nate silver's prediction the last friday before the election

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nov-1-the-simple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/#more-37035

he gives the president 80+% odds of winning. i hope he is right. he is staking his career as a statistician on this. this is turning out to be stomach churning.

I think he should be right. With this morning (NFP - Non Farm Payroll) data release (which they say historically +ve towards current president). And Obama keeps smiling in his Ohio address this morning! And $ gaining against Eur which happens in last months of the year.

I think it is BO for WH next 4 more years!

wait, you needed nate to tell you this? i don't like you all anymore. it was all over after the lovefest between obama/christie in a hugely democratic NJ to begin with. and the newly released "no of jobs added" numbers.

fine, be that way.

he just updated it this morning. romney's odds - 16.3%. ouch!

the only question is whether obama's margin is large enough to compensate for the voter fraud that the GoP will inflict on the nation.

It appears that the final result will be depends on the voting patterns in Nevada/Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio & Virginia, the key toss up states.

realclearpolitics.com lists Obama leading with slender margins in almost all of these states except Virginia.

rawemotions wrote:It appears that the final result will be depends on the voting patterns in Nevada/Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio & Virginia, the key toss up states.

realclearpolitics.com lists Obama leading with slender margins in almost all of these states except Virginia.

i like nate silver's analysis more than rcp.

silver's analysis goes beyond merely tallying polls like rcp does. he calculates win probabilities for the candidates.

No poll reading, predictions this weekend for me.

Whether our votes in our states make a difference or not in the bigger electoral map..working hard/community organizing to make sure people vote on Tuesday..and of course, hoping with fingers crossed:)

It's exciting!

Hope the latest tirade launched by the GoP on food stamp recipients does some more damage. The recipients include:

Military personnel

Farmers and farm workers

significant non-salaried hourly wage earners - the counter people in most business establishments

Most laid off non-salary people

Disabled people

etc.


Of course, let us not talk about the 0-tax and tax refund that huge corporations got, including GE and Exxon.

or the darling of Minty - the "small" businesses

Note the list of "best small businesses" which are listed on the stock exchange...REALLY?


why can't the frikkin Dems focus on such bogus Corporate welfare and "Small Business" favors?

Here is a deal: White collar small businesses should be exmpt from any Tax breaks - create a separate class of small business that involve MANUAL hard labor that employs 95% of non-college grads.

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:silver's analysis goes beyond merely tallying polls like rcp does. he calculates win probabilities for the candidates.

RCP is more like a feedreader, it gives links to all the articles on election, including some of Nate's articles.

Regarding Nate's prediction, the probabilities are only as good as the underlying model, and the assumptions behind the extrapolation of data from prior years to this year.

According to his probability distribution, Obama is most likely to come out with 330 seats in electoral college. That means he retain all the toss-up states except Virginia OR north carolina. That is a long way off from RCP, which projects Romney leads in Florida & Virginia & North Carolina.

nate's analysis is based on multiple polls. he does explain all his assumptions. which ones do you disagree with?

I do not know many of those assumptions well enough to comment on them. Some of them look like rules of thumb (like he mentions he has factored in an inherent democratic bias etc..).

All I am saying is that RCP tries to take an average of all the polls, when it gives the leads position. Nate's peak of the distribution is at 330. This is in variance from a number you will get if you just take rcp's sure seats of Obama 201 + portion of toss-up states he is leading. That comes to somewhere around { 201 + 146 - states (where Romney leads) } = 347 - (29+15+13) = around 290 seats. Comfortable to win, but nowhere close to 330.

nate's methods are very straightforward.

here is another historically respected analysis:

http://election.princeton.edu/

Raw,
Welcome. Have not seen your posts in a long time.
nate wrote a detailed article nytimes explaining his method. He is ok with numbers part when combined with his explanations. There is still some room between numbers and what they mean on nov 6. Like a good statistician nate is putting a definitive conclusion out there without cya qualifiers.
My observation is that numbers stabilized in the last five days. Storm did not help romney. It maynot have hurt obama. Looking at the latest numbers obama has a better chance of winning. Obama can match romneys election day ground game. Narrow victory for obama is my call.

i think the storm catalyzed bromance between the NJ governor and the prez may have actually hurt romney.

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:nate's methods are very straightforward.

here is another historically respected analysis:

http://election.princeton.edu/

This website projects a 100 vote difference in electoral votes. I do not think it is going to be so much. His so called EV indicator (whatever that means) indicates a yellow band, and a red band. If we go by that the lower end of the yellow band is around 280, the higher end is around 340. Historically the chances of a president losing second term is low.

