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Nevada or New Hampshire could settle the election

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Nevada or New Hampshire could settle the election Empty Nevada or New Hampshire could settle the election

Post by truthbetold Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:17 pm

Since New Hampshire is moving more and more to Trump, Nevada could decide the election. I hope it does not come to that but if FL, and NC are trending to red column, Nevada is the last hope for Hillary.

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:33 pm

She might eke out a win in NH.
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Post by truthbetold Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:37 pm

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/04/heading-into-final-weekend-why-clinton-camp-feels-upbeat.html


Clinton has shown above-average appeal to both college-educated whites and Hispanics alienated by Trump. Given some large key states where such voters are concentrated, that means the Democratic nominee is padding her national popular-vote total in ways that won't win her any more electoral votes.
In California, for example, she now leads Trump by a greater margin than Obama defeated Mitt Romney by in 2012. In Texas, with its large Latino constituency, she's running closer to Trump than Obama ran in losing it to Romney. It won't help her in the electoral college because she would be winning California, and losing Texas, even without those extra votes.
"The national polls are really meaningless at this juncture," a senior Trump strategist told me. "Once we are within three points, we can win over 270 (electoral votes) because of her over-performance in Democratic states, and our winning but still under-performing in GOP states like Texas."
Clinton's national lead appears to be roughly three points. She continues to lead in enough battleground states to reach the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. But those leads are tenuous enough that, more than in past races with similar national polling, Trump still has a chance.



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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:46 pm

truthbetold wrote:http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/04/heading-into-final-weekend-why-clinton-camp-feels-upbeat.html


Clinton has shown above-average appeal to both college-educated whites and Hispanics alienated by Trump. Given some large key states where such voters are concentrated, that means the Democratic nominee is padding her national popular-vote total in ways that won't win her any more electoral votes.
In California, for example, she now leads Trump by a greater margin than Obama defeated Mitt Romney by in 2012. In Texas, with its large Latino constituency, she's running closer to Trump than Obama ran in losing it to Romney. It won't help her in the electoral college because she would be winning California, and losing Texas, even without those extra votes.
"The national polls are really meaningless at this juncture," a senior Trump strategist told me. "Once we are within three points, we can win over 270 (electoral votes) because of her over-performance in Democratic states, and our winning but still under-performing in GOP states like Texas."
Clinton's national lead appears to be roughly three points. She continues to lead in enough battleground states to reach the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. But those leads are tenuous enough that, more than in past races with similar national polling, Trump still has a chance.



Pretty much what I said here:
https://such.forumotion.com/t39653-anti-hrc-article-in-huffpo-holy#228851
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Nevada or New Hampshire could settle the election Empty Re: Nevada or New Hampshire could settle the election

Post by truthbetold Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:51 pm

13 toss up states:

Lead shrinking but still looks good for Hillary

MI, WI, PA, VA, CO (If she loses any of them, it is not likely to be a close election) 

Close but Trump can manage to win

OH, AZ, GA, and  assuming he will win UTAH

Trump strengthening in toss up states:

FL, NC, IA, NH   (If Trump loses FL and NC it is not likely to be close)

That put NV as the last toss up state to close elections.

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