Sidhartha Varadarajan's brilliant analysis of the post poll scenario

by Guest Mon May 12, 2014 10:23 am

http://www.ndtv.com/article/opinion/bjp-s-danger-mark-is-180-200-seats-522877?pfrom=home-topstories

by smArtha Mon May 12, 2014 10:29 am

Rashmun wrote:http://www.ndtv.com/article/opinion/bjp-s-danger-mark-is-180-200-seats-522877?pfrom=home-topstories

What is so 'brilliant' about this commonsense driven analysis? This is well known even before a single vote was polled.

by Guest Mon May 12, 2014 10:48 am

smArtha wrote:
Rashmun wrote:http://www.ndtv.com/article/opinion/bjp-s-danger-mark-is-180-200-seats-522877?pfrom=home-topstories

What is so 'brilliant' about this commonsense driven analysis? This is well known even before a single vote was polled.

I liked how he made all the possible permutations and combinations in the post poll scenario crystal clear leaving no scope for any ambiguity. I appreciated particularly his analysis of the situation in Telangana, Seemandhra, TN, Orissa, and West Bengal.

Something interesting in his analysis: Mamata will support a Modi govt, we knew that. But whether Jagan, Jayalalitha, and Naveen Patnaik support a Modi govt from inside or outside depends on whether the BJP or its allies do well in their region. Even if the BJP and its allies pick up a few seats in TN and Orissa JJ and Naveen may not support a Modi govt since they would recognize that the BJP is posing a long term threat to their own future. Ditto for Jagan; if TDP-BJP do well in Seemandhra then Jagan may not support a Modi govt.

by smArtha Mon May 12, 2014 11:20 am

Rashmun wrote:
Something interesting in his analysis: Mamata will support a Modi govt, we knew that. But whether Jagan, Jayalalitha, and Naveen Patnaik support a Modi govt from inside or outside depends on whether the BJP or its allies do well in their region. Even if the BJP and its allies pick up a few seats in TN and Orissa JJ and Naveen may not support a Modi govt since they would recognize that the BJP is posing a long term threat to their own future. Ditto for Jagan; if TDP-BJP do well in Seemandhra then Jagan may not support a Modi govt.

I don't think Mamata will support Modi. May be NDA without Modi but not one headed by Modi.
Jagan will support NDA, if his party is going to form a State Govt. If not, the party has no other obligations (other than protection from CBI/ED cases against Jagan) to support NDA with or without Modi. Jayalalitha is most likely supporting NDA and Naveen Patnaik is 50-50 chances.

by Guest Mon May 12, 2014 11:32 am

smArtha wrote:
Rashmun wrote:
Something interesting in his analysis: Mamata will support a Modi govt, we knew that. But whether Jagan, Jayalalitha, and Naveen Patnaik support a Modi govt from inside or outside depends on whether the BJP or its allies do well in their region. Even if the BJP and its allies pick up a few seats in TN and Orissa JJ and Naveen may not support a Modi govt since they would recognize that the BJP is posing a long term threat to their own future. Ditto for Jagan; if TDP-BJP do well in Seemandhra then Jagan may not support a Modi govt.

I don't think Mamata will support Modi. May be NDA without Modi but not one headed by Modi.
Jagan will support NDA, if his party is going to form a State Govt. If not, the party has no other obligations (other than protection from CBI/ED cases against Jagan) to support NDA with or without Modi. Jayalalitha is most likely supporting NDA and Naveen Patnaik is 50-50 chances.

sorry, that should have been Mamata will not support a Modi govt. According to Varadarajan there are reports of BJP getting 4-6 seats in Orissa and threatening to emerge as the principal opposition party in the future. Given this scenario, Naveen will not want to support BJP. But if BJP does badly in Orissa, then Naveen would be more open to do business with Modi. Ditto for Jayalalitha. If the BJP led front wins 3-5 seats in TN, then JJ will not support a Modi govt. But if it fails to open its account then she will almost certainly support a Modi govt. Similarly for Jagan: if the TDP/BJP do well in Seemandhra then Jagan will not support a Modi govt; if they do not do well, then he will support a Modi govt.

by Vakavaka Pakapaka Mon May 12, 2014 12:06 pm

Rashmun,

You are wasting your time and energy.

MT and her gang are in trouble. You might as well give up. All exit polls are predicting Modi's win.

I am happy that in AP assembly election, exit polls show that CBN's TDP is ahead of Corrupt Jagan's Odarpu party.

Looks like good days are ahead for AP and India.

Neech Garibi Hatao.

Vadra's Banana Republic is closing shop.

by Guest Mon May 12, 2014 12:10 pm

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:Rashmun,

You are wasting your time and energy.

MT and her gang are in trouble. You might as well give up. All exit polls are predicting Modi's win.

I am happy that in AP assembly election, exit polls show that CBN's TDP is ahead of Corrupt Jagan's Odarpu party.

Looks like good days are ahead for AP and India.

Neech Garibi Hatao.

Vadra's Banana Republic is closing shop.

don't count your chickens before they hatch. Also:

http://qz.com/201066/india-election-polls-have-incorrectly-predicted-a-bjp-sweep-in-the-last-two-national-elections/

by Vakavaka Pakapaka Mon May 12, 2014 12:23 pm

The women look like tribals. I wonder where they are from - Araku? Labadi? Chenchu?

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