Is Advani acting in the interest of BJP, Democracy or even himself?!!

by smArtha Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:45 am

BJP - needs a strong leader that has the support of the cadre at all levels as well as a leader that has higher people support than others in its fold.
Democracy - Party based democracy justifies election of Leader that has the support of rank and file.
Self Interest - By keeping mum now and even playing just a mentor role, Advani will retain chances of being the PM - should BJP not be in the driving seat to call all shots post elections - or become their natural choice for President of India, if Modi becomes the PM with sufficient majority.

Whichever way I look at this, LK Advani's dissidence doesn't make any sense to me.

by truthbetold Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:08 pm

SMartha,
are you suggesting that you know what is good for advani better than advani himself? is that your anxiousness speaking?

by Rishi Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:08 pm

LK Advani is a fool.

What is he compalining about?

He is the one who started the Ayodhya business.

by smArtha Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:16 pm

truthbetold wrote:SMartha,
are you suggesting that you know what is good for advani better than advani himself? is that your anxiousness speaking?

Anxiousness?! About what? It is a given that BJP will be led by Modi in the 2014 election. So what is there to be anxious about?!!

I'm expecting some SuCHers like yourself to know more truths than myself and hoping they'd fill me in with the same.

by Idéfix Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:50 pm

Perhaps he has doubts about Modi's suitability for the job, or his ability to lead the party to victory. At his age, he can hardly want the PM job for himself.

by Vakavaka Pakapaka Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:22 pm

This is typical of Advani. Vajpayee was chosen over him even though he did the hard work to build the party. The reality is - Advani doesn't have leadership qualities. I remember him breaking down, when Burkha was interviewing him a few years ago, on a very minor issue! He thinks that he still has a chance to be the PM. If so, he is more senile than he realizes.

I agree with you. He actively destroyed his own chances of salvaging his legacy.

by smArtha Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:35 pm

Idéfix wrote:Perhaps he has doubts about Modi's suitability for the job, or his ability to lead the party to victory. At his age, he can hardly want the PM job for himself.

If we go by gossip mills, an example below, PM aspirations haven't left him. Besides, even at this age he is fit and healthy enough to do the job for a good couple of years.
http://www.greatandhra.com/politics/gossip/advani-sought-naidu-help-49715.html

Modi had already proven his suitability from an Administrative stand point. If he can run a coalition government or not is what is left for debate now and validation in future.

Regarding leading the party to secure a higher MP count - going by the support in the party rank and file and the electorate, he has the best chances compared to all other leaders within BJP including LKA himself.

by Petrichor Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:38 pm

LK is shrewd...if and when bjp needs a hail mary pass, LK is the backstop - they need the ability to flip it at the eleventh hour.

by Idéfix Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:06 pm

smArtha wrote:Modi had already proven his suitability from an Administrative stand point. If he can run a coalition government or not is what is left for debate now and validation in future.

Modi may have proven his administrative ability to your satisfaction, but other people, including Advani, are well within their rights to be skeptical on that count. I for one don't believe Modi is fit to be PM.

smArtha wrote:Regarding leading the party to secure a higher MP count - going by the support in the party rank and file and the electorate, he has the best chances compared to all other leaders within BJP including LKA himself.

That is in doubt too. Modi is a polarizing figure, and he may well alienate moderate voters, while only securing those voters who would have voted for BJP anyway regardless of its candidate for PM.

by Propagandhi711 Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:27 pm

Idéfix wrote:
smArtha wrote:Modi had already proven his suitability from an Administrative stand point. If he can run a coalition government or not is what is left for debate now and validation in future.
Modi may have proven his administrative ability to your satisfaction, but other people, including Advani, are well within their rights to be skeptical on that count. I for one don't believe Modi is fit to be PM.

now would be a good time to whip out those bar charts, gantt charts, pie charts, hotdog charts....

by smArtha Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:31 pm

Idéfix wrote:Modi may have proven his administrative ability to your satisfaction, but other people, including Advani, are well within their rights to be skeptical on that count. I for one don't believe Modi is fit to be PM.

