AAPL dropping afterhours

by Propagandhi711 Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:51 pm

down 10% or 50 bucks AH. wondering if 400 would be a good entry point or should stay away from the falling knife...

by Idéfix Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:54 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:down 10% or 50 bucks AH. wondering if 400 would be a good entry point or should stay away from the falling knife...

I would stay away. These are uncertain times for AAPL. If one can predict the iOS-Android-Windows Phone dynamic accurately, one can make good money. But it is a risky proposition. OTOH, I might change my mind if it drops below $300.

PS: The last time I made a call on the price level of AAPL, I was wrong.

by Propagandhi711 Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:58 pm

drop to 300 would be huge , but stranger things have happened. last time aapl was at this levels, it encountered a lot of resistance in 360-380 range before it broke through resistance and went on to make new highs. so am thinking there will be a firm support at that level. regardless, am watching DDD...it's an insane momemtum stock that's moving 5-10% daily. there is definately something to this 3D printing story but am scared to buy at such PEs...always have been.

by Idéfix Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:02 pm

DDD looks interesting. Hadn't looked into it before. I am tempted to play Greece. I think it's going to stabilize and values may be really depressed. Am going to do some research into how to get exposed to that.

by Propagandhi711 Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:08 pm

how would you play greece? there's a global shipping ETF called SEA that has has been a proxy for greece based shipping companies but dont think it would move with a bounce back in greece, it moves mostly based on dry shipping indices and whatnot. remaining ETFs with european exposure have very little greek component to them...

shoulda listened to my own advise and taken a small bite of RIMM...it bounced 120%

by Idéfix Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:09 pm

Wow, RIMM bounced that much? Why? I don't understand it. It's a dying company that has already been placed in its coffin, as I see it.

I will post more on playing Greece once I have a couple of ideas.

by Propagandhi711 Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:14 pm

what I heard from a talking head on bloomberg are three factors:
acquisition play,
going pvt play (like dell is considering)
possibility of good reception for the new smartphone device (BB10)

it was way depressed and bounced big time

by Idéfix Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:20 pm

I have to get plugged into investing chatter again. I have been out of it for over a year. It's dangerous to play when you are not aware of what's going on.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:01 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:down 10% or 50 bucks AH. wondering if 400 would be a good entry point or should stay away from the falling knife...

Everyone has his day.

AAPL has had its day.

by truthbetold Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:02 pm

3d manf is a great story. Nov Dec time frame govt.announced a billion dollar initiative to support this technology. two major stocks are 3d technologies and stratasys. both in 3d manf but one in metals and ssys is in plastics. ssys also acquired object another leaving player. so the bubble in 2012 lifted both leaders a bit fast. 4th quarter results are going to be generally good. the difficult question is in the short term is there room for growth? long term and at a better entry point this is a good technology story to invest.as always do your own research before investing.

by rawemotions Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:05 pm

Propagandhi711 wrote:drop to 300 would be huge , but stranger things have happened. last time aapl was at this levels, it encountered a lot of resistance in 360-380 range before it broke through resistance and went on to make new highs. so am thinking there will be a firm support at that level. regardless, am watching DDD...it's an insane momemtum stock that's moving 5-10% daily. there is definately something to this 3D printing story but am scared to buy at such PEs...always have been.

I agree, that 360 to 380 is a good entry point.
- Even the most pessimistic analyst has predicted 425.
- Cash per Share is around $43
- EPS of around 44.11, with growth of P/E expected to be in 10% range

300 would mean a Forward P/E of around 6+, excluding Cash, and including cash about 7+.
That would be ridiculously cheap. The only way things can become worse, is if AAPL starts showing negative earnings growth. For AAPL, this is a remote possibility because they have industry's lowest R&D expenses. Their Sales expenses is higher than their R&D expenses.