There are enough factors to think that this election will be close and difficult to predict. During McCAIN - Obama so many key policy differences were not there. That is not the case now with clear contrasting policy differences. This can cut across traditional vote bank based predictions.

Republicans have closed rank with Romney, and he is likely to get solid support there. He has more support among independents, but has low support among Hispanics. This makes Florida tough to predict with heavy Cuban-American Latinos presence. It is not clear which way, the baby boomers (50-55) will vote, given Romney's stress on reforming Medicare. But it also depends upon how many come out to vote. It will also depend upon whether republicans can match David Axelrod in his formidable, get out the vote machinery.

If Obama wins I think it will be in the lower end of the yellow band (280 to 310 ish around 290).

truthbetold wrote:Raw,
Welcome. Have not seen your posts in a long time.
nate wrote a detailed article nytimes explaining his method. He is ok with numbers part when combined with his explanations. There is still some room between numbers and what they mean on nov 6. Like a good statistician nate is putting a definitive conclusion out there without cya qualifiers.
My observation is that numbers stabilized in the last five days. Storm did not help romney. It maynot have hurt obama. Looking at the latest numbers obama has a better chance of winning. Obama can match romneys election day ground game. Narrow victory for obama is my call.

Thanks for welcoming me. Haven't seen many of your posts either. Many folks changed their names when they switched over from Sulekha to such, and it took me a little while to figure out who is who. Storm influencing voting in the states affected, because people do not think about Voting, when their homes are under-water (literally) makes sense.

However, I think too much is being made about effect of storm on other states. People are not that stupid, to change their opinions just because Obama is seen with Chris Christie for a day. It was Obama's job, and it will be wrong for Chris not to receive him. It is a stretch to assume that Obama will actually work better with republicans in second term, just because he was seen with Chris. His past record of four years does not indicate so, and republicans are very cut up with that. This has energized their base a lot.

I for one think that he will turn more left second term on social/climate change issues (not sure if anything is left here though), be more bold & adventurous on foreign policy issues ( with focus on middle east & securing Afghanistan, which could possibly involve placating Pakistan to any extent) but will work with republicans well on the economy and fiscal issues.

Most analysts haven't caught on this upcoming issue (Obama possibly placating Pakistan) to settle Afghanistan. But I feel there is danger for India here, since Clinton has indicated that she may not stay on as Secretary of state. She handled that fine balance on Pakistan with finesse (carrot/stick policy).

In my other reply to Max, I have explained the key factors of importance for Romney. This election is difficult to predict because of the way voters might react to the contrasting policies. Economy is the foremost issue, and it affects everybody. Medicare/Social security are key issues and it affects everybody. I feel the voting might even cut across party lines and if that happens then it will be a statistician's nightmare.

But then historically very few presidents have been kicked out after first term.
If Obama wins, I do not think it will be as high 330/340, and in that sense I agree with your margin of victory.

i hope the republicans lose. if they lose, here's why they would have lost (from an earlier post of mine):

the GOP is fast becoming the party of crotch-obsessed, racist, homophobic, religious yahoos who believe that one day romney's cayman island retirement accounts will trickle down and buy them a cheap pair of sneakers.

they have been driven out of the west coast, the northeast, and increasingly the midwest and all portions of the US which enjoy relative economic prosperity and has more thinking people.

they are increasingly being herded into a geographical corner where they'll all rape and eat each other. the reason some of them don't support abortion even in cases of incest is because they realize that's the only way they can increase their party enrollment.

If you want a balanced critique of both candidates, read this. It is a good one.

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/editor/late-voting

BTW , what do you think will be the stock market's reaction to Obama win / less probable Romney Win ?

it is like Romney fighting Obama - the defending champion. A draw means its a win for the defending champion.

Romney should have at least 5% lead to have any chance. Incumbency has a hidden 5% advantage.

Think Carter and Reagan - the popular vote was close, despite the fact the economy was in the ruins, Iran affair, and carter refusing to even campaign.

What I want is a loss for the reps in the congress.

Without that Obama will not be able to finish his agenda.

Raw,
I am here at such for more than a year but still have problems with matching user names of sulekha and such. Looks like the whole crowd is participating again. That brings more diversity to discussion. These days i am more of a weekend warrior on this forum.

