Bihar : Time for Modi govt introspection

Exit polls are not clear on the winner of Bihar state elections. While few polls point to NDA, majority seems to indicate a Nitish victory.

Few months back NDA swept Bihar in Parliament elections against a divided opposition. But opposition realized went back to the old united opposition tactic used successfully by the likes of Vajpayee.

BJP and RSS got arrogant and greedy. Modi's parliament election message of development first was thrown away to push cow message and anti muslim rhetoric. This was political suicide. It is not as if they were not unaware of the pitfalls. Remember the church burning news items during delhi elections. BJP's feeble attempt to show its innocence failed to convince voters. National and international news outlets described india as another nazi germany in making. It does not matter no new church incident was seen in news paper after delhi election. BJP election managers failed to realize, true or not, they are vulnerable to election news cycle of being branded as intolerant party and anti minority extremists.

RSS and BJP extremists, instead of learning from Delhi drubbing, came up with cow theory and anti muslim hate speeches. United opposition and well organized propaganda news media was gifted with news incidents of great propaganda value. Rest is history. BJP got pummeled in Bihar election news cycle. Unlike Delhi, BJP deserved this criticism. One for their sporadic but intentional acts of intolerance. Second for their stupidity.

Modi ruling group's failure hurts in more than one way. India's name is dragged in the mud. BJP's antics are more hurtful to India's image now that they are ruling the country. International investing community does is greedy but is also weary of such medieval thought process. The fact that many of them do not share indian hindu beliefs does not help.

Modi and BJP's feeble attempts to distance themselves from so called stray and sporadic incidents does not help as the negative narrative fits BJP's past image. BJP's explanations and retorts against award returns is equally stupid. They were branding everybody as congress or anti national. That mindless criticism alienates even the impartial observers.

Modi and his ruling group must impress on the BJP and RSS that medieval ideas like anti meat, anti beef, and anti muslim ideas must be shelved for him to improve economic climate and attract newer investments in Indian growth. Failure to do so would be suicidal to BJP.

More importantly, modi's failure would be another lost opportunity to improve the living standards of more than a billion Indians.

very early results: Nda 61 , GA: 53

update: GA 85, NDA 83.

Looks like , for once, exit polls correctly threw up confusion in results.

Even if BJP+ wins a majority, people like Manhji will be bargaining throught the 5 year term. BJP+ needs to get 150+ to be stable. Unless BJP gets 125+ on its own, the fence shitting partners wont keep quiet.

Now it is 9;30 local time. Results seem to have settled into a consistent pattern.

Grand Alliance 130 plus, NDA 91

F'ing mistakes of BJP and RSS breathed life into Laloo's RJD.

This is probably good news for CBN. Modi may not ignore his requests for more funds for AP.

truthbetold wrote:Now it is 9;30 local time. Results seem to have settled into a consistent pattern.

Grand Alliance 130 plus, NDA 91

F'ing mistakes of BJP and RSS breathed life into Laloo's RJD.  

I think the Sachangachalak needs to be fired.

OTOH this will put Modt/Amit in a proper place and curtail their authoritarianism.

Bihar will be buried in Lalu-Nitish warfare and Lalu's looting.

Shame on Bihar and now Modi/ Center will save the promised 125,000 crore central funds.

truthbetold wrote:Now it is 9;30 local time. Results seem to have settled into a consistent pattern.

Grand Alliance 130 plus, NDA 91

F'ing mistakes of BJP and RSS breathed life into Laloo's RJD.  

Nice try there, detaching Modi from BJP/RSS. Looks like Modi has won as an independent in our NRI friends minds.

Final numbers are more ike: GA 145 and NDA 75.

That is crushing defeat for modi and BJP.

This is a time for BJP to decide if they want to shelve the Cow theory and anti muslim rhetoric.

May be the results give India another chance to get back on development track.

truthbetold wrote:Final numbers are more ike: GA 145 and NDA 75.

That is crushing defeat for modi and BJP.  

This is a time for BJP to decide if they want to shelve the Cow theory and anti muslim rhetoric.

May be the results give India another chance to get back on development track.

They and their supporters are living in a bubble, oblivious and even hostile to advice and well-meant criticism. Incessant and unnecessary personal attacks on opposition leaders, obviating political consensus, is hardly the way to pursue a development track.

Mr 56 incher's political capital is now spent. It's only a matter of time now before the knives are out for him and his thuggish henchman, Amitbhai-the-hutt.

Nitish won and BJP lost, but I feel sorry for Bihar.

A corrupt, convicted political leader is voted by people of state for no reason except caste, money.

I don't think Modi lost. Bihar has proved that caste, corruption, money can overshadow every other thing.

SI,

Your argument is logically incorrect. People who voted for modi in 2014 for development cannot transform into caste voters in the space of 18 months.

Caste, religion and money were there in 2014 and bjp is no slouch in using them either.

The differences were clear weeks before the counting day.

