Is obama on right track on Ukraine?

by truthbetold Fri Apr 18, 2014 7:40 pm

Russia is not showing signs of pulling back the Russian nationalists who occupied towns in eastern Ukraine. The agreement requires Russian action but Putin does not seem to think it is necessary.

Eastern European countries are divided on sanctions. Germans are agreeing but with reluctance.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-18/putin-gas-splits-eastern-eu-over-russia-sanctions.html

Obama already declared that military options are not on table. What next? Iran model sanctions. Read below:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-18/u-s-said-to-have-warned-money-managers-of-more-russia-sanctions.html

Republicans are likely to belittle these efforts as too little too late. They want muscular response.

What do you think? Is Obama right? Is he soft pedaling?

I think Obama is on right track. Russia will feel economic pinch soon enough through ordinary citizen action. Putin's nationalist rise will be snuffed out by ordinary citizens daily life needs. As Iran proved, bank transactions could choke putin golden run.

by Kris Sat Apr 19, 2014 3:27 am

truthbetold wrote:Russia is not showing signs of pulling back the Russian nationalists who occupied towns in eastern Ukraine. The agreement requires Russian action but Putin does not seem to think it is necessary.

Eastern European countries are divided on sanctions. Germans are agreeing but with reluctance.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-18/putin-gas-splits-eastern-eu-over-russia-sanctions.html

Obama already declared that military options are not on table. What next? Iran model sanctions. Read below:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-18/u-s-said-to-have-warned-money-managers-of-more-russia-sanctions.html

Republicans are likely to belittle these efforts as too little too late. They want muscular response.

What do you think? Is Obama right? Is he soft pedaling?

I think Obama is on right track. Russia will feel economic pinch soon enough through ordinary citizen action. Putin's nationalist rise will be snuffed out by ordinary citizens daily life needs. As Iran proved, bank transactions could choke putin golden run.

>>>TBT, I am not sure what a muscular response would entail. Boots on the ground would be unthinkable, considering the adversary is Russia. Are sanctions the way to go? Unfortunately, there really is no other option. It is not as though Obama can work some instantaneous magic and make this situation go away. I am not however very optimistic that Putin will fold. Remember he is riding a nationalistic wave and his perception of the situation is probably not all that different from the Russian public's. There is a definite feeling that the West has designs on Ukraine and has the intent to squeeze Russia. Putin's reaction is to go on the offensive. Zakaria had said some time ago that Putin is making this up as he is going along. I don't think so. This is straight out of his playbook on how to handle contingencies. He also wants to send a message to the West of how he will react if anyone wants to intrude on his near-abroad.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:05 am

The soviets may feel the pinch. But, they will make sure Europe will feel the pinch. oil/gas (US thinks it can replace the Ruskies), Syria, China, Iran. And guess what... Ruskies can form a mini network of all the Pariahs into a Pariah alliance. They have the weapons, energy.

It will take a long time but surely Ruskies will suffer more but the West will not escape without a scratch.

by Kris Sat Apr 19, 2014 10:33 am

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:The soviets may feel the pinch. But, they will make sure Europe will feel the pinch. oil/gas (US thinks it can replace the Ruskies), Syria, China, Iran. And guess what... Ruskies can form a mini network of all the Pariahs into a Pariah alliance. They have the weapons, energy.

It will take a long time but surely Ruskies will suffer more but the West will not escape without a scratch.

>>And there is also China. The Russians would have done a cost/benefit analysis. These are not impulsive moves.

by truthbetold Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:45 am

Uppili
if you are implying that Russia is no Iran and it can cause pain to west even in economics, you will not have an argument from me. Putin is riding a popular wave at this time. however when economy suffers middle class reacts. Russia with its limited democracy may contain dissatisfaction for some time. but at some point in a year or two Russia will implode if putin does not change course.

by Kris Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:56 am

truthbetold wrote:Uppili
if you are implying that Russia is no Iran and it can cause pain to west even in economics, you will not have an argument from me. Putin is riding a popular wave at this time. however when economy suffers middle class reacts. Russia with its limited democracy may contain dissatisfaction for some time. but at some point in a year or two Russia will implode if putin does not change course.

>>>Putin is working with that time table. It's kind of a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' thing for him too. The west making inroads into Ukraine won't sit well with the Russian public either. This guy is cunning and is a tactician and will change course once he has Ukraine under his belt. He has a few more cards he can play. Read my comment on China and he can also fish in troubled waters i.e the pariahs Uppili refers to.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:09 pm

truthbetold wrote:Uppili
if you are implying that Russia is no Iran and it can cause pain to west even in economics, you will not have an argument from me. Putin is riding a popular wave at this time. however when economy suffers middle class reacts. Russia with its limited democracy may contain dissatisfaction for some time. but at some point in a year or two Russia will implode if putin does not change course.

Middle class rising in Russia....All it takes for Putin is to act like the old-time dictator. You really think Russia has democracy???

After all Putin (and Medvedev) manipulated the system to remain in power for the last 12 years - in the garb of democracy.

Kris: I already included China in my list of "Pariah" states.

India has to tread carefully as it will be wooed by both sides. Has to make sure does not side with either one decisively. Perhaps, time to restart the non-aligned gang.

by Kris Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:15 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Uppili
if you are implying that Russia is no Iran and it can cause pain to west even in economics, you will not have an argument from me. Putin is riding a popular wave at this time. however when economy suffers middle class reacts. Russia with its limited democracy may contain dissatisfaction for some time. but at some point in a year or two Russia will implode if putin does not change course.

Middle class rising in Russia....All it takes for Putin is to act like the old-time dictator. You really think Russia has democracy???

After all Putin (and Medvedev) manipulated the system to remain in power for the last 12 years - in the garb of democracy.

Kris: I already included China in my list of "Pariah" states.

India has to tread carefully as it will be wooed by both sides. Has to make sure does not side with either one decisively. Perhaps, time to restart the non-aligned gang.

>>> I meant China in the sense of superpower backing. I know the relationship won't be without issues, but the 'enemy of my enemy is a friend' scenario would apply here at least for a limited time frame. The pariah states like Syria would be the small ticket games to keep the west on its toes.

P.S. 'Non-alignment' would come in handy here, albeit not the Nehruvian variety. Smile

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:48 pm

Kris wrote:
Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Uppili
if you are implying that Russia is no Iran and it can cause pain to west even in economics, you will not have an argument from me. Putin is riding a popular wave at this time. however when economy suffers middle class reacts. Russia with its limited democracy may contain dissatisfaction for some time. but at some point in a year or two Russia will implode if putin does not change course.

Middle class rising in Russia....All it takes for Putin is to act like the old-time dictator. You really think Russia has democracy???

After all Putin (and Medvedev) manipulated the system to remain in power for the last 12 years - in the garb of democracy.

Kris: I already included China in my list of "Pariah" states.

India has to tread carefully as it will be wooed by both sides. Has to make sure does not side with either one decisively. Perhaps, time to restart the non-aligned gang.

>>> I meant China in the sense of superpower backing. I know the relationship won't be without issues, but the 'enemy of my enemy is a friend' scenario would apply here at least for a limited time frame. The pariah states like Syria would be the small ticket games to keep the west on its toes.

P.S. 'Non-alignment' would come in handy here, albeit not the Nehruvian variety.

If Russia expands its influence (to Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and manages to form alliance with client states - Venezuela, North Korea, Syria, Egypt (its coming), then the West has only to blame itself for being greedy and overzealous in expanding its NATO right to the door so as to scare the bear.

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