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truthbetold
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Propagandhi711
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Post by Propagandhi711 Fri May 18, 2012 2:24 pm

all you chatterbox touch-feely, social networking aunties should buy that stock. it's a mere 40 dollars now

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Post by harharmahadev Fri May 18, 2012 3:06 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:all you chatterbox touch-feely, social networking aunties should buy that stock. it's a mere 40 dollars now



Buy it to trade for the next 7 days. It might touch $50 in 7 days and then it will crash.

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Post by Propagandhi711 Fri May 18, 2012 3:19 pm

thanks swami - any clarity in your crystal ball on what the temperature in kansas city might be on 05/29?

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Post by truthbetold Fri May 18, 2012 7:34 pm

While facebook has potential how long will it take to into its ipo price? Do you see face book mgmt finding ideas to EARN money to get p/e to a reasonable level?

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Post by Idéfix Fri May 18, 2012 9:55 pm

If anything, Facebook's existing revenue stream is threatened. May be they have some big ideas in the works that will correct it, but I don't see it. What I can see is this: first, more and more people are experiencing Facebook fatigue. In my own circle of friends, I see interest dropping off. Second, more and more Facebook activity is moving to mobile phones; it is harder to make money off of ads on smartphones than it is on the regular web, because of screen sizes and the irritation factor when processing speeds and bandwidths lower. Third, the userbase is slowly but surely shifting towards poorer countries than the US, while the US market itself is near saturated for Facebook. You can't make as much money per capita from Indian users as you can from American users. Put it all together, and I don't see how the company becomes more profitable, not less, over the next 3-5 years.
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Post by truthbetold Fri May 18, 2012 11:06 pm

panini press wrote:If anything, Facebook's existing revenue stream is threatened."

A counter I heard is that google also took a while to completely realize its ability to monetize and Facebook is a different type of product (social media). They ignore to mention Google's growth took place in internet's infancy.


"May be they have some big ideas in the works that will correct it, but I don't see it. What I can see is this: first, more and more people are experiencing Facebook fatigue. In my own circle of friends, I see interest dropping off. "

In addition teenagers can chat a whole lot more than they can buy.

"Second, more and more Facebook activity is moving to mobile phones; it is harder to make money off of ads on smartphones than it is on the regular web, because of screen sizes and the irritation factor when processing speeds and bandwidths lower."

"Third, the userbase is slowly but surely shifting towards poorer countries than the US, while the US market itself is near saturated for Facebook. You can't make as much money per capita from Indian users as you can from American users. Put it all together, and I don't see how the company becomes more profitable, not less, over the next 3-5 years.
"

This billion is not a homogenous crowd. Economically it may mean 200 millions at best. Then there are part timers who rarely visit the site.

Face book as a business may survive and continue to thrive. But it may take a very long time to reach the 100 billion valuation worthyness. Amazon after 10 plus years is still struggling with high p/e. So mark z will be fine. investor may be left with holding the bag.

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Post by truthbetold Fri May 18, 2012 11:10 pm

other possible examples to consider: AOL, Yahoo and Netscape. where are they now?

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Post by Kris Fri May 18, 2012 11:15 pm

panini press wrote:If anything, Facebook's existing revenue stream is threatened. May be they have some big ideas in the works that will correct it, but I don't see it. What I can see is this: first, more and more people are experiencing Facebook fatigue. In my own circle of friends, I see interest dropping off. Second, more and more Facebook activity is moving to mobile phones; it is harder to make money off of ads on smartphones than it is on the regular web, because of screen sizes and the irritation factor when processing speeds and bandwidths lower. Third, the userbase is slowly but surely shifting towards poorer countries than the US, while the US market itself is near saturated for Facebook. You can't make as much money per capita from Indian users as you can from American users. Put it all together, and I don't see how the company becomes more profitable, not less, over the next 3-5 years.

>>>Yeah, the monetization models do seem problematic. I don't see long term value here. My wife bought some and our intent is getting out in a few days or a couple of weeks at best.

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Post by Propagandhi711 Sat May 19, 2012 3:26 pm

1. valuation for the stock is extremely rich — about 28X sales, and 100X earnings (apple is 3X sales and 10X earnings —not counting the incredible 100 billion in cash)
2. anyone who clicks on a like button is counted as a monthly user, making that 900 million monthly user number grossly exaggerated. underground numbers put real users as about 150 million.
3. it does a very poor job monetizing users, getting a mere $5 versus $30 for google and $144 for netflix.
4. mobile offerings have even more limited engagement than web based.
5. zero penetration in China
6. users trust the ferretfaced jewish fella even less than they trust google, microsoft etc with good reason.

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Post by nevada Tue May 22, 2012 3:19 pm

Zuckerberg made suckers out of average Joes and Madoff with their money!

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Post by nevada Tue May 29, 2012 3:20 pm

Anyone tempted to buy here below 29? A drop like this and the extreme pessimism around the stock might have ignited a short squeeze rally if FB weren't a bloated pig with the highest capitalization of any IPO in history.

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Post by Idéfix Tue May 29, 2012 3:28 pm

nevada wrote:Anyone tempted to buy here below 29? A drop like this and the extreme pessimism around the stock might have ignited a short squeeze rally if FB weren't a bloated pig with the highest capitalization of any IPO in history.
I am not touching this in the double digits. I may be interested once its below $10.
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Post by harharmahadev Wed May 30, 2012 9:43 am

I was wrong about the stock touching $50 in the short term...I guess the exuberance fizzled out much ahead of what I had anticipated. But I was dead on right about the stock crashing!!

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Post by Mr. T Wed May 30, 2012 10:42 am

People invest more out of hype then actual analysis nowadays....and yet this one tanks...go figure..

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