If BJP wins, will RSS ditch Narendra Modi and make Rajnath Singh, Chauhan, or Gadkari the Prime Minister?

The brewing discontent within the Sangh Parivar shows that the group does not unanimously agree on the choice of Modi as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. However, to ensure that the BJP forms a government at the Centre, supporting Modi is not a choice, but a necessity. In fact, the Sangh would rather stop Modi from becoming the Prime Minister instead of elevating him. It is only because the Sangh believes that he can mobilise votes for the party that it supports him. Within the Sangh, only Suresh Soni is categorical in his support of Modi. At the Goa Conclave, Soni put pressure on Rajnath Singh and other senior party leaders to declare Modi as their electoral campaign committee’s president, despite senior leader Lal Krishna Advani’s boycott and the JD (U) calling off its long-standing ties with the BJP. Currently Suresh Soni is the Sangh’s liaison person for the BJP. But he might not last long in the post if the Sangh adheres to its plan of withdrawing its support to Modi. He might soon be replaced by Bhaiyyaji Joshi, who is neither a supporter of Modi, nor his opponent, although he believes that Modi can help the BJP win seats. Dattatreya Hosabale, National Joint General Secretary, RSS, is also a supporter of Modi.

Mohan Bhagwat is one of the leaders who never favoured Modi. He was chiefly responsible for the delay in declaring Modi’s selection. If the BJP wins 160-170 seats in the 2014 elections, Bhagwat would probably be the first to demand that Modi be replaced by someone else. Manmohan Vaidya and Madhubhai Kulkarni are vociferous opponents of Modi. Both of them have been Sangh pracharaks at different times in Gujarat. They know what happened to the Sangh Parivar during Modi’s rule. They are also aware of how Modi treats anybody posing a threat to his agenda. Both of them were removed from the state after Modi complained to senior Sangh officials that they were creating problems for his government.

Political experts are convinced that the Sangh would never want Modi to achieve a position where it is possible for him to repeat his Gujarat model at the national level. The Sangh has not forgotten how Atal Bihari Vajpayee disregarded the RSS and ignored its basic principles. While the RSS was running a swadeshi campaign, Vajpayee promoted foreign capital. Advani apologised for the Babri Masjid demolition and the RSS could do nothing.

Senior journalist Paranjoy Guha Thakurta points out an interesting fact. “On his visit to Jinnah’s tomb, Advani called him a secular figure. He also shifted his stance on the Babri Masjid demolition. Yet the Sangh did not oppose his candidature for the post of PM then. It means the Sangh is not cut off from the political situation in the country. They were aware that Advani would not be able to form the government. Based on their political understanding, I firmly believe that Sangh knows that Modi will also not be able to form the government. That’s why they have not opposed Modi’s candidature.”

The RSS hopes that once the party wins, it can do away with Modi, paving the way for other possibilities. But what is the Sangh’s alternative to Modi? A senior leader of RSS and BJP says, “The RSS wants a government at the Centre. The party has been out of power for the past 10 years. If a government is formed, its workers will regain confidence. The first preference of the Sangh would be Rajnath Singh because he facilitates the Sangh’s work and promotes its ideology. It would not mind Advani either. The Sangh needs resources to run its organisations. When Vajpayee became the PM, although he neglected the Sangh’s ideology while running the government, he empowered the Sangh and its affiliates. Many groups were allotted land in Delhi. If Advani becomes the PM, the Sangh will focus on consolidating its position.”

There is speculation that the Sangh Parivar might want Nitin Gadkari or Shivraj Singh Chauhan as Prime Minister. Gadkari was a junior leader when he was given the party’s command. He has served at this position for three years now. As for Chauhan, there is hardly any senior BJP leader apart from Modi who opposes him.

What would Modi do in case a government is eventually formed at the Centre, but under the leadership of someone else? A politician who has worked alongside Modi in the BJP says, “As far as I know Modi, if the BJP’s win is restricted to 160-170 seats, he will not want BJP to form a government. But he won’t return to Gujarat either. He will try to become an opposition leader in the Lok Sabha. This would send across a message that he has not accepted defeat. He will constantly keep lashing out at the government in the parliament in an attempt to gear up for the next polls.”

http://www.tehelka.com/why-sangh-doesnt-want-modi-as-pm/2/

Would love to hear the views of Vakavaka and Saamiyaar on this new development.