That is in doubt too. Modi is a polarizing figure, and he may well alienate moderate voters, while only securing those voters who would have voted for BJP anyway regardless of its candidate for PM.

Who else, within the current BJP leadership, according to you, LKA and these 'other people', rank better than Modi on the twin counts of proven administrative abilities and cadre+people support?!!

I can say with sufficient confidence that the number of voters who would vote for BJP anyway is far less than those that would vote for Cong even after 2 terms of its 'misrule'. Not having a good 15-20% pan Indian electorate that'd vote for it come what may is the problem BJP never addressed. With Modi it is definitely looking like their urban middle class support may translate to some votes. Hence, he is their best bet to increase seat count. Now if that increase will be 10 or 100 seats is a different issue.

by Idéfix Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:32 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
smArtha wrote:Modi had already proven his suitability from an Administrative stand point. If he can run a coalition government or not is what is left for debate now and validation in future.
Modi may have proven his administrative ability to your satisfaction, but other people, including Advani, are well within their rights to be skeptical on that count. I for one don't believe Modi is fit to be PM.
now would be a good time to whip out those bar charts, gantt charts, pie charts, hotdog charts....

I guess one requirement for being an ardent Modi supporter is: if available data run counter to your preexisting views, then mock the data and don't question your preexisting views.

by Idéfix Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:51 pm

smArtha wrote:Who else, within the current BJP leadership, according to you, LKA and these 'other people', rank better than Modi on the twin counts of proven administrative abilities and cadre+people support?!!

LKA may think he himself is more qualified than Modi. I disagree with him. Sushma Swaraj, and that Chauhan fellow in Madhya Pradesh may also have similar opinions about themselves. I would be more inclined to support them, on account of their relative youth compared to LKA.

smArtha wrote:Not having a good 15-20% pan Indian electorate that'd vote for it come what may is the problem BJP never addressed.

I don't know what the percentages are, but Hindutvawadis make up a sizable chunk of the Indian electorate, and they will always vote for the BJP, because they have no other political voice.

Let me illustrate this. Imagine an idealized polity in a two-party election as a continuum from extreme left to extreme right. Each little - below represents 5% of the voting population, and they are sorted in order of their political views. That is, the leftmost - represents the 5% of voters with the most extreme leftist views.

Code:: L--------------------R

Now, let us say people are rational voters and always vote for whoever is nearest to them on this ideological scale.

Code:: L--------------------R C B

Let B be the ideological position taken by BJP, and C the position taken by Congress. Now, in this model, everybody to the left of C has no choice other than C, and everybody to the right of B has no choice other than B. Both parties compete over the voters between points B and C. So both B and C have "guaranteed" 45% voteshare. The remaining 10% decide who wins.

Now, if B moves to the right by two notches and C remains where it is:

Code:: L--------------------R C B

Now, BJP's "guaranteed" voteshare is drops to 35%, while Congress's "guaranteed" voteshare remains 45%. They both now fight over 20% of the electorate. For about half of that "in play" electorate, their position is closer to Congress than BJP -- so Congress gets 55% and BJP 45%.

Modi's elevation moves the party to the right, and risks ceding some of the middle ground to Congress. Elections are often decided by those in the middle. BJP supporters should hope that this is not one of those elections.

smArtha wrote:With Modi it is definitely looking like their urban middle class support may translate to some votes. Hence, he is their best bet to increase seat count. Now if that increase will be 10 or 100 seats is a different issue.

Urban middle class does not control more than 20 seats in Lok Sabha. Most of the seats in India are decided by the poor. Many middle class people don't even bother to vote.

by smArtha Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:46 pm

Idéfix wrote:LKA may think he himself is more qualified than Modi. I disagree with him. Sushma Swaraj and that Chauhan fellow in Madhya Pradesh may also have similar opinions about themselves. I would be more inclined to support them, on account of their relative youth compared to LKA.

Never got the multi-quote thing working from any of my browsers. So, I'll stick to the single quote style and hence will post response as mutliple posts.

