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Game on in Gujarat
by Guest Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:15 am
Ahmedabad: The air over Gujarat definitely smells different. While there is no palpable pro-Congress wave, what can easily be felt is a strong undercurrent of anger against the BJP among all sections of society.
An anger that, if it gains momentum as we get closer to polling day, is bound to turn into an anti-BJP wave.
The anger flows from three capital letters: GST. In a state that revels in business, the goods and services tax has come as a deadly blow that has killed whatever little livelihood people were left with after the assault of demonetisation last November.
No bullet trains or Ro-Ro ferries (a ferry service for vehicles and people that is said to cut the travel time between south Gujarat and peninsular Saurashtra by over six hours) can make up for the fact that " dhando down che (business is down)".
Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi is fully aware of his monumental blunder and has therefore been granting GST relief on items close to the Gujarati heart. For instance, GST on khakhra has been reduced from 12 per cent to 5 per cent. But this is cutting no ice.
"Sales have been down since November last year. People have no money; how will they come and spend? Demonetisation was bad enough and we hadn't recovered from that when we were hit with the GST. It is too much to bear," said Jitesh Shah, who owns a store in one of the flashy malls that have mushroomed across Ahmedabad in the last decade.
His words find an echo among all businessmen, small or medium. "Prices are already high and now we have to add the GST on absolutely everything. Customers just can't afford to buy stuff," said Prafulbhai Patel, who runs a small grocery in a residential area in what is called "New Ahmedabad".
"On top of that, I'm completely confused. How am I supposed to file my returns every month? The rules are changing every day and I just can't cope with it. Modi should have thought about how it would affect us before he made his grand announcement," a visibly angry Patel added.
Traders and small and medium businessmen have been the backbone of the BJP vote bank across the country. It's precisely because of Gujarat's mercantile character that the party chose the state as its laboratory more than three decades ago.
That decision has brought the BJP rich dividends. It has enjoyed uninterrupted power here for more than 22 years, and Gujarat has provided the "model" for the BJP's first majority government at the Centre.
Gujarat has also given the country its current Prime Minister and BJP president; so it had expected special treatment. Instead, it got demonetisation and the GST.
"Modi took credit for our hard work (towards Gujarat's development), became the Prime Minister and repaid us with losses," said Shantibhai, who owns a small family-run gold jewellery shop in Ahmedabad's Old City.
There is a sense of anger that big business has not been touched while the small and medium trader is being squeezed. Surprisingly, Modi has hit Gujaratis where it hurts them the most - their pockets - and this they are not ready to forgive easily.
Despite putting on a brave face and saying this election would be a cakewalk like the last few, the BJP is fully aware that it is dealing with 22 years' worth of anti-incumbency that has finally bubbled to the surface in the past one year.
A blitzkrieg of rallies by Modi and his ministers will not be enough to turn the tide this time. Modi will have to dig deep into his bag of tricks and bring out something extraordinary to dissipate this anger.
https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/in-gujarat-rage-feeds-on-3-letters-189180
An anger that, if it gains momentum as we get closer to polling day, is bound to turn into an anti-BJP wave.
The anger flows from three capital letters: GST. In a state that revels in business, the goods and services tax has come as a deadly blow that has killed whatever little livelihood people were left with after the assault of demonetisation last November.
No bullet trains or Ro-Ro ferries (a ferry service for vehicles and people that is said to cut the travel time between south Gujarat and peninsular Saurashtra by over six hours) can make up for the fact that " dhando down che (business is down)".
Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi is fully aware of his monumental blunder and has therefore been granting GST relief on items close to the Gujarati heart. For instance, GST on khakhra has been reduced from 12 per cent to 5 per cent. But this is cutting no ice.
"Sales have been down since November last year. People have no money; how will they come and spend? Demonetisation was bad enough and we hadn't recovered from that when we were hit with the GST. It is too much to bear," said Jitesh Shah, who owns a store in one of the flashy malls that have mushroomed across Ahmedabad in the last decade.
His words find an echo among all businessmen, small or medium. "Prices are already high and now we have to add the GST on absolutely everything. Customers just can't afford to buy stuff," said Prafulbhai Patel, who runs a small grocery in a residential area in what is called "New Ahmedabad".
