gold

by Propagandhi711 Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:50 am

any of you DBs planning to buy some gold (physical or virtual) anytime soon? am starting to think it'll be a good pickup around $1120 since that's a strong long term support level. Ofcourse it could go lower to $1000 but it might be good to bottomfish when things are getting ugly

by peace_lover Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:59 am

Trading in stock markets is Haraam. Please refrain from doing so if you want to land up in heaven.

by harharmahadev Tue Dec 17, 2013 11:13 am

Yes, it's a good time to buy. Buy physical with a plan to accumulate over 10+ years.

by Propagandhi711 Tue Dec 17, 2013 11:40 am

am thinking of buying some NUGT, thinking contrarian on miners hitting bottom on anticipation they wont be able to mine profitably at current prices. it's currently at 27, down from 500+ so lost a bit of value, ohh only abt 95%. maybe it'll bounce back like solar ETF did this year, worth taking a shot.

by truthbetold Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:10 pm

Risk premium is gone. Conservative speculation is in dusbin.
Other gold booster inflation is dead in waters.
goldman's prediction is to go below 1000.
why gold now?

by Propagandhi711 Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:23 pm

rest of market is going on pure MoMo and stocks look fully valued. contrarian play that miners will bounce at some point once the taper ends

by nevada Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:14 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:am thinking of buying some NUGT, thinking contrarian on miners hitting bottom on anticipation they wont be able to mine profitably at current prices. it's currently at 27, down from 500+ so lost a bit of value, ohh only abt 95%. maybe it'll bounce back like solar ETF did this year, worth taking a shot.

No, don't do it! NUGT is for day traders who don't know any better. If gold falls a little, NUGT drops 3x as much and before you realize it, you will be in a big whole which will become impossible to climb out of.

by Guest Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:21 pm

harharmahadev wrote:Yes, it's a good time to buy. Buy physical with a plan to accumulate over 10+ years.

why physical? why not demat? any difference? *curious*

by nevada Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:29 pm

Brigadier HK (Retd) wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:Yes, it's a good time to buy. Buy physical with a plan to accumulate over 10+ years.
why physical? why not demat? any difference? *curious*

Some people say that physical gold is "real" gold and demat/gold ETF is just a piece of paper with no real gold to back it up.

by truthbetold Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:41 pm

i read a very detailed article posted on such by propagandhi in the last few weeks. gold etf was backed by physical assets.

by Guest Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:45 pm

nevada wrote:
Brigadier HK (Retd) wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:Yes, it's a good time to buy. Buy physical with a plan to accumulate over 10+ years.
why physical? why not demat? any difference? *curious*

Some people say that physical gold is "real" gold and demat/gold ETF is just a piece of paper with no real gold to back it up.

i see your point. the problem with physical gold is storing it (unless you are a jeweller).

by Guest Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:47 pm

reminds me of the twisted version

mere desh ki stree sona nigle, nigle heere moti, mere desh ki stree.

by FluteHolder Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:55 pm

As per one of my trader friend who has never lost a single trade for the past 5+ years, Gold may go to 800$. He does not trade gold but is a fund manager dealing in long term investments globally.

by truthbetold Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:01 pm

FluteHolder wrote:As per one of my trader friend who has never lost a single trade for the past 5+ years, Gold may go to 800$. He does not trade gold but is a fund manager dealing in long term investments globally.

Goldman is your friend?

by FluteHolder Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:04 pm

No. He is in Europe. He runs his own firm managing investments for HNW clients and he does have 'friends' in important places Smile

by truthbetold Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:21 pm

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2011/11/15/is-gld-really-as-good-as-
gold/

This is a 2011 Forbes article but contains answers to above questions. hsbc vault contains gold to back the shares of gld issued by major bank brokers.
however common shareholder cannot redeem shares for physical gold.

one criticism is that gold in bank vault may or maynot match number of shares sold in the market.

on the otherhand gld is one of the largest etfs in the world.
i do not believe gold is likely to rebound significantly in 2014 barring a major political or economic calamity.

by Propagandhi711 Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:40 pm

nevada, gold having no real earnings or other measures of valuation goes the way of 'sentiment', and is the ultimate speculative buy, regardless of what goldbugs like to tell ppl. as such buying anything other than gold miners is highly speculative. even miners are but atleast they have earnings, dividends...anyways the reason I said NUGT is it's 3x volatility. alternatively one can pick actual miners such as IAG, take your pick

by Propagandhi711 Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:45 pm

I'm sceptical of someone's record that they've never had a losing trade in 5 yrs. unless the person only buys and never sells

by smArtha Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:29 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:I'm sceptical of someone's record that they've never had a losing trade in 5 yrs. unless the person only buys and never sells

Yes. Looks like some PnL Management at work there :-)

by indophile Tue Dec 17, 2013 5:05 pm

smArtha wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:I'm sceptical of someone's record that they've never had a losing trade in 5 yrs. unless the person only buys and never sells

Yes. Looks like some PnL Management at work there :-)

True meaning of that Telugu-Urdu combination word - "tOsEkhaana" where gifts to the sultan/king are deposited, never to be withdrawn, i.e., only tOseydam, never teeseyadam.

by smArtha Tue Dec 17, 2013 5:31 pm

indophile wrote:
smArtha wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:I'm sceptical of someone's record that they've never had a losing trade in 5 yrs. unless the person only buys and never sells

Yes. Looks like some PnL Management at work there :-)

True meaning of that Telugu-Urdu combination word - "tOsEkhaana" where gifts to the sultan/king are deposited, never to be withdrawn, i.e., only tOseydam, never teeseyadam.