Let's assume Sushma is as popular mass+cadre wise but she loses on Administrative experience
And assume Chauhan is a equal or better administrator but he has no cadre+mass support
So that leaves just LKA and that defaulting is precisely what LKA is hoping for and hence his request to defer the choice, if possible till the election outcome.

by smArtha Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:57 pm

Idéfix wrote:
smArtha wrote:Not having a good 15-20% pan Indian electorate that'd vote for it come what may is the problem BJP never addressed.
I don't know what the percentages are, but Hindutvawadis make up a sizable chunk of the Indian electorate, and they will always vote for the BJP, because they have no other political voice.

Let me illustrate this. Imagine an idealized polity in a two-party election as a continuum from extreme left to extreme right. Each little - below represents 5% of the voting population, and they are sorted in order of their political views. That is, the leftmost - represents the 5% of voters with the most extreme leftist views.

Code:
L--------------------R
Now, let us say people are rational voters and always vote for whoever is nearest to them on this ideological scale.

Code:
L--------------------R C B
Let B be the ideological position taken by BJP, and C the position taken by Congress. Now, in this model, everybody to the left of C has no choice other than C, and everybody to the right of B has no choice other than B. Both parties compete over the voters between points B and C. So both B and C have "guaranteed" 45% voteshare. The remaining 10% decide who wins.

Now, if B moves to the right by two notches and C remains where it is:
Code:
L--------------------R C B
Now, BJP's "guaranteed" voteshare is drops to 35%, while Congress's "guaranteed" voteshare remains 45%. They both now fight over 20% of the electorate. For about half of that "in play" electorate, their position is closer to Congress than BJP -- so Congress gets 55% and BJP 45%.

Modi's elevation moves the party to the right, and risks ceding some of the middle ground to Congress. Elections are often decided by those in the middle. BJP supporters should hope that this is not one of those elections.

You are the math and stats guru on this forum. I don't have to point to you that your model assumes a significantly continuous and uniform distribution of electorate across the L-R spectrum or even some bell curve variation that peaks at the centre. And this is not the case with the Indian electorate. It is true that over the last two decades there is shift of the curve to the Right from the Left but the Indian electorate is still largely on the Left of the Centre and which is why most parties are coming up in that space. This is also true of the Indian liberal or so called moderates.. they are not the near centre but still left of centre.
The easiest way to verify my guesstimate of BJP not having as much loyal vote base as Congress is to look at the poll data from the election commission for the last two decades.. and you'll see that even in the years they were routed Congress preserved more of their loyal voters than BJP.

by Idéfix Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:08 pm

smArtha wrote:The easiest way to verify my guesstimate of BJP not having as much loyal vote base as Congress is to look at the poll data from the election commission for the last two decades.. and you'll see that even in the years they were routed Congress preserved more of their loyal voters than BJP.

Here are the percentage of total votes cast that INC and BJP attracted in recent general elections:

Party	1991	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
INC	35.66%	28.80%	25.82%	28.30%	26.53%	28.55%
BJP	20.04%	20.29%	25.59%	23.75%	22.16%	18.80%

As you can see, BJP has consistently held at least 18% of the vote. In fact, you see more fluctuation in Congress's vote share, from 36% to 26%, than in BJP's share from 19% to 26%.

Source: Wikipedia pages on Indian general elections, start here and track your way back: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2009

by truthbetold Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:47 pm

Idefix,
Are your numbers correct for 1999?
Smartha,
nda had a great opportunity in 2014 if it had remained United with nitish kumar leading, with a tilt to center from right. Congress really messed up these days. With nitish, nda could have gathered regional leaders and created a nearly nationwide two front fight.
India and its leaders screw up again and again and keep India in perpetual self inflicted pain. This time it is Modi 's unholy desire to run India.

by Vakavaka Pakapaka Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:17 am

Idéfix wrote:
smArtha wrote:The easiest way to verify my guesstimate of BJP not having as much loyal vote base as Congress is to look at the poll data from the election commission for the last two decades.. and you'll see that even in the years they were routed Congress preserved more of their loyal voters than BJP.
Here are the percentage of total votes cast that INC and BJP attracted in recent general elections:

Party 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
INC 35.66% 28.80% 25.82% 28.30% 26.53% 28.55%
BJP 20.04% 20.29% 25.59% 23.75% 22.16% 18.80%
As you can see, BJP has consistently held at least 18% of the vote. In fact, you see more fluctuation in Congress's vote share, from 36% to 26%, than in BJP's share from 19% to 26%.