"On top of that, I'm completely confused. How am I supposed to file my returns every month? The rules are changing every day and I just can't cope with it. Modi should have thought about how it would affect us before he made his grand announcement," a visibly angry Patel added.
Traders and small and medium businessmen have been the backbone of the BJP vote bank across the country. It's precisely because of Gujarat's mercantile character that the party chose the state as its laboratory more than three decades ago.
That decision has brought the BJP rich dividends. It has enjoyed uninterrupted power here for more than 22 years, and Gujarat has provided the "model" for the BJP's first majority government at the Centre.
Gujarat has also given the country its current Prime Minister and BJP president; so it had expected special treatment. Instead, it got demonetisation and the GST.
"Modi took credit for our hard work (towards Gujarat's development), became the Prime Minister and repaid us with losses," said Shantibhai, who owns a small family-run gold jewellery shop in Ahmedabad's Old City.
There is a sense of anger that big business has not been touched while the small and medium trader is being squeezed. Surprisingly, Modi has hit Gujaratis where it hurts them the most - their pockets - and this they are not ready to forgive easily.
Despite putting on a brave face and saying this election would be a cakewalk like the last few, the BJP is fully aware that it is dealing with 22 years' worth of anti-incumbency that has finally bubbled to the surface in the past one year.
A blitzkrieg of rallies by Modi and his ministers will not be enough to turn the tide this time. Modi will have to dig deep into his bag of tricks and bring out something extraordinary to dissipate this anger.
https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/in-gujarat-rage-feeds-on-3-letters-189180
Guest- Guest
Re: Game on in Gujarat
by Guest Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:17 am
Ahmedabad: The BJP has plastered Gujarat with posters of Narendra Modi with the words " Hoon vikas chu, hoon Gujarat chu (I am development, I am Gujarat)" emblazoned across them. But in this election, apart from the hardcore RSS-BJP voter, Gujaratis are not buying it.
"How many times will you flog the same horse? They have been in power far too long and become arrogant. This time they will be taught a lesson. Look at the unemployment figures. Where are the jobs he promised?" asks Hitesh Kumar, a BA graduate who has not been able to secure proper work since he left college two years ago.
Some 20 lakh youths are registered as unemployed in Gujarat while a similar number are out of work but do not find themselves on the employment bureau records.
Sentiments similar to Kumar's are heard across the urban middle classes, which had become enamoured of Modi's sloganeering and clever catchphrases. These phrases have come back to bite him.
The " Vikas gando thayo che (Development has gone mad)" slogan has taken on a life of its own on the social media. Anti-Modi jokes in Gujarati, something uncommon two years ago, freely circulate within WhatsApp groups. His name doesn't evoke respect or reverence any more.
Women, once considered Modi fans, accuse him of creating the economic crisis.
"On the one hand vegetable prices are on fire, and on the other our incomes are going down. How are we supposed to run our homes?" says Harshaben Shah, a homemaker.
"There is no middle class any more. There is the very rich, who are getting richer, and the rest of us, who are just getting poorer."
The misery is being blamed on the demonetisation and the goods and services tax - Modi's two big-ticket decisions.
During previous elections in 2002, 2007 and 2012, Modi had made himself synonymous with Gujarat and successfully used the charge of the Centre hurting the state's " asmita (pride)" to win sympathy and votes. This time, he is the Centre and cannot shift the blame to anyone.
For Gujaratis, there is no Modi mystique - after all, he is one of them and they have watched him grow from RSS pracharak to chief minister and then Prime Minister. They had a hand in his rise. Now the "Modi magic" is waning.
"Modi's meetings no longer have the rock concert feel of earlier and he is so upset by the thinner crowds that he fumbles and makes mistakes like extending his 'best wishes to gaumatas (cows)' in his speeches," said a local journalist who did not want to be named for fear of reprisal.
The administration is being told to ensure that "sahib's next meeting" has a better turnout.
For Modi, this is a do-or-die election. He cannot afford to lose in his home state, which he has nurtured for the past 15 years and which is the "model" he sold to the rest of the country to catapult himself to Delhi. Any losses here will have a big psychological impact on the 2019 general election.