I presume if the market goes down, the sentiment could drag it down to 360-380.

by truthbetold Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:22 pm

As prop pointed above there is strong resistence at 350. Rumored aapl products are cheap i phone, apple tv and refreshments to existing stars.
Cheap phone - more revenue but lowers margins.
Refreshments - reduced margins
Apple tv - this could propel apple but content providers are powerful and not easy to work with. Without steve jobs, it is much more difficult. Can tim cook pull this one off? If he does aapl could run well for 3 to 4 years.
Aapl as a company will do well but aapl as a stock reached.cross roads because market pushed it too high too far. Sounds familiar, we know what happened in the past.

by Guest Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:23 pm

aapl had to drop. I bought 4 shares 2 weeks ago. makes sense.

by rawemotions Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:29 pm

truthbetold wrote:3d manf is a great story. Nov Dec time frame govt.announced a billion dollar initiative to support this technology. two major stocks are 3d technologies and stratasys. both in 3d manf but one in metals and ssys is in plastics. ssys also acquired object another leaving player. so the bubble in 2012 lifted both leaders a bit fast. 4th quarter results are going to be generally good. the difficult question is in the short term is there room for growth? long term and at a better entry point this is a good technology story to invest.as always do your own research before investing.

Nokia just announced that they are going to let those having 3-D Printers actually make cases for Lumia 820 series Mobile Phones. The first real application of 3-D Printing.
The question is how much does Makerbot costs, and which model needs to be bought.

What I am trying to understand is where China will figure, when 3-D printers take off.

China's dominance in low cost manufacturing of low skilled products just became irrelevant! Offcourse, China knows this , and hence has been making inroads into every high technology standard of relevance, to keep their coffers full with IP royalties, and is also getting into high technology manufacturing in a big way.

TBT, I did not know these companies. thanks for mentioning them.

Does anyone know where the raw materials used for 3-D Printing come from (Plastics, common alloys) and how does a common person buy this? Also what about 3-D Printer models (Makerbots) and their evolutionary roadmap. Does any particular company have vital spare parts of these models. What about other start-ups working on this space ?

I think it makes sense for HP to buy one of them. That will make HP relevant in new -age printing also.

by Propagandhi711 Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:18 am

truthbetold wrote:As prop pointed above there is strong resistence at 350. Rumored aapl products are cheap i phone, apple tv and refreshments to existing stars.
Cheap phone - more revenue but lowers margins.
Refreshments - reduced margins
Apple tv - this could propel apple but content providers are powerful and not easy to work with. Without steve jobs, it is much more difficult. Can tim cook pull this one off? If he does aapl could run well for 3 to 4 years.
Aapl as a company will do well but aapl as a stock reached.cross roads because market pushed it too high too far. Sounds familiar, we know what happened in the past.

I read your post and reread again...you meant product refresh as in replace...I don't see how those are low margin. Dunno what else is behind the curtains we can't see but institutions can see, but the latest disappointments appear to have a lot to do with component shortage....of course a lot of companies use that as an excuse to explain downturn in sales but does apple have to do that? I doubt they are that desperate

by Propagandhi711 Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:21 am

rawemotions wrote:
truthbetold wrote:3d manf is a great story. Nov Dec time frame govt.announced a billion dollar initiative to support this technology. two major stocks are 3d technologies and stratasys. both in 3d manf but one in metals and ssys is in plastics. ssys also acquired object another leaving player. so the bubble in 2012 lifted both leaders a bit fast. 4th quarter results are going to be generally good. the difficult question is in the short term is there room for growth? long term and at a better entry point this is a good technology story to invest.as always do your own research before investing.

Nokia just announced that they are going to let those having 3-D Printers actually make cases for Lumia 820 series Mobile Phones. The first real application of 3-D Printing.
The question is how much does Makerbot costs, and which model needs to be bought.

What I am trying to understand is where China will figure, when 3-D printers take off.

China's dominance in low cost manufacturing of low skilled products just became irrelevant! Offcourse, China knows this , and hence has been making inroads into every high technology standard of relevance, to keep their coffers full with IP royalties, and is also getting into high technology manufacturing in a big way.

TBT, I did not know these companies. thanks for mentioning them.

Does anyone know where the raw materials used for 3-D Printing come from (Plastics, common alloys) and how does a common person buy this? Also what about 3-D Printer models (Makerbots) and their evolutionary roadmap. Does any particular company have vital spare parts of these models. What about other start-ups working on this space ?

I think it makes sense for HP to buy one of them. That will make HP relevant in new -age printing also.