Source: Wikipedia pages on Indian general elections, start here and track your way back: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2009

Hmm... Interesting chart. So, Advani helped BJP in 2009 and should continue to "help" it again in 2014!!! If you include INC's vote share prior to 1991, you will see the real trend (and why many CONmen became ex-CONwallahs and floated new parties and why movies started showing CONwallahs as CONartists).

by Idéfix Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:10 pm

truthbetold wrote:Idefix,
Are your numbers correct for 1999?

Yes, see here under BJP and INC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_1999#Results_by_alliance

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:13 pm

Idéfix wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Idefix,
Are your numbers correct for 1999?
Yes, see here under BJP and INC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_1999#Results_by_alliance

So your point ? Congress will win in 2014 to save India from Communalists? ok..

2009 was 2000 political years ago.

by Idéfix Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:17 pm

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If you include INC's vote share prior to 1991, you will see the real trend (and why many CONmen became ex-CONwallahs and floated new parties and why movies started showing CONwallahs as CONartists).

True. That will only further weaken's Smartha's argument that Congress has a locked-up voteshare while BJP does not. If we go back to 1984, the first election after the modern BJP was founded, this is how the trend looks:

Party	1984	1989	1991	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
INC	49.01%	39.53%	35.66%	28.80%	25.82%	28.30%	26.53%	28.55%
BJP	7.74%	11.36%	20.04%	20.29%	25.59%	23.75%	22.16%	18.80%

The main trend for Congress here is a decline from high 30s to high 20s; the main trend for BJP is a growth from less than 10% to the low 20s, with its first dip below 20% in the 2009 election. Advani was at the helm both during the rise from 8% to 20%+, and the fall from low 20s to 19%.

by Idéfix Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:21 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Idefix,
Are your numbers correct for 1999?
Yes, see here under BJP and INC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_1999#Results_by_alliance
So your point ? Congress will win in 2014 to save India from Communalists? ok..

2009 was 2000 political years ago.

My point was to answer a question TBT asked. I am amused if that upset you.

Since you already sound worried, I will make another point. It is interesting that even in the elections that brought the BJP to power at the center (1998 and 1999), it polled fewer votes than INC. This illustrates that what brought the BJP to power was the ability to add to its mid-20s voteshare with that of its allies to win a majority of seats between them. That was the Vajpayee formula of the late '90s. I don't know if Modi will be able to either repeat that formula, or bring BJP up on its own merits to exceed INC's voteshare for the first time in history. He needs to do at least one of those things if he wants to be PM. I doubt he can do either.

by Vakavaka Pakapaka Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:06 pm

Idéfix wrote:
Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If you include INC's vote share prior to 1991, you will see the real trend (and why many CONmen became ex-CONwallahs and floated new parties and why movies started showing CONwallahs as CONartists).
True. That will only further weaken's Smartha's argument that Congress has a locked-up voteshare while BJP does not. If we go back to 1984, the first election after the modern BJP was founded, this is how the trend looks:

Party 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
INC 49.01% 39.53% 35.66% 28.80% 25.82% 28.30% 26.53% 28.55%
BJP 7.74% 11.36% 20.04% 20.29% 25.59% 23.75% 22.16% 18.80%

The main trend for Congress here is a decline from high 30s to high 20s; the main trend for BJP is a growth from less than 10% to the low 20s, with its first dip below 20% in the 2009 election. Advani was at the helm both during the rise from 8% to 20%+, and the fall from low 20s to 19%.

