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Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by Merlot Daruwala Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:05 am
It's fashionable to dismiss the economic development in India over the last two decades as benefiting only the crony capitalists, the very rich etc. But the data proves otherwise. Here's a very interesting article which throws up some very surprising insights...
....we find the poverty head count ratio in Andhra Pradesh in 1993-94 was 44% of the total population. Drilling further, we find a poverty level of 35.2% in urban areas and 48.1% in rural areas. Fast forward to the 2011-2012 numbers, and we find poverty levels in Andhra Pradesh have dropped to 9.2%, with a rural poverty rate of 10.96% and an urban poverty rate of 5.81%. This implies that the state had a decline of rural poverty of 37.1 percentage points and a decline of 29.3 percentage points in urban poverty and an overall reduction in poverty of 35.4 percentage, which is huge and compares well even with China, where poverty went down by 40.6 percentage points between 1993 and 2008.
....In fact, in 1993, Andhra Pradesh belonged in the same category as Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh among the worst performing states in the country, and since then has had a dramatic turnaround. There is also no criticism that can be levelled about growth favouring urban areas, since we’ve seen earlier that poverty has come down equally in urban and rural areas. It is important to mention here that Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have also done well in reducing poverty. In fact, all three states had poverty rates similar to Uttar Pradesh back in 1993 and Karnataka had a poverty rate higher than Uttar Pradesh back then, which most readers will likely find surprising.
What caused the turnaround in Andhra Pradesh? We believe it was strong and visionary leadership focused on rapid economic growth, and the credit belongs equally to chief ministers N. Chandrababu Naidu and Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy. Naidu, who came to power in 1995, believed that investment and growth mattered above all. In fact, Naidu’s vision 20-20 envisioned a new paradigm for government, from being a controller of the economy, to an enabler of its growth.....
Reddy, who campaigned in 2004 on a populist platform, turned out to be a savvy operator who did not in fact roll back any of Naidu’s reforms as feared. In fact he strengthened many of them, making the state a top destination for investment. Having understood that redistribution without wealth creation was a non-starter, he focused on rapid growth, the gains of which he partially redistributed through popular social programmes....
....we find the poverty head count ratio in Andhra Pradesh in 1993-94 was 44% of the total population. Drilling further, we find a poverty level of 35.2% in urban areas and 48.1% in rural areas. Fast forward to the 2011-2012 numbers, and we find poverty levels in Andhra Pradesh have dropped to 9.2%, with a rural poverty rate of 10.96% and an urban poverty rate of 5.81%. This implies that the state had a decline of rural poverty of 37.1 percentage points and a decline of 29.3 percentage points in urban poverty and an overall reduction in poverty of 35.4 percentage, which is huge and compares well even with China, where poverty went down by 40.6 percentage points between 1993 and 2008.
....In fact, in 1993, Andhra Pradesh belonged in the same category as Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh among the worst performing states in the country, and since then has had a dramatic turnaround. There is also no criticism that can be levelled about growth favouring urban areas, since we’ve seen earlier that poverty has come down equally in urban and rural areas. It is important to mention here that Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have also done well in reducing poverty. In fact, all three states had poverty rates similar to Uttar Pradesh back in 1993 and Karnataka had a poverty rate higher than Uttar Pradesh back then, which most readers will likely find surprising.
What caused the turnaround in Andhra Pradesh? We believe it was strong and visionary leadership focused on rapid economic growth, and the credit belongs equally to chief ministers N. Chandrababu Naidu and Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy. Naidu, who came to power in 1995, believed that investment and growth mattered above all. In fact, Naidu’s vision 20-20 envisioned a new paradigm for government, from being a controller of the economy, to an enabler of its growth.....
Reddy, who campaigned in 2004 on a populist platform, turned out to be a savvy operator who did not in fact roll back any of Naidu’s reforms as feared. In fact he strengthened many of them, making the state a top destination for investment. Having understood that redistribution without wealth creation was a non-starter, he focused on rapid growth, the gains of which he partially redistributed through popular social programmes....
Merlot Daruwala- Posts : 5005
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Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by confuzzled dude Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:18 am
Merlot... You CONArtist.... We don't believe you
confuzzled dude- Posts : 10205
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Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by Vakavaka Pakapaka Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:21 am
YSR actually squandered away the prosperity that CBN was building. His pork-barrel approach (typical CONman) helped in getting votes.
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Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by confuzzled dude Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:25 am
C'mon Saar be objective; CBN poked fun of farmers and poor his was so consumed with hite ch cityVakavaka Pakapaka wrote:YSR actually squandered away the prosperity that CBN was building. His pork-barrel approach (typical CONman) helped in getting votes.
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Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by Vakavaka Pakapaka Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:29 am
YSR won because he gave free electricity (and buffaloes, loans, etc.) to farmers. (You are right. CBN made wrong calculations. He now admits.)confuzzled dude wrote:C'mon Saar be objective; CBN poked fun of farmers and poor his was so consumed with hite ch cityVakavaka Pakapaka wrote:YSR actually squandered away the prosperity that CBN was building. His pork-barrel approach (typical CONman) helped in getting votes.
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Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by rawemotions Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:50 am
Do we have Debt Data of AP during these years. That will give us a better idea of the extent of Pork Barrel Spending.Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:YSR actually squandered away the prosperity that CBN was building. His pork-barrel approach (typical CONman) helped in getting votes.
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Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by confuzzled dude Tue Apr 29, 2014 1:09 am
I gave it a week or two ago it is less than Gujarat's on per capita basis.rawemotions wrote:Do we have Debt Data of AP during these years. That will give us a better idea of the extent of Pork Barrel Spending.Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:YSR actually squandered away the prosperity that CBN was building. His pork-barrel approach (typical CONman) helped in getting votes.