Back to election prediction.

My observation of events leads me to believe that it is republicans who decided to be non cooperative after 2008. Their senate leader mitch m said so. Bolstered by 2010 victory of tea party, republican moderates were shoved aside, extreme leaders like eric kantor took over and became complete obstructionists. The debt ceiling drama was an obscene display of extreme irrational partisanship at an inappropriate economic moment. Republicans should have been thrown out just for that reason.

Raw,
the electoral college margin is not easy to model statistically compared to popular vote and who is likely to win. In most cases stat people start with state wise numbers, and come up with a qualitative judgement. When a state shows leads above 5% over a period of time the result is simple to predict. But with about 8 to 10 states in 2% difference over several weeks, it is statistically difficult to predict. In this case obama can run the table and get a large electoral college lead but a negligible popular vote lead.
Nates claim of 80% certainty is of no practical value than saying 55% certainty. If he can.
extend his method to stock market and give us a tool to predict the certainty of its moves then one can verify . A one time event with a mutually exclusive outcome does not prove or disprove anything.

Romney has 190 (so called safe republication electoral votes).

The three most important swing states for Romney tomorrow is Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. Based on rcp (realclearpolitics data, these three states have the highest chances for him to win electoral votes. On top of them he needs 23 more to get to 270.

Those three are essential (they add up to 247), however based on latest polls he is now trailing (within the sampling error) in Virginia. This should be very worrying for Romney/Ryan.

If by late evening tomorrow if he loses any of these three it is all over, and we can just stop tuning in, unless by a miracle he compensates one of them with PA or MI (states with democratic registration advantages).

If he wins these three, he has a few possible ways to get to 270

CO+Wisconsin+ IOWA
CO+Wisconsin+ NH + (he needs one extra in Maine)
CO+Ohio
CO+MI

Unfortunately he is also trailing in CO slightly too.

Winning PA , MI is possible only if mainstream Dems vote for Romney.
Ohio is tough to predict as there is strong Union support for Obama.
WI again Obama has a 4 point lead according to rcp.

So for any of these routes he needs votes from Dems.
Some of the Senior Dems are not with Obama as they were in 2008, due to his endorsement of Gay Marriage act.

So if he exceeds 256 (247 + CO), then it will most probably due to voting by Dems in his favor.

rawemotions wrote:Romney has 190 (so called safe republication electoral votes).

The three most important swing states for Romney tomorrow is Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. Based on rcp (realclearpolitics data, these three states have the highest chances for him to win electoral votes. On top of them he needs 23 more to get to 270.

Those three are essential (they add up to 247), however based on latest polls he is now trailing (within the sampling error) in Virginia. This should be very worrying for Romney/Ryan.

If by late evening tomorrow if he loses any of these three it is all over, and we can just stop tuning in, unless by a miracle he compensates one of them with PA or MI (states with democratic registration advantages).

If he wins these three, he has a few possible ways to get to 270

CO+Wisconsin+ IOWA
CO+Wisconsin+ NH + (he needs one extra in Maine)
CO+Ohio
CO+MI

Unfortunately he is also trailing in CO slightly too.

Winning PA , MI is possible only if mainstream Dems vote for Romney.
Ohio is tough to predict as there is strong Union support for Obama.
WI again Obama has a 4 point lead according to rcp.

So for any of these routes he needs votes from Dems.
Some of the Senior Dems are not with Obama as they were in 2008, due to his endorsement of Gay Marriage act.

So if he exceeds 256 (247 + CO), then it will most probably due to voting by Dems in his favor.

don't discount voter suppression and other dirty tactics by the GOP.

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:don't discount voter suppression and other dirty tactics by the GOP.

I keep getting reports of Voter mis-information in rcp in favor of GOP. But then I do not understand why the Dems would be against compulsory ID , if no undocumented folks can register to vote. So probably, little bit of GOTV tactics goes on in both parties.

Also it is interesting that unlike in India, campaigning goes on till last minute. There are no laws to prevent one party from transporting voters to polling booths, and exit polls are allowed to be announced in the same day.

On the whole, I think Dems have countered with early voting advantages and some of the Dems famed GOTV (Get out the vote machinery). So Dems are making sure that almost everyone of their supporters vote for them in Swing states like Florida.

However, at least on internet, Dems are outspending Republicans in this election. Every website I go to there is an ad from Obama reminding me to vote and asking me to use the ad to figure out the polling location.