It is true that Advani built the party and his yatra/Ayodhya helped BJP in the past. Sensing shifts in societal priorities, he tried to change his image with his Jinnah-philia but that went nowhere. Post-2009, he is more of a liability to BJP. The secular/communal debate belongs to the past. Even Muslims are moving on - they want education, jobs, etc. The youth in India have a positive outlook. If CONs and BJP stick to their old games, they both will be sorry. Modi may not succeed in projecting himself as secular but he may convince the people that he can revive the economy and address security concerns. CONs have the added burden of projecting a useless fellow - Rahul - as their PM candidate. Perhaps, the recent populist measures may help CONs but the people will slowly start seeing their impact on the economy and commodity' prices.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:32 pm

Idéfix wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Idefix,
Are your numbers correct for 1999?
Yes, see here under BJP and INC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_1999#Results_by_alliance
So your point ? Congress will win in 2014 to save India from Communalists? ok..

2009 was 2000 political years ago.
My point was to answer a question TBT asked. I am amused if that upset you.

Since you already sound worried, I will make another point. It is interesting that even in the elections that brought the BJP to power at the center (1998 and 1999), it polled fewer votes than INC. This illustrates that what brought the BJP to power was the ability to add to its mid-20s voteshare with that of its allies to win a majority of seats between them. That was the Vajpayee formula of the late '90s. I don't know if Modi will be able to either repeat that formula, or bring BJP up on its own merits to exceed INC's voteshare for the first time in history. He needs to do at least one of those things if he wants to be PM. I doubt he can do either.

I am not upset and no reason to be upset - i gain nothing and lose nothing.

But, anyone who overly cites and relies on statistics is moving farther and farther away from reality - IMO.

by Rishi Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:54 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Idefix,
Are your numbers correct for 1999?
Yes, see here under BJP and INC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_1999#Results_by_alliance
So your point ? Congress will win in 2014 to save India from Communalists? ok..

2009 was 2000 political years ago.
My point was to answer a question TBT asked. I am amused if that upset you.

Since you already sound worried, I will make another point. It is interesting that even in the elections that brought the BJP to power at the center (1998 and 1999), it polled fewer votes than INC. This illustrates that what brought the BJP to power was the ability to add to its mid-20s voteshare with that of its allies to win a majority of seats between them. That was the Vajpayee formula of the late '90s. I don't know if Modi will be able to either repeat that formula, or bring BJP up on its own merits to exceed INC's voteshare for the first time in history. He needs to do at least one of those things if he wants to be PM. I doubt he can do either.
I am not upset and no reason to be upset - i gain nothing and lose nothing.

But, anyone who overly cites and relies on statistics is moving farther and farther away from reality - IMO.

Touche!

Gore got more popular votes than Bush in 2000.

by smArtha Mon Sep 16, 2013 12:29 pm

Idéfix wrote:
smArtha wrote:The easiest way to verify my guesstimate of BJP not having as much loyal vote base as Congress is to look at the poll data from the election commission for the last two decades.. and you'll see that even in the years they were routed Congress preserved more of their loyal voters than BJP.
Here are the percentage of total votes cast that INC and BJP attracted in recent general elections:

Party 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
INC 35.66% 28.80% 25.82% 28.30% 26.53% 28.55%
BJP 20.04% 20.29% 25.59% 23.75% 22.16% 18.80%
As you can see, BJP has consistently held at least 18% of the vote. In fact, you see more fluctuation in Congress's vote share, from 36% to 26%, than in BJP's share from 19% to 26%.

Source: Wikipedia pages on Indian general elections, start here and track your way back: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2009

As you can see a staggering 39% for Congress, in 1989 when there was heavy anti-incumbency to Rajiv's rule due to scams, mandal and ramjanmabhoomi movements. BJP didn't manage this even during the time the tide is in its favor i.e. 1998/99. This is what proves that the loyal vote base for Cong is way higher than that of BJP. My guesstimate is it is around 10% for BJP and near 20% for Cong as of today. Was about 30% for Cong in 1989 and that progressively got dented by both BJP and other Regional parties. Even if you go by 2004, Cong has 28% and if you discount about 8-10% towards local situations - candidates, issues etc that still leaves them about 20% loyal base. For BJP if you do similar discounting they are in the 10% ball park.

by smArtha Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:54 pm

Idéfix wrote:
Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If you include INC's vote share prior to 1991, you will see the real trend (and why many CONmen became ex-CONwallahs and floated new parties and why movies started showing CONwallahs as CONartists).
True. That will only further weaken's Smartha's argument that Congress has a locked-up voteshare while BJP does not.

