My prediction for Lok Sabha elections

SomeProfile wrote:Rashmunni following Dickvijay school of election analysis!

Here's what Rashmunni posted on Dec 4th after drinking deeply from Dickvijay's... err... wisdom: Rajasthan: Cong declares victory

Actual Rajasthan results: BJP - 162, Congress - 21 (down 75 seats)

Here's another one of Rashmunni's non-sense, again posted on Dec 4th: Dynamic Cong leader Sheila Dixit scares the BJP

Actual Delhi results: BJP - 31, Congress - 8 (down 35 seats)

ROFL!

Koschen to Rashmunni: Given your utter failure in the past to predict anything remotely close to reality, shouldn't you be hiding your head up your ass (or up Dickvijay's ass, if you like that better), instead of venturing out to make more predictions? Oops, my mistake, your head IS hiding up your ass in order for you to come up with more of this shit.

truthbetold wrote:Rash,
it is too early to talk about 2014 results. but if you want to talk about it and want to be taken seriously, do some home work.
go back to past elections and find % of votes by party and regional distribution of party strength. then use latest aaliance info and state your case based on %. add to that you need to propose % changes for each party and alliance in 2014.
without all that home work your post are more like movie fans wishlist.

Rashmun wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Rash,
it is too early to talk about 2014 results. but if you want to talk about it and want to be taken seriously, do some home work.
go back to past elections and find % of votes by party and regional distribution of party strength. then use latest aaliance info and state your case based on %. add to that you need to propose % changes for each party and alliance in 2014.
without all that home work your post are more like movie fans wishlist.

i had taken a look at the vote share before i made my post. here it is:


Put it to the vagaries of the first-past-the post system but the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal(U)-Bharatiya Janata Party combine, which pulled off an incredible, winner-take-all four-fifths majority in the recent Bihar election, secured a vote share of only 39 per cent — just a three percentage point improvement over what it polled in October 2005.

The ruling alliance won 206 seats, leaving the combined Opposition clutching at all of 37 seats in a House of 243. What is striking, however, is the mismatch between the superhero size of the JD(U)-BJP combine's mandate and its vote share. Consider the seat and vote statistics compiled by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). JD(U)-BJP: 206 seats for 39 per cent; Rashtriya Janata Dal-Lok Janshakti Party: 25 seats for 25.59 per cent; Congress: four seats for 8.38 per cent; Communist Party of India: one seat for 1.69 per cent and Communist Party of India (Marxist): no seats for 0.71 per cent. The JD(U) polled 22.61 per cent to the BJP's 16.46 per cent.

These figures ought to comfort Lalu Prasad and warn his opponents against prematurely writing him off. In the October 2005 election, which the RJD fought jointly with the Congress, the two parties together won 63 seats for a combined vote share of 29.54 per cent. The RJD's share of votes in this was 23.45 per cent, which establishes a vote erosion in the current election of around 4.5 percentage points. In the same election, the JD(U) and the BJP polled 20.46 per cent and 15.65 per cent respectively.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/mismatch-between-nitish-wave-and-vote-share/article913292.ece

Rashmun wrote:With respect to the Lok Sabha elections, I will only focus on Bihar in this post.

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:With respect to  the Lok Sabha elections, I will only focus on Bihar in this post.

Why ? A political pundit like you with keen intellect and vast knowledge on any part of India should not limit himself to just one state.
Don't shortsell yourself.

Rashmun wrote:

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:With respect to  the Lok Sabha elections, I will only focus on Bihar in this post.

Why ? A political pundit like you with keen intellect and vast knowledge on any part of India should not limit himself to just one state.
Don't shortsell yourself.

i will comment on another states also. have some patience.

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:With respect to  the Lok Sabha elections, I will only focus on Bihar in this post.

Why ? A political pundit like you with keen intellect and vast knowledge on any part of India should not limit himself to just one state.
Don't shortsell yourself.

i will comment on another states also. have some patience.

Can't wait. Always eager to know your accurate predictions.

