Ruskies will take east of Danieper river - eastern half

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:02 pm

of Ukraine...within months.

The Russians cannot afford to give West the access to Black sea, and hence the immediate take over of crimea. This assures that Black Sea and the Naval ports will be under direct Russian control. Russia also cannot have a pro-western Ukraine right next to its borders. it needs a Buffer nation to take the absorb the pressure and give depth. All major powers want to fight their wars outside its borders. The best option for Ruskies is to split Ukraine and control the richer and more russian-dominated eastern region.

Ukraine may look like the divided germany of the 60s. But this is different as the eastern Ukraine is more loyal to ruskies due to demographic connection.

by Idéfix Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:30 pm

I think Putin will not go that far. If his Georgia adventure is any indication he will use Crimea to prove the point to Ukraine, and then seek to have his man in power in Kyiv. That way the west can't keep the pressure on him too long. If he goes beyond Crimea into Ukraine proper then he risks too much downside from the west and at home.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:57 pm

Idéfix wrote:I think Putin will not go that far. If his Georgia adventure is any indication he will use Crimea to prove the point to Ukraine, and then seek to have his man in power in Kyiv. That way the west can't keep the pressure on him too long. If he goes beyond Crimea into Ukraine proper then he risks too much downside from the west and at home.

What pressure are we talking about here? This is not 1990,and the US is downsizing its ARMY. Euro economy is in trouble and US economy is just ok, and has its plateful dealing with the Dragon.

If anything, its the Europeans who has to think twice before crossing the Ruskies path at this time. Germany the only real power in Europe cannot afford to antagonize russia as it gets its gas from there as do much of the eastern europe. At best, they can pay lip service. And Ruskies are not even giving out daily statements to appease anyone. They are going about their "action plan" methodically.

it is THEIR neighborhood and others dare not step into it. West should be happy to have split the eastern Europe from the Soviets.

by confuzzled dude Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:49 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote: They are going about their "action plan" methodically.

What is that? putting USSR back together!

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:56 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote: They are going about their "action plan" methodically.
What is that? putting USSR back together!

Perhaps....notices how Russians behave when it comes to its former soviet states (Ukraine, Kazhaks, Uzebeks, belarus, Georgia, Azerbaijan, etc) and former Soviet BLOC states like Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, romania, etc. The Bloc is now firmly on the west side. But, Ruskies will not allow their own Siviet clinet states to separate that easily.

Putin has been trying to rebuild the former Soviet glory. Their client states may not become part of the same country but certainly will not cross the ruskies.

by Idéfix Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:54 pm

I think Europe and America will take any invasion of Ukraine proper far more seriously than the takeover of Crimea. Crimea was already strongly pro Russia and in de facto Russian control. Eastern Ukraine is different.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:03 pm

Idéfix wrote:I think Europe and America will take any invasion of Ukraine proper far more seriously than the takeover of Crimea. Crimea was already strongly pro Russia and in de facto Russian control. Eastern Ukraine is different.

Naww...they would not do diddly even if Ukraine is taken over by Ruskies...Ruskies will not take over the whole Ukraine - they would not want to antagonize the people. They will do a Georgia on them - split Ukraine into 2 zones and find agreeable leaders and and Ukraine will stay "independent" and they and Ruskies will live happily ever after.

by Rishi Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:20 pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE_%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B4%D0%BE.jpg

>>>Black sea and Ukraine. Looks nice.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sun Mar 02, 2014 2:39 am

....Looks like the divide will be more along the (traditional) North-South

by confuzzled dude Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:55 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

....Looks like the divide will be more along the (traditional) North-South

Unlike the US & West whose modus operandi is to leave the weaker sections exposed wherever they meddle, Russia is trying to protect the minorities, what's the big deal.

by MaxEntropy_Man Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:57 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

....Looks like the divide will be more along the (traditional) North-South

Unlike the US & West whose modus operandi is to leave the weaker sections exposed wherever they meddle, Russia is trying to protect the minorities, what's the big deal.

you really think that's what putin is trying to do? protect the minorities? the minorities also comprise of islamic tatars, some of his favorite people.

by confuzzled dude Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:48 pm

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

....Looks like the divide will be more along the (traditional) North-South

Unlike the US & West whose modus operandi is to leave the weaker sections exposed wherever they meddle, Russia is trying to protect the minorities, what's the big deal.

you really think that's what putin is trying to do? protect the minorities? the minorities also comprise of islamic tatars, some of his favorite people.