My argument was that BJP still doesn't have as much locked up vote share as does the Congress and it was more true in 1980s and still true even today. Unless BJP gets their locked up share to the 20% range it is not a competition for the Congress. If 'somehow' Modi can get to power and rule for the full-term at the center, he can accomplish that for BJP and that is the belief of his supporters as well as the fear of his opponents. Hence various forces are uniting on both sides to ensure that happens or doesn't.

by truthbetold Mon Sep 16, 2013 6:01 pm

For bjp to increase its base it needs to broaden its appeal. it cannot beat up on its base to increase its share of votes. vajpayee attracted more sections by his moderate views. modi gets base exited and may draw few additional middle class votes. however he cannot expand bjp 's appeal beyond Hindu masses of the heartland.

by truthbetold Mon Sep 16, 2013 6:06 pm

Bjp is missing a major opportunity by taking modi turn. congress is in shambles. a nitesh led nda would have a better path to victory. Nitesh could have either attracted or neutralized many regional leaders. moderate non congress govt could have solved some of the problems created by congress.

by smArtha Mon Sep 16, 2013 6:11 pm

truthbetold wrote:For bjp to increase its base it needs to broaden its appeal. it cannot beat up on its sll base to increase its share of votes. vajpayee attracted more sections by his moderate views. modi gets base exited and may draw few additional middle class votes. however he cannot expand bjp 's appeal beyond Hindu masses of the heartland.

BJP cadre and leaders seem to have a different view that he'll capture a bigger share of the younger generation and middle/upwardly mobile classes. The latter have so far stayed away from the election process and BJP's bet is that -like Obama- Modi will get them to the booths and thus increase their share. Even if he captures an additional 3-5% from this segment and another 3-5% comes as anti-incumbency that is a fairly large swing for them to reach the 200 figure. Besides the 20% minority vote share is being wooed by everyone from the Religious minority parties, Left parties, Regional parties and the Congress.

by smArtha Mon Sep 16, 2013 6:21 pm

truthbetold wrote:Bjp is missing a major opportunity by taking modi turn. congress is in shambles. a nitesh led nda would have a better path to victory. Nitesh could have either attracted or neutralized many regional leaders. moderate non congress govt could have solved some of the problems created by congress.

Nitish is not a mass leader that anyone outside Bihar can go to polls with. He can be the leader most parties will agree to, should a hung parliament situation arises. The strategy to go with Modi pre-polls is the right thing for BJP. Post-poll they can go with the situation and change their leader. If Modi's leadership doesn't fetch 200+ seats and other alliances, they'll be forced to a)forego the PM role or b)switch their PM candidate. But this is post poll results

by Idéfix Mon Sep 16, 2013 6:41 pm

smArtha wrote:BJP cadre and leaders seem to have a different view that he'll capture a bigger share of the younger generation and middle/upwardly mobile classes. The latter have so far stayed away from the election process and BJP's bet is that -like Obama- Modi will get them to the booths and thus increase their share. Even if he captures an additional 3-5% from this segment and another 3-5% comes as anti-incumbency that is a fairly large swing for them to reach the 200 figure. Besides the 20% minority vote share is being wooed by everyone from the Religious minority parties, Left parties, Regional parties and the Congress.