Rashmun wrote:

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:With respect to  the Lok Sabha elections, I will only focus on Bihar in this post.

Why ? A political pundit like you with keen intellect and vast knowledge on any part of India should not limit himself to just one state.
Don't shortsell yourself.

i will comment on another states also. have some patience.

Can't wait. Always eager to know your accurate predictions.

you seem to be an impatient fellow. btw, are you always so querulous?

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:

b_A wrote:
Why ? A political pundit like you with keen intellect and vast knowledge on any part of India should not limit himself to just one state.
Don't shortsell yourself.

i will comment on another states also. have some patience.

Can't wait. Always eager to know your accurate predictions.

you seem to be an impatient fellow. btw, are you always so querulous?

How ? I am praising you and you call me querelous?

Rashmun wrote:

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:

b_A wrote:

Rashmun wrote:

i will comment on another states also. have some patience.

Can't wait. Always eager to know your accurate predictions.

you seem to be an impatient fellow. btw, are you always so querulous?

How ? I am praising you and you call me querelous?

i am calling you querulous for your impatience.

b_A wrote:Phew. For a minute, I was worried that you were reading between the lines.

SomeProfile wrote:

b_A wrote:Phew. For a minute, I was worried that you were reading between the lines.

Subtle! I like it. Rashmunni is too dumb to see it.

Rashmun wrote:With respect to  the Lok Sabha elections, I will only focus on Bihar in this post. If there is a Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance, and if BJP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) fight separately, i predict a sweep of the Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance with the three parties getting anywhere between 30-40 seats of the total 40 seats in Bihar. BJP will end up with anywhere between 0-5 seats. Last time round when Nitish and BJP had fought together Nitish had won 20 and BJP had won 15 seats.

My dream coalition would be a Congress-Lalu-Paswan-Nitish alliance taking on the BJP. In this case, the BJP is sure to not even win a single seat in Bihar.

southindian wrote:

Rashmun wrote:With respect to  the Lok Sabha elections, I will only focus on Bihar in this post. If there is a Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance, and if BJP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) fight separately, i predict a sweep of the Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance with the three parties getting anywhere between 30-40 seats of the total 40 seats in Bihar. BJP will end up with anywhere between 0-5 seats. Last time round when Nitish and BJP had fought together Nitish had won 20 and BJP had won 15 seats.

My dream coalition would be a Congress-Lalu-Paswan-Nitish alliance taking on the BJP. In this case, the BJP is sure to not even win a single seat in Bihar.

Your predictions are 40% correct, which means Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance will get 18-24 seats.

Rashmun wrote:

southindian wrote:

Rashmun wrote:With respect to  the Lok Sabha elections, I will only focus on Bihar in this post. If there is a Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance, and if BJP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) fight separately, i predict a sweep of the Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance with the three parties getting anywhere between 30-40 seats of the total 40 seats in Bihar. BJP will end up with anywhere between 0-5 seats. Last time round when Nitish and BJP had fought together Nitish had won 20 and BJP had won 15 seats.

My dream coalition would be a Congress-Lalu-Paswan-Nitish alliance taking on the BJP. In this case, the BJP is sure to not even win a single seat in Bihar.

Your predictions are 40% correct, which means Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance will get 18-24 seats.

My predictions with respect to specific states are completely on target or completely off target. For instance I was completely on target as far as Rajasthan and Mizoram are concerned.

You in contrast have a 0% record for making any predictions since you are obviously too timid to make any.

Rashmun wrote:With respect to  the Lok Sabha elections, I will only focus on Bihar in this post. If there is a Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance, and if BJP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) fight separately, i predict a sweep of the Congress-Lalu-Paswan alliance with the three parties getting anywhere between 30-40 seats of the total 40 seats in Bihar. BJP will end up with anywhere between 0-5 seats. Last time round when Nitish and BJP had fought together Nitish had won 20 and BJP had won 15 seats.

My dream coalition would be a Congress-Lalu-Paswan-Nitish alliance taking on the BJP. In this case, the BJP is sure to not even win a single seat in Bihar.