Voters are sure that the "master manipulators" - Modi and BJP president Amit Shah - will try to turn the BJP's fortunes around with the help of the party's "dirty tricks" department.
"He will order a 'surgical strike' in the last week before polling. He can do anything," says Ketan Makwana, a gas cylinder distributor.
So far, all the attempts at polarising religious communities, discrediting Opposition leaders with sting operations and fake videos, and discovering so-called Islamic State agents in Gujarat have failed to beat the anti-incumbency.
As electioneering gears up for the final leg, apprehensions of " kashu motu kar se (something big will be done)" are also rising.
https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/magic-spell-yields-to-dirty-trick-fear-189446
"How many times will you flog the same horse? They have been in power far too long and become arrogant. This time they will be taught a lesson. Look at the unemployment figures. Where are the jobs he promised?" asks Hitesh Kumar, a BA graduate who has not been able to secure proper work since he left college two years ago.
Some 20 lakh youths are registered as unemployed in Gujarat while a similar number are out of work but do not find themselves on the employment bureau records.
Sentiments similar to Kumar's are heard across the urban middle classes, which had become enamoured of Modi's sloganeering and clever catchphrases. These phrases have come back to bite him.
The " Vikas gando thayo che (Development has gone mad)" slogan has taken on a life of its own on the social media. Anti-Modi jokes in Gujarati, something uncommon two years ago, freely circulate within WhatsApp groups. His name doesn't evoke respect or reverence any more.
Women, once considered Modi fans, accuse him of creating the economic crisis.
"On the one hand vegetable prices are on fire, and on the other our incomes are going down. How are we supposed to run our homes?" says Harshaben Shah, a homemaker.
"There is no middle class any more. There is the very rich, who are getting richer, and the rest of us, who are just getting poorer."
The misery is being blamed on the demonetisation and the goods and services tax - Modi's two big-ticket decisions.
During previous elections in 2002, 2007 and 2012, Modi had made himself synonymous with Gujarat and successfully used the charge of the Centre hurting the state's " asmita (pride)" to win sympathy and votes. This time, he is the Centre and cannot shift the blame to anyone.
For Gujaratis, there is no Modi mystique - after all, he is one of them and they have watched him grow from RSS pracharak to chief minister and then Prime Minister. They had a hand in his rise. Now the "Modi magic" is waning.
"Modi's meetings no longer have the rock concert feel of earlier and he is so upset by the thinner crowds that he fumbles and makes mistakes like extending his 'best wishes to gaumatas (cows)' in his speeches," said a local journalist who did not want to be named for fear of reprisal.
The administration is being told to ensure that "sahib's next meeting" has a better turnout.
For Modi, this is a do-or-die election. He cannot afford to lose in his home state, which he has nurtured for the past 15 years and which is the "model" he sold to the rest of the country to catapult himself to Delhi. Any losses here will have a big psychological impact on the 2019 general election.
Voters are sure that the "master manipulators" - Modi and BJP president Amit Shah - will try to turn the BJP's fortunes around with the help of the party's "dirty tricks" department.
"He will order a 'surgical strike' in the last week before polling. He can do anything," says Ketan Makwana, a gas cylinder distributor.
So far, all the attempts at polarising religious communities, discrediting Opposition leaders with sting operations and fake videos, and discovering so-called Islamic State agents in Gujarat have failed to beat the anti-incumbency.
As electioneering gears up for the final leg, apprehensions of " kashu motu kar se (something big will be done)" are also rising.
https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/magic-spell-yields-to-dirty-trick-fear-189446
Guest- Guest
Re: Game on in Gujarat
by Guest Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:05 pm
Low turnout greets Modi in Gujarat's Chalala
Sunil Raghu, Chalala (Amreli), DH News Service, Nov 28 2017, 1:05 IST
The ground should have been overflowing with people, especially when a prime minister - that too, a PM like Narendra Modi - came to address the rally. Sadly, it was not even half full. And that was the general observation of those in the crowd, as they walked out of the Gayatri Mandir Ground near Chalala in Dhari of the Patel-dominated Amreli district of Saurashtra.
