Will Gujarat vote for Congress this time?

Bau thayun is the Gujarati for bahut hua or enough is enough.

And that is what much of Gujarat feels today about its ruling dispensation. The Bharatiya Janata Party has had its day in Gujarat, almost continuously, since 1995. And two decades is a long time.

Much of Gujarat, I have said. Not most, certainly not all of it. How much that ‘much’ is, no one can say. Quantifying feelings is neither easy nor feasible.

Elections in Gujarat are still a few weeks away and, who knows, it could give a majority once again to the Bharatiya Janata Party banne hathe, ‘with both hands’. That is, with generosity. It could return it with a reduced majority, ochhu karine, even a much reduced majority, bau-aj ochhu karine. It could give itself a hung assembly. Or it could show it the door.

No one can predict Gujarat’s resolve.

But there is no denying that much of Gujarat is feeling quite fed up.

‘Fifty-fifty’ said a wise observer, sharing an assessment. ‘Things could change but as of now, it is, fifty-fifty’. Two years ago, it looked like Gujarat was never, ever, going to change its ruling party. Why, even as of one year ago, no one could have even imagined, let alone visualised a change.

So, what has happened in these last few months for someone to actually say there is a ‘fifty-fifty’ chance that the people of Gujarat may opt for a change of government? What has brought this feeling about?

But before going into that, it is important to recall that the Congress was mauled in the last Gujarat Assembly elections of 2012; it was not, as is thought, decimated. While the victorious BJP won 116 seats out of a 182 – a solid victory for incumbent chief minister Narendra Modi – and his party’s vote share of 47.90 % was convincing, Congress’ seat share of 60 and vote share of 38.90 % was not one to sneer at. A look at the state’s map for the 2012 results, constituency-wise, looks like what it was – almost equally coloured between the two. And so it is not as if we are talking of a state which went the whole hog one way. It did not. Gujarat’s 38.90% including its minorities that voted Congress and those that voted for other non-BJP parties, remain more or less in the same frame of mind as they were in 2012. And the 47.90 % who voted BJP in 2012 ? What of them? It would seem they are now introspecting. They are now feeling, evaluating, re-visiting their ‘2012 feeling’.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/columns/is-there-a-new-2017-feeling-in-gujarat-has-the-tide-really-turned/story-xmhJrOKdOqjCV6vFWj1YwO.html