American involvement usually revolves around its self-serving interests too.. there isn't much room to discuss moral righteousness in these matters.

by confuzzled dude Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:09 pm

An interesting piece

Britain and France did not want the Russian Empire to take over the Middle East, as it might have done if Istanbul fell to the Tsar. Britain reached India from the Mediterranean through Egypt and the Red Sea or through Syria-Iraq and the Persian Gulf. London did not want St. Petersburg to have the ability to cut it off from its rich Indian possessions. Likewise the French had clients in Lebanon and were a major power in the Mediterranean, and did not want Russia supplanting them

by truthbetold Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:10 pm

CD

putin and china have been on the wrong side of history for the past several years. check who is supporting syria's assad.

by confuzzled dude Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:38 pm

truthbetold wrote:CD

putin and china have been on the wrong side of history for the past several years. check who is supporting syria's assad.

I don't consider supporting al-Qaeda in guise of supporting rebels as being on the right side either Smile

by Idéfix Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:55 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

....Looks like the divide will be more along the (traditional) North-South

Unlike the US & West whose modus operandi is to leave the weaker sections exposed wherever they meddle, Russia is trying to protect the minorities, what's the big deal.

you really think that's what putin is trying to do? protect the minorities? the minorities also comprise of islamic tatars, some of his favorite people.
American involvement usually revolves around its self-serving interests too.. there isn't much room to discuss moral righteousness in these matters.

But this is a false equivalence. I do think, for example, that the US violated international law when it invaded Iraq, but Russia's actions in Crimea are more serious violations. You can't condone what Putin is doing, even if you did not like what Bush or Obama did.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:20 pm

Idéfix wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

....Looks like the divide will be more along the (traditional) North-South

Unlike the US & West whose modus operandi is to leave the weaker sections exposed wherever they meddle, Russia is trying to protect the minorities, what's the big deal.

you really think that's what putin is trying to do? protect the minorities? the minorities also comprise of islamic tatars, some of his favorite people.
American involvement usually revolves around its self-serving interests too.. there isn't much room to discuss moral righteousness in these matters.
But this is a false equivalence. I do think, for example, that the US violated international law when it invaded Iraq, but Russia's actions in Crimea are more serious violations. You can't condone what Putin is doing, even if you did not like what Bush or Obama did.

International laws are like Indian Laws - no need to follow and no chance of punishment for any violations.

There are only National laws and national interests. The powerful ones violate it at will with convenient justification, and the powerless ones are unable to violate it even if they are justified.

by Kris Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:57 am

confuzzled dude wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

....Looks like the divide will be more along the (traditional) North-South

Unlike the US & West whose modus operandi is to leave the weaker sections exposed wherever they meddle, Russia is trying to protect the minorities, what's the big deal.

you really think that's what putin is trying to do? protect the minorities? the minorities also comprise of islamic tatars, some of his favorite people.
American involvement usually revolves around its self-serving interests too.. there isn't much room to discuss moral righteousness in these matters.

>>>No, there is no moral righteousness issue here. It comes down to protecting one's own backyard. What you are constrained by is the point at which the costs exceed the benefits. The west has some additional things to worry about like the press and public outcry. I will grant you that may be marginal due to an apathetic or inadequately informed public, but there will be a clamor when it hits their pocketbook. With communism, those nuances either don't figure in at all or only to a very minimal extent. If Putin is making noises about protecting minority rights anywhere, it is lip service at best.

by truthbetold Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:46 am

A big power goes down in many steps. The big fall for communism and soviet union occurred in 1990s. But nationalist element came back through Putin in choatic russia. He was able to sell stability for a while. But economic needs of people of russia and its past satellite require fast growth, new technology and international investment and interest. As russian attempt to hold water in a basket with holes fails, these kind of retrograde incidents will happen. Russia can try to stave off the inevitable democratization of russia and its absorption into international capitalism for a while. As this final goal is reached russia will use/misuse its remnant military machine but it won't win any support inside and outside russia.

Putin's tactics are loser tactics in the long term with an occasional nationalist win.

Russia should find a democratic way to integrate with the rest of the world.

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