Though not sparse, the number of empty chairs at the venue could make any candidate sweat. Especially when the crowd was from five different constituencies of the district. "The Patels were generally absent and Kolis were here in huge numbers," said Balubhai of Chalala village. "The other problem is that this entire belt of Rajula-Dhari is under the grip of chikungunya and dengue. This could also be the reason for the low turnout," he said.
Just outside the venue, three-four youngsters passed by, mumbling 'Jai Sardar' among themselves, throwing a glance at the rally ground.
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/645177/low-turnout-greets-modi-gujarats.html
Sunil Raghu, Chalala (Amreli), DH News Service, Nov 28 2017, 1:05 IST
The ground should have been overflowing with people, especially when a prime minister - that too, a PM like Narendra Modi - came to address the rally. Sadly, it was not even half full. And that was the general observation of those in the crowd, as they walked out of the Gayatri Mandir Ground near Chalala in Dhari of the Patel-dominated Amreli district of Saurashtra.
Though not sparse, the number of empty chairs at the venue could make any candidate sweat. Especially when the crowd was from five different constituencies of the district. "The Patels were generally absent and Kolis were here in huge numbers," said Balubhai of Chalala village. "The other problem is that this entire belt of Rajula-Dhari is under the grip of chikungunya and dengue. This could also be the reason for the low turnout," he said.
Just outside the venue, three-four youngsters passed by, mumbling 'Jai Sardar' among themselves, throwing a glance at the rally ground.
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/645177/low-turnout-greets-modi-gujarats.html
Guest- Guest
Re: Game on in Gujarat
by Guest Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:26 pm
Ahmedabad: It can't get better than this for the Congress in Gujarat. After 22 years in the political wilderness, the stars finally seem to be aligning in the party's favour and this is the best opportunity it will get to snatch the state back from the BJP.
Rahul Gandhi is certainly creating a buzz in a state that has tired of hearing " mitron" and "mara bhaio ane beno". Rahul's meetings are drawing large crowds and his speeches are receiving loud cheers, but will it be enough to tame the lion in his den?
"The problem is not with Rahul or Sonia Gandhi, who are working very hard to regain Gujarat. It is with the state leadership, which has a 'setting' with the BJP that allows the latter to win," said a Congress worker who did not want to be named.
Many Congress workers talk of this "setting" (arrangement), under which the BJP apparently allows 40 to 50 sitting Congress MLAs to win in return for the BJP being allowed to win the remaining 130-40 seats.
"For the last two decades the match has been fixed here, but this time it looks a little different with so many new young players," the Congress worker said.
The "new players" are the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mevani, who are creating excitement in the anti-BJP camp. They are speaking the language of the youth of their communities - the Patels, OBCs and Dalits, respectively - and are, along with Rahul, also enthusing the Congress youth who are desperate for a comeback.
The last time the Congress formed a government on its own in Gujarat was in 1985 when Madhavsinh Solanki won 149 of the 182 seats, the highest tally ever for any party.
Narendra Modi has failed to break this record even at the height of his popularity (in 2002, he won only 127 seats). Hence, the BJP's target of 150 seats in this election.
Between 1985 and 1990, the Gujarat Congress witnessed its worst infighting, which took place between its three tallest leaders: Solanki, Amarsinh Chaudhary and Ahmed Patel.
Patel eventually prevailed by establishing himself first as the treasurer of the All India Congress Committee and then as the political aide to Sonia.
It is at Patel's door that the blame lies for the decimation of the Congress in Gujarat. To safeguard his own position in Delhi, Patel refused to allow any strong leader to emerge in Gujarat. The net result was almost 30 years of electoral drought for the Congress.
Solanki, whose son Bharat is now the state Congress president, had won the massive mandate in 1985 by stitching together a caste combination of Kshatriya, Harijan (Dalit), Adivasi and Muslim, better known as "Kham".
The BJP broke this alliance by projecting the Congress as a party for Muslims alone and consolidating the rest under the Hindutva banner.
