The Iowa caususes

by charvaka Mon Jan 02, 2012 1:17 am

It looks like anything can happen tomorrow in Iowa. Romney might win outright with less than 25% of votes, Santorum -- gasp -- might pull off a victory. Or Paul might get to the finish line as he expected to last week. But this circus is extremely entertaining. Gingrich claims to be an amateur paleontologist who monitors temperature fluctuations, and Santorum is now the sane candidate. Whatever sadness I feel at the lack of support for Michelle Bachmann is more than made up by these theatrics. Meanwhile, conservatives are worried.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70983.html

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Mon Jan 02, 2012 2:37 am

Historically, those who win the new Hampshire primary tend to have a bigger momentum and chances to win the ultimate nomination. Iowa gives them exposure but somehow, it does not seem to influence the primaries in the next wave of states - namely the NH, FL, SC, etc..etc...

The first real test will be in SC - which is headed by a palinist. that will show the current support level of the Tea partyers, and their influence on the final outcome.

by Maria S Mon Jan 02, 2012 12:29 pm

I am more excited about the buildup and anticipation - for the LSU vs Alabama Championship game next Monday. However, in spite of the Republican characters, I mean candidates- who are sometimes hilarious and sometimes very pitiful to watch..will certainly pay attention to the results of the Iowa caucuses. Afterall "the first time"- watching anyone/anything has it's own novelty..after that it takes a lot more to be interesting and engaging!

Having said that - being an independent voter..in the end-general election, my vote and support this time, can't be taken for granted by dear (aside) Pres. Obama and he better not be over confident!

Maria

by MulaiAzhagi Mon Jan 02, 2012 12:58 pm

Maria,

Mitt Romney said he is going to ask the American public the same question Ronald Reagan asked in his debate with Jimmy Carter. "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"

Unless the unemployment dips below 6%, Obama will end up as a one-term President.

by Maria S Mon Jan 02, 2012 2:19 pm

Azhagan Sara!

Sure..an one time Obama Presidency is possible, but anything is possible..and that's what elections interesting. I can come up with a lot of questions Pres. Obama can ask too..his personal "likeability" factor is still high, can never underestimate that.

For whatever reason(s)..as good as Romney looks and sounds, there are obviously plenty of Republicans who don't like/feel comfortable with him..otherwise, he would be soaring now..and "anybody- but him" vote..will not be strong. In the end Republicans may unite..*I would not count a strong independent/third party candidate to split the vote..like Ross Perot did, that may tilt the vote too!

We'll see..got a long way to go!

Maria

by Kris Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:23 pm

MulaiAzhagi wrote:Maria,

Mitt Romney said he is going to ask the American public the same question Ronald Reagan asked in his debate with Jimmy Carter. "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"

Unless the unemployment dips below 6%, Obama will end up as a one-term President.

>>>But the public can question on how the Republicans are going to turn things around. Reagan inspired confidence and despite his simplistic world view -or maybe because of it-was also able to paint a picture of america's can-do spirit being able to win all. The public is more jaded now with the Wall Street shenanigans and the ongoing wars. Carter looked helpless with the Iranian hostage crisis. Obama's elimination of Osama and winding down in Iraq and preventing a massive financial collapse casts him in a much better light. You also have the aspect of Republican infighting. I wouldn't rule out Obama yet.

by charvaka Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:02 pm

Maria S wrote:Having said that - being an independent voter..in the end-general election, my vote and support this time, can't be taken for granted by dear (aside) Pres. Obama and he better not be over confident!

If your vote is up for grabs, Obama can certainly not afford to be anywhere near over-confident. I remember you were -- along with Vivek and me -- among Obama's most ardent supporters on CH in 2008. I think I am still in the Obama camp, because I don't see any of the jokers in the GOP race being able to represent my views any better than Obama does.

by Impedimenta Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:15 pm

Obama's strategy for re elaction? sit back and watch the circus that is the GOP and DO nothing.

stupid three ring circus. Rick santorum? what the who? the 2012 GOP contestants have the worst campaigning strategy in history and are a bunch of confused jokers. Still Romney does stand out but it is clearly not enough. All obama has to do is use his money to comfortably go after the GOP nominee.

Obama is going to win because
a) his campaign strategy is very good - silent and powerful
b) there is no unity in the GOP and the voters are very volatile and unpredictable

Everything else the president has done or claims to have done for the country is highly debatable and his polls are not great as well but none of that will matter.

by doofus_maximus Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:51 pm

not so sure for Obama with unemployment at this high level.

My question is if a GOP nominee wins the election, will there be a war next year.

by charvaka Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:16 pm

The drama heats up, SuCH style... Newt now calls Mitt a liar.

http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2012/01/newt-gingrich-calls-mitt-romney-liar/dlS5sPmYlQF5d8v5dmGOAJ/index.html

by Maria S Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:00 pm

Ah Carvaka!

The good old days in 2008..when you, me and Vivek had a threesome of passion..as in supporting Pres. Obama of course:) I am sure Vivek often thinks about you too..and misses you a little..a little hello occ to your exes..as in ex-acquaintances in Sulekha may not be a bad idea,..well, no advice from me as I digressed big time..sweet memories make me sentimental Sad

.

Ok, back to the Iowa Caucuses..what a night..it was kind of fun!

While Romney is perhaps the likely nominee..he was just blah..like a bad car salesman..his 20 M $..got 8 votes more than the self-described (*paraphrasing) "Rick- the boring guy with his sweater on at the dance..the one girls often first ignore as the nerd..and may take a look later when the dashing guys aren't so much fun"..well, I took a second look as am sure did many- as the nerd, geek, whatever he is..came alive..and sparkled with poetic oratory..while I certainly do not agree with most of his ideology and political positions (doubt I will ever vote for him)..he is real and believes in something- the concern for blue collar workers was kind of refreshing for a Republican..and he is not a hypocrite who offered the blue print for Health Care Reform and now calls it "Obama Care"- and wants to repeal it..in tamil there is a saying:

கொடுத்து பறிப்பவன் கயவன் (the person who gives you something and snatches it- is cruel/evil..really worse than someone who does not give you anything in the first place)

Anyone who watched a wounded Gingrich on the side of Santorum - knows that this is going to be more entertaining now (at least until they go to South Carolina)..And am sure Romney is going to trash Santorum with his zillions..we'll see how Santorum handles the heat and fire..with some conviction or going back to his sweater guy mellow form!

And looks like dear Pres. is getting his war gear on..looks peppy after soaking in the Hawaii sun..no matter how much I want to stay from watching all this..can't help but being drawn in!

Maria

by charvaka Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:15 pm

Maria S wrote:while I certainly do not agree with most of his ideology and political positions (doubt I will ever vote for him)..he is real and believes in something- the concern for blue collar workers was kind of refreshing for a Republican

Same with me. I am happy for Santorum's performance because nobody in his party is talking about the middle class like he is. I hope he continues focusing on middle class issues, unlike the other candidates who want to preserve tax cuts on millionaires at the cost of the middle class.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:26 pm

I am apalled at the way everyone is dissing Sen Santorum.

I am throwing my support behind Sen Santorum - until someone unearths his invisible Child and mistress in Paraguay.

by charvaka Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:30 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:I am apalled at the way everyone is dissing Sen Santorum.

I am throwing my support behind Sen Santorum - until someone unearths his invisible Child and mistress in Paraguay.

Given his virulent homophobia, I am more bullish on the possibility that there may be some gay behind all that.

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