1. Divided opposition from 2014 combined to better aggregate their side of votes.

2. Nitish Kumar did lot of good work in the last 10 years. BJP cannot deny that as its record of past is tied to Nitish. People cannot simply ignore positive developments of past 10 years just because BJP and JD(U) broke away.

3. Polls from couple of months ago showed NDA was ahead. Probably those polls underestimated grand alliance's combined ability. BJP leaders then went on to deliver cow theory, anti muslim and anti reservation gifts to GA. The old vote banks of Muslim and reservation castes consolidated and went for GA more forcefully.

4. Modi and amitshah suffer from grandiose ideas of their popularity. They forgot that a party has to win voter support in every election. Cruise control or past glory is not going to help. It never did.

5. Indian voter is becoming more logical. As a group , they have voted in the right direction (in bihar they punished arrogant and anti minority side of bJP). They are making a distinction between national vote and state vote. This may be a stretch but people as a group may even be selecting modi at center (as against rahul or sonia) and nitish at state level.

I hope Bihar elections put an end to BJP's cow theory and anti muslim rhetoric or at a minimum modi will be smart enough to control his extreme elements for next 5 years.

Merlot Daruwala wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Final numbers are more ike: GA 145 and NDA 75.

That is crushing defeat for modi and BJP.  

This is a time for BJP to decide if they want to shelve the Cow theory and anti muslim rhetoric.

May be the results give India another chance to get back on development track.

They and their supporters are living in a bubble, oblivious and even hostile to advice and well-meant criticism. Incessant and unnecessary personal attacks on opposition leaders, obviating political consensus, is hardly the way to pursue a development track.

Mr 56 incher's political capital is now spent. It's only a matter of time now before the knives are out for him and his thuggish henchman, Amitbhai-the-hutt.

BJP does not have an alternative leader to modi or an alternate narrative. Internal strife is possible as modi is weakening. Amit Shah could be the sacrificial lamb. Modi will be forced but is not likely to relinquish his PMO control.

BJP's future is in India's economic performance. More jobs and more enthusiasm over several years. That economic performance has to come without any opposition's help (in fact they will do their best to obstruct economic growth). Modi has to govern as if he has a stable but minority coalition government.

southindian wrote:Nitish won and BJP lost, but I feel sorry for Bihar.

A corrupt, convicted political leader is voted by people of state for no reason except caste, money.

I don't think Modi lost. Bihar has proved that caste, corruption, money can overshadow every other thing.

i don't think so.

my simplistic understanding of what happened is that the indian voter now wants DEVELOPMENT (not just sonia mnrega but job opportunities and palpable growth -- bijli paani, makaan). the voter therefore voted bjp last year --did not see growth at a national level but already had at a state level under nitish -- and nitish this year. bihar hates lalu and since rjd and jdu did not field contesting candidates in the same constituency, all the rjd votes are really for the jdu. (my one bil voted congress because there was no nitish candidate in his constituency -- his vote for congress was indirectly for nitish.)

nitish has done enormous for bihar. in samastipur (as i learnt from another bil), he opened his speech with -- bijli aayi ki nahin? the response was a resounding aayi! 

the only problem is -- how long will the alliance stand! lalu is a crook and might pull the rug within a year (nitish will sweep the re-elections) or he might not and continue to arm-twist nitish to fill his coffers.

muslims will never vote bjp. bjp has made sure of it. but bjp has also shown that their influence is non existent. true. all this forward/backward caste spins i do not buy. voter wants development (except the muslims -- who use a different rationale to vote -- they burst crackers in bihar today). 

lalu lost chapra YET AGAIN (bjp won). bihar hates him.

The job of the PM is to focus on governance, focus on what is good for all Indians regardless of party affiliations. Modi has failed as a statesman so far. It makes no sense for a PM to spend an enormous amount of time and energy, something like 30 separate campaigning appearances in Bihar, when the rest of the country was looking for him to focus on the national issues. The honeymoon period of 18 months is over. Hopefully Modi answers to the wake up call.

brie wrote:

southindian wrote:Nitish won and BJP lost, but I feel sorry for Bihar.

A corrupt, convicted political leader is voted by people of state for no reason except caste, money.

I don't think Modi lost. Bihar has proved that caste, corruption, money can overshadow every other thing.

i don't think so.

my simplistic understanding of what happened is that the indian voter now wants DEVELOPMENT (not just sonia mnrega but job opportunities and palpable growth -- bijli paani, makaan). the voter therefore voted bjp last year --did not see growth at a national level but already had at a state level under nitish -- and nitish this year. bihar hates lalu and since rjd and jdu did not field contesting candidates in the same constituency, all the rjd votes are really for the jdu. (my one bil voted congress because there was no nitish candidate in his constituency -- his vote for congress was indirectly for nitish.)

nitish has done enormous for bihar. in samastipur (as i learnt from another bil), he opened his speech with -- bijli aayi ki nahin? the response was a resounding aayi! 

the only problem is -- how long will the alliance stand! lalu is a crook and might pull the rug within a year (nitish will sweep the re-elections) or he might not and continue to arm-twist nitish to fill his coffers.

muslims will never vote bjp. bjp has made sure of it. but bjp has also shown that their influence is non existent. true. all this forward/backward caste spins i do not buy. voter wants development (except the muslims -- who use a different rationale to vote -- they burst crackers in bihar today). 

lalu lost chapra YET AGAIN (bjp won). bihar hates him.