From 2002 onwards, Modi has won votes as the "Hindu hriday samrat (king of Hindu hearts)", scare-mongering against Muslims and polarising voters on religious lines.
"This time it is not a Hindu vs Muslim election. The Hindus are unhappy with the BJP and it is us who decide who wins in Gujarat," said Bhavesh Patel, an IT consultant.
The Congress is playing its cards carefully, denying the BJP the opportunity to call it a Muslim party. It has replaced the "m" in "Kham" with a "p" for Patidar.
The Patidars (Patels) are a very influential community in Gujarat and had, along with the upper caste Brahmins and Baniyas, formed the core of the BJP support here. By getting Hardik on its side, the Congress has killed two birds with one stone - broken the BJP's core vote bank and shored up its own support base.
If the Congress fails to make major gains in Gujarat this time, the talk of "setting" and "match-fixing" will have proved correct and the party high command would need to pull the entire state organisation down and start with completely new faces.
https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/match-fixing-hurdle-for-rahul-allies-189709
Rahul Gandhi is certainly creating a buzz in a state that has tired of hearing " mitron" and "mara bhaio ane beno". Rahul's meetings are drawing large crowds and his speeches are receiving loud cheers, but will it be enough to tame the lion in his den?
"The problem is not with Rahul or Sonia Gandhi, who are working very hard to regain Gujarat. It is with the state leadership, which has a 'setting' with the BJP that allows the latter to win," said a Congress worker who did not want to be named.
Many Congress workers talk of this "setting" (arrangement), under which the BJP apparently allows 40 to 50 sitting Congress MLAs to win in return for the BJP being allowed to win the remaining 130-40 seats.
"For the last two decades the match has been fixed here, but this time it looks a little different with so many new young players," the Congress worker said.
The "new players" are the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mevani, who are creating excitement in the anti-BJP camp. They are speaking the language of the youth of their communities - the Patels, OBCs and Dalits, respectively - and are, along with Rahul, also enthusing the Congress youth who are desperate for a comeback.
The last time the Congress formed a government on its own in Gujarat was in 1985 when Madhavsinh Solanki won 149 of the 182 seats, the highest tally ever for any party.
Narendra Modi has failed to break this record even at the height of his popularity (in 2002, he won only 127 seats). Hence, the BJP's target of 150 seats in this election.
Between 1985 and 1990, the Gujarat Congress witnessed its worst infighting, which took place between its three tallest leaders: Solanki, Amarsinh Chaudhary and Ahmed Patel.
Patel eventually prevailed by establishing himself first as the treasurer of the All India Congress Committee and then as the political aide to Sonia.
It is at Patel's door that the blame lies for the decimation of the Congress in Gujarat. To safeguard his own position in Delhi, Patel refused to allow any strong leader to emerge in Gujarat. The net result was almost 30 years of electoral drought for the Congress.
Solanki, whose son Bharat is now the state Congress president, had won the massive mandate in 1985 by stitching together a caste combination of Kshatriya, Harijan (Dalit), Adivasi and Muslim, better known as "Kham".
The BJP broke this alliance by projecting the Congress as a party for Muslims alone and consolidating the rest under the Hindutva banner.
From 2002 onwards, Modi has won votes as the "Hindu hriday samrat (king of Hindu hearts)", scare-mongering against Muslims and polarising voters on religious lines.
"This time it is not a Hindu vs Muslim election. The Hindus are unhappy with the BJP and it is us who decide who wins in Gujarat," said Bhavesh Patel, an IT consultant.
The Congress is playing its cards carefully, denying the BJP the opportunity to call it a Muslim party. It has replaced the "m" in "Kham" with a "p" for Patidar.
The Patidars (Patels) are a very influential community in Gujarat and had, along with the upper caste Brahmins and Baniyas, formed the core of the BJP support here. By getting Hardik on its side, the Congress has killed two birds with one stone - broken the BJP's core vote bank and shored up its own support base.
If the Congress fails to make major gains in Gujarat this time, the talk of "setting" and "match-fixing" will have proved correct and the party high command would need to pull the entire state organisation down and start with completely new faces.
https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/match-fixing-hurdle-for-rahul-allies-189709
Guest- Guest
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