It looks like the BJP did not learn the lessons of 2004. They ran a middle/upper-class oriented campaign with their India Shining slogan. The reason they lost that round is not that their leaders were not hardcore enough to excite the Hindutva base. The reason was that there are simply not enough Lok Sabha seats where the middle/upper class casts the decisive vote. Even in constituencies like South Delhi and Secunderabad, which are at the high end of middle class as percentage of the electorate, there are just a few divisions (i.e. Assembly constituencies) that are solidly middle-class (e.g. Kukatpally); most of the voters even those constituencies are poor or at best lower-middle-class.

by Idéfix Mon Sep 16, 2013 6:45 pm

smArtha wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If you include INC's vote share prior to 1991, you will see the real trend (and why many CONmen became ex-CONwallahs and floated new parties and why movies started showing CONwallahs as CONartists).
True. That will only further weaken's Smartha's argument that Congress has a locked-up voteshare while BJP does not.
My argument was that BJP still doesn't have as much locked up vote share as does the Congress and it was more true in 1980s and still true even today. Unless BJP gets their locked up share to the 20% range it is not a competition for the Congress. If 'somehow' Modi can get to power and rule for the full-term at the center, he can accomplish that for BJP and that is the belief of his supporters as well as the fear of his opponents. Hence various forces are uniting on both sides to ensure that happens or doesn't.

18% is not that far from 20%. The 2009 election was the worst result for the party since it became the second national party, but it still got 18%.

"Somehow" is a hope, not a strategy.

by Seva Lamberdar Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:15 pm

Idéfix wrote:
smArtha wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If you include INC's vote share prior to 1991, you will see the real trend (and why many CONmen became ex-CONwallahs and floated new parties and why movies started showing CONwallahs as CONartists).
True. That will only further weaken's Smartha's argument that Congress has a locked-up voteshare while BJP does not.
My argument was that BJP still doesn't have as much locked up vote share as does the Congress and it was more true in 1980s and still true even today. Unless BJP gets their locked up share to the 20% range it is not a competition for the Congress. If 'somehow' Modi can get to power and rule for the full-term at the center, he can accomplish that for BJP and that is the belief of his supporters as well as the fear of his opponents. Hence various forces are uniting on both sides to ensure that happens or doesn't.
18% is not that far from 20%. The 2009 election was the worst result for the party since it became the second national party, but it still got 18%.

"Somehow" is a hope, not a strategy.

The BJP seems to be on the right course, first by choosing a potentially competent and relatively "young" leader / prime ministerial candidate. Next, the BJP needs to show to public that it is different party from the Congress, and that is not by just promising to build the Ayodhya temple or taking out more "pad yatras" (as it used to do under Advani's leadership).

by truthbetold Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:10 pm

[quote="smArtha"]

truthbetold wrote:For bjp to increase its base it needs to broaden its appeal. it cannot beat up on its sll base to increase its share of votes. vajpayee attracted more sections by his moderate views. modi gets base exited and may draw few additional middle class votes. however he cannot expand bjp 's appeal beyond Hindu masses of the heartland.

BJP cadre and leaders seem to have a different view that he'll capture a bigger share of the younger generation and middle/upwardly mobile classes. The latter have so far stayed away from the election process and BJP's bet is that -like Obama- Modi will get them to the booths and thus increase their share. Even if he captures an additional 3-5% from this segment and another 3-5% comes as anti-incumbency that is a fairly large swing for them to reach the 200 figure. Besides the 20% minority vote share is being wooed by everyone from the Religious minority parties, Left parties, Regional parties and the Congress.[/qu

by smArtha Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:04 pm

Idéfix wrote:18% is not that far from 20%. The 2009 election was the worst result for the party since it became the second national party, but it still got 18%.

"Somehow" is a hope, not a strategy.

18% is what they got in 2009 but not all of it can be put in the loyal voter bucket. 2009 has some % of anti-incumbency and -as in each election- a portion of it accounted for the candidates, local strengths and issues. It is not easy to factor all this but we can generally discount about 10% for the big National Parties like BJP and Cong. If we don't do such discounting then Congress can claim about 30% loyal voters which is still a good 10+% more than that of the BJP.

There cannot be an absolute will work strategy in these cases. Parties take chances and a strategy based on the hope of the cadre and local leadership is a very good strategy IMO. In Indian elections, apart from the inclinations of the electorate, the motivated party workers in each constituency play a role in mobilizing the potential voters for the campaigns and also they'll work towards getting them to the poll booths. Another point in favor of Modi is that he'll be able to attract the best corporate and HNI funding for the party to meet the poll expenses .

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