State elections are seldom won on the image of a national leader (in recent history). Maharashtra was an exception not the rule.

confuzzled dude wrote:

brie wrote:

southindian wrote:Nitish won and BJP lost, but I feel sorry for Bihar.

A corrupt, convicted political leader is voted by people of state for no reason except caste, money.

I don't think Modi lost. Bihar has proved that caste, corruption, money can overshadow every other thing.

i don't think so.

my simplistic understanding of what happened is that the indian voter now wants DEVELOPMENT (not just sonia mnrega but job opportunities and palpable growth -- bijli paani, makaan). the voter therefore voted bjp last year --did not see growth at a national level but already had at a state level under nitish -- and nitish this year. bihar hates lalu and since rjd and jdu did not field contesting candidates in the same constituency, all the rjd votes are really for the jdu. (my one bil voted congress because there was no nitish candidate in his constituency -- his vote for congress was indirectly for nitish.)

nitish has done enormous for bihar. in samastipur (as i learnt from another bil), he opened his speech with -- bijli aayi ki nahin? the response was a resounding aayi! 

the only problem is -- how long will the alliance stand! lalu is a crook and might pull the rug within a year (nitish will sweep the re-elections) or he might not and continue to arm-twist nitish to fill his coffers.

muslims will never vote bjp. bjp has made sure of it. but bjp has also shown that their influence is non existent. true. all this forward/backward caste spins i do not buy. voter wants development (except the muslims -- who use a different rationale to vote -- they burst crackers in bihar today). 

lalu lost chapra YET AGAIN (bjp won). bihar hates him.

State elections are seldom won on the image of a national leader (in recent history). Maharashtra was an exception not the rule.

that is a rather pompous statement. either say leader or party.

whatever you are trying to say, as swapna would say, is IRRELEVANT, because, i never said that voters were voting for a particular leader. they voted for development in both cases -- general and assembly -- irrespective of the face that promised it.

brie wrote:
that is a rather pompous statement. either say leader or party.

whatever you are trying to say, as swapna would say, is IRRELEVANT, because, i never said that voters were voting for a particular leader. they voted for development in both cases -- general and assembly -- irrespective of the face that promised it.

Check the recent history, it is always the local leader/politics that play the key role. Check for yourself, be it is WB, TN, Kerala,Gujarat,UP,AP, Odisha or even Delhi. Why do you think Congress, of late, has become a non-factor in many states?

confuzzled dude wrote:

brie wrote:
that is a rather pompous statement. either say leader or party.

whatever you are trying to say, as swapna would say, is IRRELEVANT, because, i never said that voters were voting for a particular leader. they voted for development in both cases -- general and assembly -- irrespective of the face that promised it.

Check the recent history, it is always the local leader/politics that play the key role. Check for yourself, be it is WB, TN, Kerala,Gujarat,UP,AP, Odisha or even Delhi. Why do you think Congress, of late, has become a non-factor in many states?

agreed.

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:This is probably good news for CBN. Modi may not ignore his requests for more funds for AP.

TDP is quietly happy that BJP lost in Bihar...

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/151109/nation-current-affairs/article/bjp-defeat-cheers-telugu-desam-too

Caste, caste, caste, caste, some more caste and oh money, free liquor and some more caste helped in Bihar state elections.

The MLAs are factors in questions like promotion, local contract, bribe, threat, kidnap, murder, rape, land grabbing, police influence, labor selling, girls selling, prostitution.

All these are VERY IMPORTANT for Biharis. They voted for the party who can help them more.

India benefits from continued supply of cheap free labor from Bihar. Good job Laloo, Nitish and Congress.

southindian wrote:Caste, caste, caste, caste, some more caste and oh money, free liquor and some more caste helped in Bihar state elections.

The MLAs are factors in questions like promotion, local contract, bribe, threat, kidnap, murder, rape, land grabbing, police influence, labor selling, girls selling, prostitution.

All these are VERY IMPORTANT for Biharis. They voted for the party who can help them more.

India benefits from continued supply of cheap free labor from Bihar. Good job Laloo, Nitish and Congress.

So, caste equation was not in play when Modiji/BJP won last year?

No amount of introspection is useful, when even the educated people support a corrupt convict and his looting family members - all bcz of one muslim was lynched in a state ruled by the opposition Mullahyam.

ware wah...hv not seen a SINGLE news item condemning the breakdown of law order in UP following the lynching.