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Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by truthbetold Tue Apr 29, 2014 4:33 am
Merlot and CD
1. On the basis of using same metrics, poverty rate does show improvement. For a non political serious observer, these numbers are based on inadequate poverty base lines. India and A.P. has probably 50% of its population below what can be estimated as poverty line.
2. The improvement above should be compared between the rate of decline of poverty rate before 1990s and after 1990s. The strategic shift of economic policies caused a dramatic change in the rate of poverty rate (using the govt definition). The fundamental that this fact supports is that you have to have growth oriented policies to create wealth. Once you create wealth, the pull of indian socalled socialist policies, irrespective of party in governance there will be a reduction in poverty.
But as VP pointed above, if the priority shifts from growth and development to subsidy and corruption, both wealth generation and the ability to distribute newly generated wealth will go down. Hence the rejection of congress by people.
The key to india's statble growth is priorirty to growth oriented policies with humane wealth distribution policies.
1. On the basis of using same metrics, poverty rate does show improvement. For a non political serious observer, these numbers are based on inadequate poverty base lines. India and A.P. has probably 50% of its population below what can be estimated as poverty line.
2. The improvement above should be compared between the rate of decline of poverty rate before 1990s and after 1990s. The strategic shift of economic policies caused a dramatic change in the rate of poverty rate (using the govt definition). The fundamental that this fact supports is that you have to have growth oriented policies to create wealth. Once you create wealth, the pull of indian socalled socialist policies, irrespective of party in governance there will be a reduction in poverty.
But as VP pointed above, if the priority shifts from growth and development to subsidy and corruption, both wealth generation and the ability to distribute newly generated wealth will go down. Hence the rejection of congress by people.
The key to india's statble growth is priorirty to growth oriented policies with humane wealth distribution policies.
truthbetold- Posts : 6799
Join date : 2011-06-07
Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by confuzzled dude Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:44 am
truthbetold wrote:Merlot and CD
1. On the basis of using same metrics, poverty rate does show improvement. For a non political serious observer, these numbers are based on inadequate poverty base lines. India and A.P. has probably 50% of its population below what can be estimated as poverty line.
2. The improvement above should be compared between the rate of decline of poverty rate before 1990s and after 1990s. The strategic shift of economic policies caused a dramatic change in the rate of poverty rate (using the govt definition). The fundamental that this fact supports is that you have to have growth oriented policies to create wealth. Once you create wealth, the pull of indian socalled socialist policies, irrespective of party in governance there will be a reduction in poverty.
But as VP pointed above, if the priority shifts from growth and development to subsidy and corruption, both wealth generation and the ability to distribute newly generated wealth will go down. Hence the rejection of congress by people.
The key to india's statble growth is priorirty to growth oriented policies with humane wealth distribution policies.
-> You don't wait till you create wealth to help poor, says world bank.
Bank urges developing countries to 'enhance growth with policies that allocate more resources to the extreme poor'
In a report the bank said that while economic growth remains vital for reducing poverty, it has its limits. "Countries need to complement efforts to enhance growth with policies that allocate more resources to the extreme poor," it said.
"These resources can be distributed through the growth process itself, by promoting more inclusive growth, or through government programmes, such as conditional and direct cash transfers."
https://such.forumotion.com/t22234-world-bank-growth-alone-can-t-end-poverty
confuzzled dude- Posts : 10205
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Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by truthbetold Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:51 pm
First notice the word extreme poor. then it is world bank talking. since when are ysr supporters quoting world bank.
you have also ignored my emphasis on the balance between resource allocation to growth and distribution. in India you need to have poverty fighting programmes just to maintain social peace. But when politicos indulge in huge unmaintainable free giveaways, to win elections, that will drain the limited resources for growth and result in anemic wealth creation. that is what happened before 1990s. that hurt Indian poor more than Indian middle class.
The 1990s change forced more resources to growth and resulting huge poverty reduction through the best method called job creation.
the discussion is between spending money to create long term growth vs populist waste of scarce resources for winning elections.
you have also ignored my emphasis on the balance between resource allocation to growth and distribution. in India you need to have poverty fighting programmes just to maintain social peace. But when politicos indulge in huge unmaintainable free giveaways, to win elections, that will drain the limited resources for growth and result in anemic wealth creation. that is what happened before 1990s. that hurt Indian poor more than Indian middle class.
The 1990s change forced more resources to growth and resulting huge poverty reduction through the best method called job creation.
the discussion is between spending money to create long term growth vs populist waste of scarce resources for winning elections.
truthbetold- Posts : 6799
Join date : 2011-06-07
Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by confuzzled dude Tue Apr 29, 2014 7:35 pm
Agreed but it doesn't appear to be the case with A.P; growth sustained during YSR's period.truthbetold wrote:First notice the word extreme poor. then it is world bank talking. since when are ysr supporters quoting world bank.
you have also ignored my emphasis on the balance between resource allocation to growth and distribution. in India you need to have poverty fighting programmes just to maintain social peace. But when politicos indulge in huge unmaintainable free giveaways, to win elections, that will drain the limited resources for growth and result in anemic wealth creation. that is what happened before 1990s. that hurt Indian poor more than Indian middle class.
The 1990s change forced more resources to growth and resulting huge poverty reduction through the best method called job creation.
the discussion is between spending money to create long term growth vs populist waste of scarce resources for winning elections.
confuzzled dude- Posts : 10205
Join date : 2011-05-08
Re: Reduction in poverty 1993-2012: Guess who tops the list
by truthbetold Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:31 pm
CD,
My argument is about a larger area (India) and larger time frame (before 1990 vs after 1990).
My argument is about a larger area (India) and larger time frame (before 1990 vs after 1990).
truthbetold- Posts : 6799
Join date : 2011-06-07
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