Sidhartha Varadarajan: Best to take opinion poll predictions with a pinch of salt

by Guest Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:43 am

Uttar Pradesh, of course, remains the biggest enigma. True, the NDTV survey shows the BJP winning more than 50 seats on the basis of a 38 per cent vote share. But opinion polls have always tended to underestimate the performance of the BSP and the SP. The choice of candidates and the constituency-level interplay between national politics and local factors, including personalities and caste allegiances, have complicated the mix further.

The BSP, for example, has fielded a large number of Muslim and Brahmin candidates and this will have its own impact. Attempts to communalise the campaign by BJP and SP leaders like Amit Shah and Azam Khan are also likely to affect voter behaviour. As long as the Modi campaign was confined to promising development, it was easy for fence-sitters to cross over to his side. But if there is a chance of communal polarization increasing, many Hindu voters may think twice about pressing the 'kamal' button while Muslim voters will almost certainly vote strategically in different constituencies to try and ensure the defeat of the BJP. This means the fate of UP will likely only be settled on the last day of polling - May 12 - and that opinion poll predictions for India's largest state are perhaps best to be taken with a pinch of salt.

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-news/opinion-bjp-and-allies-at-275-508887?pfrom=home-topstories

by Vakavaka Pakapaka Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:39 am

So, is anyone giving Varadarajan a job? The poor guy was fired by N Ram.

by rawemotions Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:13 pm

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:So, is anyone giving Varadarajan a job? The poor guy was fired by N Ram.

We dont need Siddarth to tell us this. Every tom dick and Harry knows Opinion Polls mean nothing. Infact I had said before that NDTV is trying to Lull NDA to complacency by projecting huge # of seats.
At the end of the day with four cornered contest and tactical block voting by Sunni Muslims under the Ashraf Dominated leadership, NDA needs to assume that they are going to get just 10-15 from UP and work hard to increase it. Otherwise it will turn out like Gujarat in 2009, where despite Modi they underperformed. Winning is by clever arithmetic and get out the vote movement, which the Muslims Excel through the Mosques.

Guys like Siddarth are building background profiles to explain a very plausible underwhelming performance, if they win they will say some non-sensical reason about Communal Polarization, and then he will claim he was the first one to predict. Zoya and Kulkarni are saying the same.
We should treat Zoya's words seriously. she after all has the inner track to both Congress and Muslims. Congress is hell bent on wrecking Modi's chances in UP and are playing a quite gate in the background with BSP and SP. They are effectively in an alliance.

So Modi/BJP is fighting an alliance of all three parties. Things do look difficult for NDA in UP. If people do not vote for Modi despte this development plank (probably the first time in history), then they deserve the Kichdi government they would get, where people of one religion would be given favors and the rest would be treated as second class citizens (even though it is blatantly against the constitution)

No wonder Modi says they are doing WWF.

by confuzzled dude Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:19 pm

rawemotions wrote:
Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:So, is anyone giving Varadarajan a job? The poor guy was fired by N Ram.
We dont need Siddarth to tell us this. Every tom dick and Harry knows Opinion Polls mean nothing. Infact I had said before that NDTV is trying to Lull NDA to complacency by projecting huge # of seats.
At the end of the day with four cornered contest and tactical block voting by Sunni Muslims under the Ashraf Dominated leadership, NDA needs to assume that they are going to get just 10-15 from UP and work hard to increase it. Otherwise it will turn out like Gujarat in 2009, where despite Modi they underperformed. Winning is by clever arithmetic and get out the vote movement, which the Muslims Excel through the Mosques.

Guys like Siddarth are building background profiles to explain a very plausible underwhelming performance, if they win they will say some non-sensical reason about Communal Polarization, and then he will claim he was the first one to predict. Zoya and Kulkarni are saying the same.
We should treat Zoya's words seriously. she after all has the inner track to both Congress and Muslims. Congress is hell bent on wrecking Modi's chances in UP and are playing a quite gate in the background with BSP and SP. They are effectively in an alliance.

So Modi/BJP is fighting an alliance of all three parties. Things do look difficult for NDA in UP. If people do not vote for Modi despte this development plank (probably the first time in history), then they deserve the Kichdi government they would get, where people of one religion would be given favors and the rest would be treated as second class citizens (even though it is blatantly against the constitution)

No wonder Modi says they are doing WWF.

cold feet, again?

by Merlot Daruwala Wed Apr 16, 2014 2:07 am

confuzzled dude wrote:

cold feet, again?

Diffidence defines the chaddi. Also: persecution complex, fear of Muslims and victimhood. So what's new?

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Sidhartha Varadarajan: Best to take opinion poll predictions with a pinch of salt

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