heard by the First Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston. So this won't see a Supreme Court ruling this season. But it is quite likely that the Court of Appeals will hold a part of DOMA unconstitutional (the part that requires the federal government to not recognize same-sex marriages that are otherwise legal in the state they were contracted in). And that ruling is likely to come in this year. If that happens, I anticipate that the GOP will raise the temperature on "war on marriage" attacks on Obama.

>>>I think that's a given anyway. The point that the GOP would try to drum up support on that basis is valid, but here is what I meant in my previous post, but guess didn't complete the thought. The Obama camp is shrewd and knows that the draw potential from the formerly apathetic on the left side of the spectrum because of obama's statement would likely be higher than the new recruits to the anti obama cause on that count. There are plenty of the latter type, but they are already in the game. Remember the right is less apathetic than the left in general.There are enough causes already that have drawn the anti obama crowd into the fray (an example, the "birthers"). So, this by itself is not going to bring that much more.

by Kris Thu May 10, 2012 3:34 am

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:i wonder when the word "calculus" was re-purposed by the talking heads on CNN and elsewhere to mean calculation in the political context. i find it mildly irritating to pull words out of their original contexts and re-purpose them when there are perfectly good existing words which would have sufficed. what's wrong with "calculation" in this context?

>>> No idea when it started or who started it. Seems like English just evolves that way.

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