Isn't this a Sanskrit-Persian combo. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toshakhana

by FluteHolder Tue Dec 17, 2013 5:31 pm

First I thought that is impossible not to lose a trade and I know him for the past 2+ years. I and other traders challenged him too. He doesnot use stop loss but has some hedging strategy with options if any trade goes against his expectations. There are few investors who have got their accounts managed by him vouch for his trades too.

by b_A Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:45 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:any of you DBs planning to buy some gold (physical or virtual) anytime soon? am starting to think it'll be a good pickup around $1120 since that's a strong long term support level. Ofcourse it could go lower to $1000 but it might be good to bottomfish when things are getting ugly

I am waiting for confirmation that it has bottomed out. As a famous guru said , you don't need to catch the exact bottom or top to make money.

by Propagandhi711 Wed Dec 18, 2013 12:13 pm

b_A, besides crossing 200dma convincingly what other confirmation would you look for?

by b_A Wed Dec 18, 2013 10:57 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:b_A, besides crossing 200dma convincingly what other confirmation would you look for?

Forming a base at the bottom. Since this is not a steep fall , a V type bottom is ruled out. A base with a flattish base or a saucer pattern.

by Propagandhi711 Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:16 am

sweet...got some NUGT at 26 & 24....it jumped 10% to 30 today..thinking of getting out and getting back in if it goes back to 26ish

by Propagandhi711 Wed Jan 15, 2014 12:04 pm

24% return in NUGT so far in 2 wks...am adding more on any weakness.

also looking at these two biotech pharmas: ligand and mannkind, may take smallish position soon.

by harharmahadev Wed Jan 15, 2014 4:14 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:24% return in NUGT so far in 2 wks...am adding more on any weakness.

also looking at these two biotech pharmas: ligand and mannkind, may take smallish position soon.

I had added to my NG position last month....saw a nice spike.

by Propagandhi711 Fri Jan 17, 2014 11:45 am

NUGT kicking ass...up 10% today...now am sad for not adding to position

by harharmahadev Fri Jan 17, 2014 2:59 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:NUGT kicking ass...up 10% today...now am sad for not adding to position

NG kicking ass too!!

by Propagandhi711 Fri Jan 17, 2014 3:46 pm

harharmahadev wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:NUGT kicking ass...up 10% today...now am sad for not adding to position

NG kicking ass too!!

but only half the ass NUGT is kicking

by harharmahadev Fri Jan 17, 2014 4:23 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:
Propagandhi711 wrote:NUGT kicking ass...up 10% today...now am sad for not adding to position

NG kicking ass too!!

but only half the ass NUGT is kicking

Hmm...sounds tempting....I might nibble on nugt next week.

by b_A Thu Jan 30, 2014 9:45 pm

Looks like gold is going to retest the bottom.
Stock Indices will probably make new highs soon in V shaped recovery.

by b_A Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:00 pm

b_A wrote:
Stock Indices will probably make new highs soon in V shaped recovery.

Today's market action so far, strengthens my view. Expecting some fireworks to the upside next week.

by b_A Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:12 pm

Watch the NUGT stop at 34'sh. If it falls through that, it will revisit the lows.

by Propagandhi711 Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:17 pm

b_A wrote:Watch the NUGT stop at 34'sh. If it falls through that, it will revisit the lows.

bA, am going to buy another 600 or so if it goes below 29....this thing's a nobrainer to me at this point. could be famous last words, but I think the worries on miners are overdone. just a hunch

by harharmahadev Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:34 pm

b_A wrote:Watch the NUGT stop at 34'sh. If it falls through that, it will revisit the lows.

It won't ...because I bought it a few days back at 35

by b_A Sat Feb 01, 2014 2:47 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:
b_A wrote:Watch the NUGT stop at 34'sh. If it falls through that, it will revisit the lows.

bA, am going to buy another 600 or so if it goes below 29....this thing's a nobrainer to me at this point. could be famous last words, but I think the worries on miners are overdone. just a hunch

With the currency crisis , Gold had a perfect excuse to go up last week. The fact that it didn't and silver near 52-week lows, are hinting that gold will go at least to 52-week low , IMO.

by Propagandhi711 Sat Feb 01, 2014 2:53 pm

Well it seems like that emerging market issues were balanced by positive numbers on GDP front...I don't know that it's an automatic reaction to any crisis of confidence but us economy still is looking strng. and report abt euro zone deflation didnt help either. Anyways I want to accumulate miners at these levels even if I don't catch the bottom

by b_A Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:41 pm

b_A wrote: Expecting some fireworks to the upside next week.

We got the fireworks all right but in the wrong direction. Smile

by Propagandhi711 Mon Feb 03, 2014 3:19 pm

its almost following the script...melt up in dec and melt down for jan/feb before a possible anemic recovery in march/apr. what're you looking to buy during this downswing?

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