Right now it's just these two, stratasys and Ddd are the only publicly traded ones with stratospheric valuations..

by Guest Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:23 am

Propagandhi711 wrote:
rawemotions wrote:
truthbetold wrote:3d manf is a great story. Nov Dec time frame govt.announced a billion dollar initiative to support this technology. two major stocks are 3d technologies and stratasys. both in 3d manf but one in metals and ssys is in plastics. ssys also acquired object another leaving player. so the bubble in 2012 lifted both leaders a bit fast. 4th quarter results are going to be generally good. the difficult question is in the short term is there room for growth? long term and at a better entry point this is a good technology story to invest.as always do your own research before investing.

Nokia just announced that they are going to let those having 3-D Printers actually make cases for Lumia 820 series Mobile Phones. The first real application of 3-D Printing.
The question is how much does Makerbot costs, and which model needs to be bought.

What I am trying to understand is where China will figure, when 3-D printers take off.

China's dominance in low cost manufacturing of low skilled products just became irrelevant! Offcourse, China knows this , and hence has been making inroads into every high technology standard of relevance, to keep their coffers full with IP royalties, and is also getting into high technology manufacturing in a big way.

TBT, I did not know these companies. thanks for mentioning them.

Does anyone know where the raw materials used for 3-D Printing come from (Plastics, common alloys) and how does a common person buy this? Also what about 3-D Printer models (Makerbots) and their evolutionary roadmap. Does any particular company have vital spare parts of these models. What about other start-ups working on this space ?

I think it makes sense for HP to buy one of them. That will make HP relevant in new -age printing also.

Right now it's just these two, stratasys and Ddd are the only publicly traded ones with stratospheric valuations..

you need to calm down.

by truthbetold Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:43 pm

Prop,
in electronic industry refresh is a widely used term. History tells that electronic products will go down in price each cycle even with addition of new fetures. Iphone has strong competetion in samsung galaxy. Ipad is not alone anymore.
Apple can change margin dynamics with geographical strategy. That is expanding in china. There numbers are mind boggling.

by truthbetold Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:51 pm

Raw,
3d mfg has a bright future but it is not likely to compete.with traditional mfg. 3d for another decade will be a niche mfg catering to customization mfg.
Read ssys and ddd annual reports and check their web sites.
Two important caveats - company performannce and stock performance do not always move in the same direction and long term success is different from short term bubbles.

by Idéfix Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:55 pm

panini press wrote:I will post more on playing Greece once I have a couple of ideas.

Here is something I am watching closely: GREK. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3AGREK&ei=txEQUbjtDZ6-lgOUzwE

Anyone have any opinions on playing this?

by b_A Mon Feb 04, 2013 10:51 pm

panini press wrote:
panini press wrote:I will post more on playing Greece once I have a couple of ideas.
Here is something I am watching closely: GREK. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3AGREK&ei=txEQUbjtDZ6-lgOUzwE

Anyone have any opinions on playing this?

Buying greece , that too when it is close to 2 yr high ?
You are a brave man.
For what it's worth , my amateurish chart reading skills , tell me that it will be below 14 soon.

by Idéfix Mon Feb 04, 2013 10:52 pm

I am in a wait-and-watch mode. Am considering picking it up if it has a big fall. But I know, it is rather high risk.

by nevada Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:10 pm

PP, did you buy any NFLX recently? I remember you once played it for a $10-15 bounce. It has shot up like crazy in the past few days.

by Idéfix Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:23 pm

nevada wrote:PP, did you buy any NFLX recently? I remember you once played it for a $10-15 bounce. It has shot up like crazy in the past few days.

No, I just got some money moved into my brokerage account after a long break. I remember I used to play it in the $110-120 range, and after their management goofups, I played it $75-85. I just checked their current price -- no way I am getting in at $175. Perhaps if it drops to $120 I will get in.

by b_A Mon Apr 01, 2013 9:44 pm

b_A wrote:
panini press wrote:
panini press wrote:I will post more on playing Greece once I have a couple of ideas.
Here is something I am watching closely: GREK. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3AGREK&ei=txEQUbjtDZ6-lgOUzwE

Anyone have any opinions on playing this?

Buying greece , that too when it is close to 2 yr high ?
You are a brave man.
For what it's worth , my amateurish chart reading skills , tell me that it will be below 14 soon.

My chart reading skills are not so bad, eh ?
GREK is at 14.4 and in a strong downtrend.

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